EW with HARMONICS

Analysis for Nov 25:

Week levels		Developing
CLOSE	4906
PIVOT	4991	PIVOT	4756
HI EMA	5261	HI EMA	5132
LOW EMA	4995	LOW EMA	4876
5 EMA	5088	5 EMA	4978
5 SMA	5154
PrevHigh	5229
Prev Low	4838

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	4756
PIVOT	4722	10EMA	4902
HI EMA	4852	13EMA	4941
LOW EMA	4738	26EMA	5015
5EMA	4805	prev HI	4771
5 SMA	4892	prev LOW	4639
50DMA	5035	20 DMA	5093
20 Hr MA	4737	50 Hr MA	4852

TRADE TABLE :



	Trade Table
Current pattern	O-X	A	B(current)
Bearish Shark pattern	5740 - 4720	5400	4639
Trade initiated	SL close below DayPivot 4722NS
Bought at 4720 NF	Projections for C		If 4639 breaks then proj for B
	23.60%	4818.00	127%% of XA	4536.00
	38.20%	4929.00	141.40%	4438.00
	44.70%	4979.00	161.80%	4299.00

EW with HARMONICS:

Bearish Shark pattern:

OX - 5740 - 4720

A = 5400 = 61.8%retr of OX
B (current) = 5642 - 113% retr of OX
Proj for C:
23.6% of AB = 4818
38.2% - 4929
44.7% - 4979

Depicted the above mentioned weekly harmonic count in day Chart below:

As per EW theory, the count is rearranged as given below:

The Labellings are done as below :



If a 5wave pattern is considered:

wave1 = 5400 -5201
wave 2 = 5201 -5317- 61.8% of wave 1
wave 3 = 5317 - 4640
Proj for wave 4 -
23.6% of wave 3 = 4799
38.2% of wave 3 - 4898
44.7% of wave 3- 4942

The markings WXY is with the assumption that the correction is taking the form of a Double  zig -zag,

Reference from http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets.htm

Occasionally zigzags will occur twice, or at most, three times in succession, particularly when the first zigzag falls short of a normal target. In these cases, each zigzag is separated by an intervening "three" (labeled X), producing what is called a double zigzag (see Figure 13) or triple zigzag. The zigzags are labeled W and Y (and Z, if a triple).



Sub wave markings in Hour Chart:



 Combining EW with harmonics:

  

Bearish Shark pattern:                               EW Count if 5 wave pattern is considered:

OX - 5740 - 4720                                    Wave 1 - 5400 -5201

A = 5400 = 61.8%retr of OX                   Wave 2 - 5201 -5317 - 61.8% of wave 1
B (current) = 5642 - 113% retr of OX       Wave 3 - 5317 - 4640
Proj for C:                                                 Proj for wave 4:
23.6% of AB = 4818                                 23.6% - 4799
38.2% - 4929                                             38.2% of wave 3 - 4898
44.7% - 4979                                             44.7% of wave 3 -4942

The projection for C is based on the wave AB i.e from 5400 - 4639. As per EW count if the 4th wave is in progress, then a bearish pattern is likely to be formed in Hour charts.

To summarise, as per EW, if the 5 wave is in the making then the 4th wave might limit upto 4900-4950 for a final 5th wave down. But as the 3rd wave is an extended one the 5th wave might not get extended and close near 4600 levels.

If the 5th wave does not fall below 4600, then the current Bearish Shark pattern (week and DAY TF)would be a valid pattern and then the C of the Bearish Pattern is likely to give targets upto 5313/5498

If the 5th wave breaks below 4600 then the fall could be as deeper upto 4530/4430 levels and the harmonic count must be re arranged.