ANALYSIS FOR AUG 31

INTRADAY UPDATE 2.00 PM:
5240NS achieved. Aggressive Longs are taken at 5242NS (5275NF) with Stoploss 5220NS EOD - Break of Month 5EMA -

Stoploss for existing Shorts trailed to EOD close above 5310NS - above Current Day LEMA and Day 5EMA.

INTRADAY UPDATE 10.45 am:

BULLISHLY ALLIGNED MOVING AVERAGES
Possibility of Fast Rise between 50 and 100 Ma averages and 20 and 200 MA's.
An Hourly Close below the 200 Hr MA - currently 5277 - signals weakness.


ANALYSIS FOR AUG31:

NIFTY at a Critical - make or Break juncture. Today being the Month end and week end  - also a weekend filled with curiosity U.S - QE - today's level of closing becomes very important.

MONTH CHART:

Current Month has attempted a Breakout but could not sustain.
A close above the Month HEMA of 5380- channel top would give a breakout next month with momentum. The Lead Indicator has moved up trigerring a Buy.

WEEK CHART:

The week indicator has turned down but has not signalled a Sell - but exhibits -ve divergence.

Nifty testing the Top of the Contracting Triangle - If breaks below 5230,  then it would again fall back into the triangle - signalling more weakness - which might drag nifty near 5000 levels.
 If supported, upmove would resume and first resistance at 5430-50 and above 5450-60 it would be a breakout - targetting 5600++

DAY CHART:

The lead indicator is at the Over Bought region and has turned up but not signalled a buy. The S.Macd indicator exhibits -ve divergence.

HARMONIC CHART:

Based on the charts above both Bullish and Bearish scenarios exists. If Nifty Finds supports at 5230-40 levels then the Bullish 5-0 Pattern would continue for Much Higher targets at 5480 -5600++

Bullish 5-0 pattern:
XA - 4804 - 5020
B - 4770 - 113% retr of XA
C - 5349 - approx 224% retr of AB
D - 5032 - 50% retr of BC
E: 5449 - approx -127% - 5434 DONE
Further proj for E:
141.4% - 5480
161.8% - 5545
As per this pattern the max retr. That could be achieved is 200% - i.e - 5666

If the Supports break at 5240 - then the Bullish Shark Pattern would continue for much lower targets near 5000 NS.

Holding the High of 5449 -
Bullish Shark Pattern:OX - 4770 - 5349
A - 5032 - 50% of OX
B - 5449- 113% of XA - DONE
Holding B Proj for C:
38.2% - 5289
50% - 5240
61.8% - 5191
88.6% - 5079
113% -  4977

SYNOPSIS:

NIFTY'S MAKE OR BREAK LEVEL - 5240-5230.
A CLOSE BELOW 5380 BUT ABOVE 5240 WOULD KEEP NIFTY MONTH TF UPWARD AS IT WOULD CLOSE ABOVE THE MONTH 5EMA.

PARTBOOK EXISTING SHORTS AT 5240NS LEVELS AND INITIATE AGGRESSIVE LONGS AT 5230-40 LEVELS WITH STRICT STOPLOSS OF 5220 NS ON HOURLY CLOSING BASIS.

STOPLOSS FOR EXISTING SHORTS REMAIN AT 5320N ON EOD BASIS.

Developing Week Levels		Developing Month Levels
CLOSE		CLOSE
PIVOT	5323	PIVOT	5309
HI EMA	5376	HI EMA	5379
LOW EMA	5261	LOW EMA	5010
5 EMA	5314	5 EMA	5233
5 SMA	5321	5 SMA	5199
10 EMA	5267
PrevHigh	5399	High	5449
Prev Low	5255	LOW	5165

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5315	5 SMA	5335
PIVOT	5304	5EMA	5331
HI EMA	5365	10EMA	5341
LOW EMA	5302	13EMA	5338
prev HI	5343	50 Hr MA	5360
prev LOW	5255	100 Hr MA	5357
20 DMA	5333	200 Hr MA	5276
50 DMA	5256
100 DMA	5160