With the Low of 5013 NS the lower channel of the Hour chart has been reached. Owing to OS conditions in Hour/Day charts an Intraday Bounce is likely from here. If it moves past yesterdays Close and eventually moves near the Pivot of 5090NS, then an Intraday Short can be intiated with SL Hour CLose above 5105 - 200Hr MA.
Positional Buy would be taken from 4990-5000NS with SL Day close below 4980.
NEXT UPDATE EOD
Yesterday longs were taken in anticipation of the wave B to complete by 5085-5120levels and start of wave C - But NS proved it the other way. Seems like more downsides are left.
A SWOT analysis:
STRENGTH : - 1.This can be attributed to the support points - 50DMA is at 5063 and 13WkSMA is at 5036 - possible support points for an Intraday Bounce.
2. The Positive Divergence in 9DRSI and Hr.Fmacd continues to Hold.
WEAKNESS:
a). NS Closed below DAY and WEEK pivots and Lema's.
b). All EMA's i.e, 5, 13, & 21 are well below their SMA's - technically indicating weakness.
c) NS closed below the 200Hr MA after 10 OCT 2010.
d) The +ve divergences exhibited in 35D has become invalid.
OPPURTUINITY:
TRADE for an intraday Bounce from 5036 - 5093 (Today's Pivot). Trading above Pivot would lead to Day Lema. Strength for Upward movement would regain with a close above DLEMA.
THREAT:
1. If Longs are not traded with a Strict SL then all the gains would be in DANGER.
2. The week TF has turned Down with a close below the PIVOT and LEMA.
| Week levels | Developing | ||
| CLOSE | 5169 | ||
| PIVOT | 5209 | PIVOT | 5117 |
| HI EMA | 5277 | HI EMA | 5261 |
| LOW EMA | 5073 | LOW EMA | 5066 |
| 5 EMA | 5179 | 5 EMA | 5142 |
| 13 Wk MA | 5036 | 13 Wk MA | 5053 |
| PrevHigh | 5317 | ||
| Prev Low | 5142 |
| CHECK LIST-DAY | |||
| CLOSE | 5069 | ||
| PIVOT | 5093 | 10EMA | 5183 |
| HI EMA | 5224 | 13EMA | 5180 |
| LOW EMA | 5137 | 26EMA | 5152 |
| 5EMA | 5157 | prev HI | 5159 |
| 5 SMA | 5179 | prev LOW | 5053 |
| 100 DMA | 5217 | 20 DMA | 5179 |
| 50DMA | 5063 | ||
| 20 Hr MA | 5158 | 200 HrMA | 5104 |
| Trade Table | ||
| Current pattern | X-A | B(current) |
| Developing Bullish Pattern in DAY TF | 4728 -5400 | 5140.8 |
| Trade initiated | ||
| NIL | Projections for B | |
| 38.20% | 5143.00 | |
| 44.70% | 5099.00 | |
| 50.00% | 5064.00 | |
| 61.80% | 4984.00 |
TRADE for an intraday Bounce if present from 5036 - 5093.
Buy at 4985-4990 levels as the 61.8% retr of the Bullish Pattern comes to 4982. refer EOD ANALYSIS NOV 15
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