BYE BYE!!! 2011!!!

The much expected Santa Rally could not go beyond 4800 and has significantly dropped to close at 4646 for the DEC 2011 expiry.

Week Developing levels		Current Month Levels
CLOSE		CLOSE
PIVOT	4696	PIVOT	4759
HI EMA	4899	HI EMA	5321
LOW EMA	4673	LOW EMA	4732
5 EMA	4752	5 EMA	4966
5 SMA	4786	3 EMA	4836
PrevHigh	4801	High	5099
Prev Low	4640	LOW	4531

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	4646
PIVOT	4663	10EMA	4716
HI EMA	4744	13EMA	4729
LOW EMA	4671	26EMA	4793
5EMA	4698	prev HI	4787
5 SMA	4719	prev LOW	4556
20 DMA	4790	100 Hr MA	4716
20 Hr MA	4712	50 Hr MA	4707

If Today's close is above the week Lema /week Pivot 4670-95 then a ST term upside is a  possibility- with Hour indicators in Over Sold mode.

If today's close is at the Month Lema 4730 - then quite a rally is possible upto 4950 ++ .


Bearish Shark Pattern:

 

From the Low of 4531 to 4800  - 61.8% retracement comes to 4633 - which is almost achieved. This gives a short term possibility of a Bearish Gartley Pattern in Hour Charts:

An interesting MA convergence is present in the Hour Charts giving rise to bothg fast fall and fast rise possibilities.

The cluster of supports at 4639, channel support along with the 61.8% retr, the OS Hourly indicators and the fast rise possibility  indicate a probable short term upside - provided atleast the WEEK LEMA is protected at close.

The fast fall possibility along with weakness in Higher TF points out to more downsides.

Todays aggressive trade:

Buy near 4650 with SL close below 4620.
Sell below 4730 with SL close above 4740.