ANALYSIS FOR 2 JAN 2012

A 50%  Buy is initiated at 4610NF with Positional SL at 4530 NS. More Longs can be added at 88.6% retr at 4560-65 NS levels.

Bearish bat PATTERN has formed in Nifty Hour Charts. Similar pattern has formed in Bank Nifty Charts also.

Bearish Bat Pattern:XA - 5099 - 4531
B - 4800 - approx - 50% retr of XA
C (current) - 4588 - approx 78.6%retr of AB
Proj for D:
23.6 % - 4638
38.2% -  4669
50%% - 4694

The PRZ - Potential reversal zone is at 4530 - Prev Low.

Bullish Possibilities:
i.Todays developing Day Lema is 4629. A close above this is likely to provide a pause for the downtrend. ii.Subsequently a close above the Dema at 4640-50 levels would give momentum to the upmove.
iii.The Highly OS conditions of the Hour/Day charts supported by the Hour/Day/weekly charts +ve divergence suggests a possible upmove from the current lows.
iv. Bullish crossover of 50Hr MA over 100 Hr MA.

Down trend possibliites:
A possible fast fall in Hour charts with Hour 5ema, 10ema and 12 ema - alligned at 4618, 4629,&4634. NS must trade well above these levels for an upmove.
As the current trend is down and this trade is a contra-trade from the trend - Strict SL is essential. If NS Closes below the Day Lema (currently at 4629), the position can be terminated from aggresssive point of view but to be continued positionally.