HAS SANTA RALLY STARTED??!!!

Below is the December month Data from the year 2002!!!

-	Nifty	Nifty	Nifty	Nifty	Diff betw High	diff betw Low
DATE	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	and close	and Close
31.12.02	1,050.15	1,103.95	1,034.10	1,093.05	10.90	58.95
31.12.03	1,615.85	1,914.40	1,615.70	1,879.75	34.65	264.05
31.12.04	1,960.75	2,088.45	1,944.50	2,080.50	7.95	136.00
30.12.05	2,651.60	2,857.00	2,641.95	2,836.55	20.45	194.60
29.12.06	3,955.70	4,036.20	3,657.65	3,966.40	69.80	308.75
31-Dec-07	5,765.45	6,185.40	5,676.70	6,138.60	46.80	461.90
31-Dec-08	2,755.15	3,110.45	2,570.70	2,959.15	151.30	388.45
31-Dec-09	5,059.30	5,221.85	4,943.95	5,201.05	20.80	257.10
31-Dec-10	5,871.00	6,147.30	5,721.15	6,134.50	12.80	413.35

Almost every year the Close has been pretty close to the Highs!!!

Will Today's low be the bottom - an Analysis!!!

BEARISH BAT PATTERN:

As per the pattern,

XA - 5400 - 4640
B   -5099 - 61.8% retr of XA
C (current) - 4674 - 88.6% retr of AB
Projections for D:
38.2% - 4836
61.8% - 4936
88.6% - 5050.55
113% - 5154
127% - 5213

According to the pattern the ratios expected are,

B  /   C   /    D	B  /   C   /    D
0.500/0.886/1.618	0.618/0.886/1.270
0.500/0.886/2.000	0.618/0.886/1.414
0.500/0.886/2.240	0.618/0.886/1.618
0.500/0.886/2.618

Considering the above table holding the current value of C at 4672 the targets expected are,
  

127.00%	5213.75
141.40%	5274.95
161.80%	5361.65
200.00%	5524.00
224.00%	5626.00

88.6% ratio is achieved - okay - But has it got any major support strong enough for Nifty to Bounce back ??

WEEKLY chart shows a Major trendline support from the previous Lows.

A trendline from the Lows of 2252 and 2555 to today's Low of 4674  provides a good base for a major support.

 The Weekly FMACD has given a Positive Divergence.

 The Lead indicator 5D in weekly charts has triggered a buy with Positive Divergence.

Now to DAY charts:

Positive Divergence is seen in Day macd charts:

A FALLING WEDGE in Day charts:

ALL the above Charts indicate a Short term bottom.


FACTORS WHICH COULD PREVENT A RALLY AND POSSIBILITIES OF NIFTY MAKING NEW LOWS:
    Technical Factors:
1. The fast fall setup formed in Day charts on 9th DEC with the 10EMA, 13EMA and 26EMA
2. Nifty is trading well below the important TA parameters of  Day 5EMA, Week Lema and Month Lema.
 
    Events/news likely to affect:
1. Uncertainity in GLOBAL markets.
2. RBI credit policy

Only by closing above the WEEK Lema of 4783  and Day 5EMA of 4798- on DEC 16 - further upward momentum can be gained. Failure to do so would drag Nifty further down and the Break of the Head and Shoulder pattern formed in Day charts (Click Here) with neckline breakdown at 4600-4620,  would drag nifty to very deep LOWS!!!