Analysis for June 13

Intraday Update:

Partbooked at 5135NF. Only 25% longs are remaining with SL EOD close Below 5100NS Day HEMA.


Intraday Update 1.15 PM:

A bearish Bat pattern is almost complete in Bank NIfty.

BEARISH BAT PATTERN:
XA -10645 - 8995
B - 9783 - approx 44.7% retr of XA
C - 9110 -  85.4% retr of AB
Projection for D:
9870 - 113% retr of BC
127% retr of BC - 9965
141.4% - 10061.62
161.8% - 10198.91

The 161.8% retracement - 10198.9 is achieved now. -ve divergence is also exhibited. Caution required in Longs now.

If this level is surpassed and bank Nifty closes above 10200 levels at EOD more upsides will be possible upto the next retracement level of:

200% retr -10456 and
224% - 10617. - For this levels to achieve NIFTY must close above the 100 DMA at EOD.


ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 13:
Nifty has closed well above the Week and Day Hema, and 5 EMA. Holding above the Day HEMA, it is likely to reach upto 100 Dma -5180-90.

The Bullish 5-0 Harmonic pattern (CLICK HERE)  is continuing and the initial projection of 161.8% comes to 5174 - near 100 DMA. If resisted at this level, then as per pattern, a 50 % retracement for the rise from 4770 - 5174 approx -  4975 - 5000 levels is to be expected.

If Nifty moves past the 100 DMA, then the next likely resistances are 5200 - ( Refer Weekly Harmonic Chart above) 50% of the retracement of AB surpassing it, then 5300 levels. This corresponds to the 224% retr of the Day chart.

Day Bar chart:  A Huge Bullish engulfing candle is formed with a Trendline breakout.

SYNOPSIS: Holding the Day HEMA the upmove would continue upto 5175-95 levels. Surpassing these levels and an EOD close above 100 DMA would lift Nifty to 5275-5300 levels.

	Trade Table
Current pattern	X-A	B(current)
0-5 pattern and Butterfly pattern (week)	4804 - 5020	4770
Trade initiated	SL Day HEMA - 5078
Bought at 4830NF on june 4	Proj for C
	113.00%	5052.00
	161.80%	5174.00
	224.00%	5330.00
Partbooked at 5030 NF on june 7

Part booking at 5175-90 levels would be a prudent measure.
AGGRESSIVE shorts can be initiated at the same levels with Strict SL of 5205NS. If EOD close is above 100 DMA then the shorts must be terminated and Longs to continue with revised SLof 100 DMA.

Week Levels
CLOSE	5068
PIVOT	4974
HI EMA	5072
LOW EMA	4850
5 EMA	4986
10 EMA	5046
PrevHigh	5084
Prev Low	4770

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5116	5 SMA	5057
PIVOT	5087	5EMA	4962
HI EMA	5078	10EMA	5005
LOW EMA	4986	13EMA	4993
prev HI	5129	20 Hr MA	5068
prev LOW	5015	50 Hr MA	4981
50 DMA	5086	100 Hr MA	4955
200 DMA	5063	200 Hr MA	4954
100  DMA	5192

Analysis for June 8

Intraday update 3.30 PM:

The current high of 5082 exactly meets the trendline joining from 5629, 5499, 5342 and 5279

Intradayupdate 3.00 pm:
Booked out Agressive shorts at 4990NF.


Nity reached 200 DMA and week Hema but closed below both. Upward movement would continue on a close above 5064 - 200 DMA  to reach 5170-75 levels near 100 DMA.

Hourly charts 14 RSI Fmacd charts and Day 5D and 9RSI charts show -ve divergence. Curently 200 DMA likely to act as resistance. If today's close is above 5065 then next week good upsides possibilities arises. Till then it is an aggressive sell at 5050 levels with 5065 SL on EOD basis.

0-5 Harmonic pattern:

The Bullish 5-0 starts at the 0 point, representing an extended down leg to begin the pattern at

X. The initial point X acts as the low of this prior substantial decline. After a quick reactive

bounce to the A point, the structure abruptly continues the decline, only to find support slightly

past the prior low at X. This is the failed wave 3 or wave 5 – in Elliot Wave terms – that

establishes the rest of the structure. However, the important limits from the Harmonic Trading

perspective requires that this X, A extension be at least a 1.13 but not greater than a 1.618.

After that impulsive failed wave is established, the BC leg rallies to at least a 1.618 extension

of the AB length but it does not exceed 2.24. Again, this tight range of 1.618-2.24 is a

defining element of the structure. If the 1.618 limit is not reached, the structure is not a valid

5-0.

As per the above pattern more steam is left upsides. If the 200 DMA is resisted and nifty closes EOD below the Day Hema then this pattern stand invalidated as only 113% retr is achieved upto 5052.

Developing Week levels
CLOSE
PIVOT	4960
HI EMA	5064
LOW EMA	4850
5 EMA	4980
10 EMA	5042
PrevHigh	5060
Prev Low	4770

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5050	5 SMA	4920
PIVOT	5039	5EMA	4962
HI EMA	4984	10EMA	4941
LOW EMA	4909	13EMA	4941
prev HI	5060	26DEMA	4978
prev LOW	5008	20 Hr MA	4963
50 DMA	5093	200 Hr MA	4971
200 DMA	5063

Trade Table:

	Trade Table
Current pattern	X-A	B(current)
0-5 pattern and Butterfly pattern (week)	4804 - 5020	4770
Trade initiated	SL Day HEMA - 4984
Bought at 4830NF on june 4	Proj for C
	113.00%	5052.00
	161.80%	5174.00
Partbooked at 5030 NF on june 6

Aggressive Trade		Reason for trade
Sold at 5030NF on june 6	SL EOD close above 5065	200 DMA and Week HEMA

Partbook at 4984 & hold if Hour Close below 4984 Else book out.

Analysis for May 31

Nifty Has closed above the Day Lema and 5EMA - indicating lack of downward momentum. Today being the Expiry and Month's close if Nifty Closes above 4937 - Month LEMA - and subsequently followed by tomorrow's weekly close above 5EMA, the Bulls task might be easier - Else Niftywould drift Lower.

WEEKLY HARMONIC PATTERN:

Developing Bullish Butterfly Pattern Holding 4788 low:
XA - 4531 - 5629
B -4788- approx 78.6% retr of XA.
Projections for C:38.2% retr of AB - 5109 
44.7% retr of AB - 5164 
50% - retr of AB - 5207
61.8% retr of AB - 5307

Considering the present down movement - the projections seems to be Highy Bullish. The above projections are valid HOLDING THE LOW OF 4788 - 4765. If Broken the next level to watch would be,
88.6% retr of XA - 4656 -which would then become the new B and the projections would vary accordingly.

The above Bullish weekly Projection is supported by the 5D lead indicator.

Nifty has found good channel support at 4788 in weekly charts.

A close above 4930-50 - today being the Month end and expiry is a must for further UPMOVES - as indicated by the DAy S Macd chart:

BEARISH CRAB PATTERN IN HOUR CHARTS:

Development of Bearish Crab Pattern:
XA - 5432 - 4788
B - 5020 - approx 38.2% retr of XA
Proj for C:38.2% - 4931 - corresponds to Month LEMA
44.7% -4916 - approx Day /Week LEMA
50% - 4904 - 
61.8% - 4876
78.6% -4837
88.6% - 4814

SYNOPSIS:
NIFTY IS LIKELY TO GATHER SUPPORTS AT 4905-4915 LEVELS (based on Day LEMA and Month LEMA) INITIALLY AND THE BOUNCE BACK WOULD BE DECIDING FACTOR FOR THE C TO COMPLETE AND THE BULLISH LEG D TO START of the Bearish Crab Pattern.

BUY AT 4905-4920 LEVELS WITH STRICT EOD STOPLOSS OF 4870.

Week levels		Month Levels
CLOSE	4920	CLOSE
PIVOT	4894	PIVOT	5006
HI EMA	5066	HI EMA	5370
LOW EMA	4918	LOW EMA	4937
5 EMA	4997	5 EMA	5128
5 SMA	5004	5 SMA	5216
PrevHigh	4956	High	5280
Prev Low	4804	LOW	4789

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	4951	5 SMA	4954
PIVOT	4956	5EMA	4949
HI EMA	4972	10EMA	4941
LOW EMA	4924	13EMA	4949
prev HI	4971	26DEMA	5007
prev LOW	4945	20 Hr MA	4977
10 DMA	4913	50 Hr MA	4922
20 DMA	4955	100 Hr MA	4911
50 DMA	5134	200 Hr MA	5039
200 DMA	5077

	Trade Table
Current pattern	X-A	B(current)
Bearish Crab Pattern Developing	5432 - 4788	5020
Trade initiated	SL EOD 4870
Buy at 4905-4920 levels	Proj for C
	38.20%	4931.00
	50.00%	4904.00
	61.80%	4876.00
	78.60%	4837.00