ANALYSIS FOR DEC 13

Intraday Update 10.30 AM:

Nifty in a falling wedge pattern in Hour charts.

breakout above 4810 - Day's Pivot. Weakness below Day's Pivot.

Analysisfor Dec 13:

Nifty from a high at 4910 resisted at  Day Lema/20 DMA fell around 145 points to close at 4765 retracing 70.7% of the upmove from 4639 -5099.

Bearish Bat Pattern:

Bearish Bat Pattern:XA - 5400 - 4640
B (current) -5099
Proj for C:
61.8% - 4814.7
70.7% - 4774 - achieved.
88.6% - 4691
As per the bearish Bat pattern the low of 4639 must not be breached. If it is breached then the option of a Bearish Shark Pattern with 113% projection would be 4579.

BEARISH BAT depicted in Hour Charts:

Adding an element of pattern into this set up - a Head and shoulders is formed in Day Charts.

The neck line support is at 4600-4630.  If the neck line support is gained and Nifty Bounces back from these levels, then the Probability of the Bearish Bat/Bearish Shark completion in DAY TF is very much likely with targets upto 5200-5300.

In case the Head and Shoulder breaks down then there will be much lower targets upto 4200 - which will alter the WEEKLY BEARISH SHARK PATTERN - shown in the first chart. In such a case the Bearish shark of the DAY TF would develop into an ABCD pattern. - But This possibility has quite a long way to go.

Adding an element of EW:

Wave a = 5099 - 4843 - 256 points
Wave b = 4843-4918 - 75 points
Wave c = min wave a = 4918 - 256=4662 - This level very well coincides with the 88.6% projection at 4690.

CONCLUSION:
So putting all together - If Nifty gains support in the region of 4640 - 4700, then it would be a short term Bottom which will help in SANTA RALLY to a minimum of upto 5200-5300.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	4765
PIVOT	4810	10EMA	4903
HI EMA	4967	13EMA	4911
LOW EMA	4855	26EMA	4951
5EMA	4882	prev HI	4910
5 SMA	4984	prev LOW	4756
20 DMA	4900	50 DMA	5008
20 Hr MA	4879	100 Hr MA	4863

	Trade Table
Current pattern	X-A	B
Bearish Bat pattern	5400 - 4639	5099
Trade initiated	SL Day close above 4810 -Day Pivot
Shorted at 4805 NF	Projections for C
	61.80%	4814.00	Booked PP
	70.70%	4774.00
	88.60%	4691.00	BOOK Profits
Booked at 4814NF and reshorted at 4803NF