Analysis for OCT 3

Nifty got resisted at the Month Lema of 5031 and fell upto the Day Lema of 4924 ending the sept month below the monthly pivot of 4957 but above the weekly pivot of 4912 and Week and Day Lema. . Upward move is possible with a close above 4960 - month Pivot.

The important Month/week parameters:

Week levels		Month levels
CLOSE	4943	CLOSE	4943
PIVOT	4912	PIVOT	4957
HI EMA	5122	HI EMA	5526
LOW EMA	4845	LOW EMA	5031
5 EMA	4976	3 EMA	5112
5 SMA	4999	3 SMA	5142

Important DAY parameters:

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	4943
PIVOT	4985	5EMA	4960
HI EMA	5013	10EMA	4973
LOW EMA	4909	13EMA	4980
5 SMA	4942	26EMA	5016
20DMA	5024	prev HI	5026
50 DMA	5133	prev LOW	4924
50Hr MA	4936
100Hr MA	4990

A Bearish Gartley is formed in Day TF and a Bullish shark pattern in Hour TF.

The Bullish Shark of the Hour TF would determine the target of the Day TF's Bearish Gartley.

The Expected C's of Bullish Shark :

 

Tgt for C	113% of AB		4891.62
Bullish	161.8% of AB		4830.13
Shark	127% of AB		4873.00
	224% of AB		4751.76
	88.6% of OX		4787.16
	113% of OX		4726.89

The expected C of Bearish Gartley:

38.20%	4928.57
50.00%	4896.00
61.80%	4863.43
78.60%	4817.06
88.60%	4789.46

	Trades Initiated
Current pattern	O_X	A	B
Developing Bullish Shark Hour TF	4759 -5006	4908	5034
Trade initiated	SL Hr close abv 4960(Month Pivot)
Sold at 4970 NF	Retr of AB for C (NS)
	88.60%	4922.00	Bkd PP on sept 30
	113.00%	4891.00	Trail SL to Day Lema
	127.00%	4873.00	Book PP
	161.80%	4830.00	Book PP
	224.00%	4751.00
when Hour closes Blw DLema - trail SL to Day Lema.

Important TA parameters for retracements
Day Lema, WeekPivot	113.00%	4891.00
Day Lema,	127.00%	4873.00
Week Lema	161.80%	4830.00
Prev Low	224.00%	4751.00

Weakness would persist initially on an Hour Close below Week pivot /Day lema at 4910 levels and if these levels are realised then trail SL or book Partial profits at 4870-90 levels.


Intraday Update 9.45 am:

Booked 75% profits at 4840NS.  Holding the remaining shorts with Hour close above 4845 - Week Lema

If shorts are to continue fullprofits are to be booked at 4760-70 levels and a Long to be taken with 4720 close as SL.

Intraday Update 11.00am:

The 11 am close is 4847 NS above the 4845 levels. So the remaining shorts are closed. Now for Intraday with week Lema 4945 as SL on hour closing basis a Long is initiated.

Buy at 4855NF with 4845 NS as stoploss in Hour close.



Book the Longs near the Day lema at 4900.

12 Noon Update:

The 12.00 Close is below 4945 NS. So the initiated longs are terminated at 4932 NF. A loss of 23 points.
Next buy near 4770-90 ranges at 224% retracement of Hour TF.

3.00PM update:

Iniitiated shorts again at 4950 NF as the High 4879 was not breached, weak global markets, the 14 rsi has not triggered a rise yet and the down targets are still not reached the max in Hour (224%)and Day TF (88.6% - 94.3%).

SL close above todays Day Lema at 4880.