This blog is my trading diary. It is an attempt to organise my analysis and thoughts. I follow the charting methods given in JUST NIFTY blog by Ilango sir and so the charts would have striking resemblance to his charts. I am indebted to Ilango sir for having made this blog possible for me.

August 3, 2012

BANK NIFTY and INTRADAY UPDATE


Bullish Gartley/BEARISH BAT PATTERN  in Bank NIFTY:

Analysis for Aug 3

Nifty defended the 20 DMA yesterday but today at opening it opened below the 20 DMA - indicating weakness. Todays close below 5220 would set the way for further down moves.


The weekly charts clearly shows the formation of Contracting Triangle. Today being the weekend - Closing above the week 5EMA at 5191 is the minimum requirement for some more upsides.


Nifty Day Charts seems to be Highly Overbought and ready for correction. A close above 20 DMA/Day HEMA at 5220 is a must for more upsides. Hence correction is imminent to follow.

Harmonic pattern Chart: (REFER AUG2 WRITE-UP)



 Trade Table  
Current patternX-AB C (current)
BULLISH BAT PATTERN4770-534950325246
Trade initiatedSL EOD close above 5220  
SOLD at 5210NF on 3AUGProj for D  
 38.20%5164.00aprrox 100 DMA & 10 DMA
 50.00%5139.0050 DMA
 61.80%5113.00week LEMA
 78.60%5077.00 
at today's opening the Longs were closed at 5220NF and shorts were taken 




Developing Week Levels 
CLOSE 
PIVOT5201
HI EMA5337
LOW EMA5114
5 EMA5191
5 SMA5215
10 EMA5172
PrevHigh5164
Prev Low5032


CHECK LIST-DAY   
CLOSE52285 SMA5199
PIVOT52255EMA5204
HI EMA521910EMA5190
LOW EMA517013EMA5189
prev HI523750 Hr MA5161
prev LOW5210100 Hr MA5177
20 DMA5208200 Hr MA5214
100  DMA5151  
200 DMA5105  

August 2, 2012

Analysis for Aug 2

INTRADAY UPDATE BANK NIFTY HOUR CHART RISING WEDGE:


The Upmove in Rising wedge is resited by the TRENDLINE.


Analysis for August 2:
Nifty Closed the July month well above the Month 5 EMA and 20 DMA. While it is trying to defend the 20 DMA, Nifty is struggling hard to breakout above the 61.8% retr level of 5246 too. More upsides possible only on a breakout above 5246. Weak below 20 DMA.

The Rising wedge (CLICK HERE for july 31 chart) seems to have Broken and as per the charts of July 31 (CLICK HERE) - the Alternate 2 seems to be in place till 5246 above 61.8% is taken upward.



The Hour14 RSI and Hour Fmacd charts also exhibit -ve divergences - so breakdown of the rising wedge seems to be a possibility.

Bullish Bat Pattern:



Bullish Bat Pattern:XA - 4770 - 5349
B - 5032 - 50% of XA
C -  5246 - approx 61.8% of AB
Holding C, Proj for D:
38.2% - 5164
50% - 5139
61.8% - 5113
78.6% - 5077
88.6% - 5056

SYNOPSIS: THE SL FOR CURRENT POSITIONAL LONGS TO BE TRAILED TO EOD CLOSE BELOW 5210 - Corresponding to Day HEMA & 20 DMA.

Aggressive sell at current Levels - 5225NS  with Sl above 5250 - Previous High. If EOD close is below 5205 then the shorts are carried over positionally for the last leg D of the Bullish Bat Pattern.



CHECK LIST-DAY CLOSE52415 SMA5162 PIVOT52335EMA5193 HI EMA521010EMA5181 LOW EMA515113EMA5183 prev HI524620 Hr MA5207 prev LOW521350 Hr MA5149 20 DMA5213100 Hr MA5179 100  DMA5153200 Hr MA5212 200 DMA5105

Trade Table Current patternX-AB C (current) BULLISH BAT PATTERN4770-534950325246 Trade initiatedSL EOD close BELOW 5210 BOUGHT AT 5130NF JULY 27Proj for D 38.20%5164.00aprrox 100 DMA 50.00%5139.00Week HEMA 61.80%5113.00approx Mon LEMA 78.60%5077.00month Hema Sell at 5225 NS - aggressively with Sl above 5250 prev high.

July 30, 2012

Analysis for July 31

Intraday Update 12.30 PM:
RISING WEDGE in BANK NIFTY and NIFTY HOUR CHARTS:







ANALYSIS FOR JULY 31:
Nifty has painted a BULLISH picture with a Close above all Day Parameters - Day Pivot, Hema, 5EMA and LEMA. It was a Channel Breakout today with a GOLDEN CROSOVER - Inching steadily above all Hour - averages and Day 100 DMA to Close just below the 200 Hr MA and 20 DMA. An Hourly Close above the 200 Hr MA above 5205 would be the initial step for the upward momentum to continue.



The above chart clearly shows the Channel breakout with Golden Crossover - 50 SMA over 200 SMA.

Harmonic Pattern:

As per the Continuation of the 5-0 Bullish Pattern (CLICK HERE) - A Highly Bullish picture is seen with targets upto - 5390 - 5450 - 5500, 5600++ levels.




Considering the above chart
ALTERNATE-1 - Continuation of 5-0 Pattern:
Bullish 5-0 pattern:
XA - 4804 - 5020
B - 4770 - 113% retr of XA
Current C - 5349 - approx 224% retr of AB DONE
D - 5032 - 50% retr of BC - DONE
Projection for E:
50%- 5190.5 - DONE
61.8% - 5227.91
88.6% - 5312
113% - 5390
161.8% - 5544

This will fit with the EW scenario -
              Corrective A - 4770 -5349
              B - IF Completed at 5032 (50% of wave A)
              C - min A = 579 points = 5032+579 = 5611

Considering the ALternate -2:
Alternate -2 Development of Bullish Bat Pattern:
XA - 4770 - 5349
B - 5032 - 50% of XA
Proj for C -
50% -5190 - Done
61.8% - 5227
78.6%- 5281
88.6% - 5312


Considering the EW Count- Untill Nifty surpasses the 88.6% retr above 5312 - the above scenario as depicted in chart would Hold good. i.e,

a.B - 5349 - 5032completed at 5032
b.B - 5032 - 52xx - 5312 - yet to be completed 52xx - 5312(currently 50% retr is over)
c.B - 49xx levels.

SYNOPSIS: -CONSIDERING THE BREAKOUT AND BEING THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH AN EOD CLOSE ABOVE THE MONTH 5 EMA - 5175-5180 LEVELS WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO THE NEXT MONTHLY LEVEL OF MONTH HEMA - 5340++ LEVELS.

 HOLD LONGS TRAILING SL TO 100 DMA - 5154 NS.


Trade Table
Current patternX-AB (CURRENT)
BULLISH BAT PATTERN4770-53495032
Trade initiatedSL EOD close BELOW 5150
BOUGHT AT 5130NF JULY 27Proj for C
50.00%5190 - DONE
61.80%5227.00Week HEMA
78.60%5281.00
88.60%5312.00month Hema

A BULLISH GARTLEY PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED IN BANK NIFTY WITH ST TARGETS AT 10550 - 10650++ (CLICK HERE)


Developing Month Levels
CLOSE
PIVOT5194
HI EMA5344
LOW EMA4932
5 EMA5182
5 SMA5189
 High5349
LOW5032



CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE52005 SMA5116
PIVOT51795EMA5139
HI EMA517110EMA5155
LOW EMA510213EMA5164
prev HI520720 Hr MA5126
prev LOW513050 Hr MA5137
20 DMA5219100 Hr MA5190
100  DMA5154200 Hr MA5205
200 DMA5102