Holding shorts positionally as the SL was not hit.
Intraday update 1.00 PM:
| 23/01/2012 11:00 | 5,053.75 | 5,055.40 | 5,044.30 | 5,051.20 |
| 23/01/2012 12:00 | 5,051.20 | 5,052.45 | 5,032.25 | 5,036.90 |
| 23/01/2012 13:00 | 5,036.90 | 5,047.10 | 5,029.60 | 5,037.80 |
the low of 5029 exactly tests the lowerline of the rising wedge. Breakdown of the low would be breakdown of rising wedge.
Intraday Update 11.00 Am:
Hour chart with Divergences:
Aggressively shorted at 5050NS with SL Hour close above 5065.
ANALYSIS FOR JAN 23:
Nifty has easily moved past the Day, week and minthly resistance and is trading firmly above all 5 EMA's (monthly/weekly/and Daily) and ablve the week and Day Hema's.
As of now intraday weakness would set in only with a close below the Pivot - 5039 and subsequently the Day Hema of 4995.
| Week levels | |
| CLOSE | 5049 |
| PIVOT | 4980 |
| HI EMA | 4939 |
| LOW EMA | 4714 |
| 5 EMA | 4874 |
| 10 EMA | 4876 |
| PrevHigh | 5064 |
| Prev Low | 4827 |
| CHECK LIST-DAY | |||
| CLOSE | 5049 | ||
| PIVOT | 5039 | 10EMA | 4918 |
| HI EMA | 4995 | 13EMA | 4893 |
| LOW EMA | 4941 | 26EMA | 4849 |
| 5EMA | 4980 | prev HI | 5064 |
| 5 SMA | 4973 | prev LOW | 5004 |
| 20 Hr MA | 4843 | 100 DMA | 4938 |
| 50 Hr MA | 4928 | 200 DMA | 5229 |
The Bearish Bat pattern has given its complete target of 5064 - 224% retr of BC.
The Bearish Shark pattern of the Day TF has reached 94.3% retr @ 5064.
5068 - is the 61.8% retr - GOLDEN RATIO for the leg from 5400 -4531.
BEARISH SHARK PATTERN:
OX - 5400 - 4639
A - 5099 - approx 61.8% retr of OXB - 4531 - >113% and < 127% retrof XA
Proj for C:
88.6% of AB- 5034
94.43% - 5064 - achieved
113% - 5172
5172 is the initial taget for the Bearish shark pattern Day TF. Holding above the Day Hema this target is achieveable.
As the previous LONG entry which should have been taken at Day close above 4970 - Month 5EMA was missed - waiting for an oppurtunity to go LONG near the Day HEMA or DAY PIVOT.
| Trade Table | |||
| Current pattern | O-X | A | B |
| Bearish Shark pattern | 5400 - 4639 | 5099 | 4531 |
| Trade initiated | SL Day close below 4990NS | ||
| Buy above 5000-5030 NS | Projections for C | ||
| 88.60% | 5034.00 | ||
| 94.43% | 5067.00 | ||
| 113.00% | 5173.00 | ||
| 127.00% | 5252.00 |
AGGRESSIVE SHORTS CAN BE TAKEN AT 5060NS WITH SL HOUR CLOSE ABOVE 5070NS AND CAN CONVERT TO POSITIONAL IF DAY CLOSES BELOW ITS DAY HEMA - ELSE COULD BOOK PROFITS INTRADAY AT DAY HEMA.
| Retracements | ||
| 5.57% | 5038.43 | |
| 4588 -5065 | 9.02% | 5021.97 |
| 14.60% | 4995.36 |
6 comments:
@Satheesh,
I was eyeing your Bearish Shark from last week, from one of your previous posts. Brilliant and prescient as usual. Now one of my calculations from a totally different perspective (not EW), is giving a target of 5170 (and 5202) too. So, perhaps 5170-72 is really going to be a formidable resistance even for these adrenalin-pumped bulls. :)
One request, can you please also give the probable targets AFTER the completion of the patterns? That would be very helpful to calculate the risk-reward ratio.
ANY SIGNIFTY OF -VE DIVERGENCE IN 14HOUR RSI
Fire,
Thanks for your encouragement as usual :)
I shall try to post a chart with details how the targets are achieved. The last leg of the Bearish Pattern would form the first leg of the Bullish pattern to give lower targets and vice-versa.
As of Now I combine it with TA and important ratios like 38.2%,50% and 61.8% and 88.6% to book out ir reenter.
When combined with EW it would give us good insight whether it would be an impulsive wave or a corrective wave to bookout and reenter - as I had mailed you earlier.
But still a long way to go for EW :)
Joe,
14RSI when combined with Harmonic patterns helps me pickout good reversal points especially with divergence. If the rising wedge is broken down then the -ve divergence would have its role for sure.
5065 has significance in Hour day and week levels too.
224% retr from 4801 - 4588
94.3% retr from 5099 - 4531
61.8% retr from 5400 -5431.
When such combination of various TF's points out to one level of NS then a trade from that level would give decent returns.
Fire,
The chart below would give you an idea about the development of targets in Harmonics.
Click Here
I shall post the recent chart within a day or two.
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