A Doji is formed in Day charts depicting indesiciveness - whether it would cross 5064 and move upto 5100-5130 - 100 DMA or fall from here to reach 4900 initially.
The above chart shows a symmetrical triangle developed in 5min NF charts with a fast rise set up which gives a possibility of breakout in either sides. The fast rise favours an upside breakout.
All the Hour indicators are overbought with -ve divergences in 14 RSI & Hr fmacd. Trendline resistances at 5055-60 NS. A breakout of 5064 with good volumes is very much essential for further upmove. Initially Trading below the Pivot and subsequently below 5010 corresponding to 50 DMA would easily drag NS to 4980 DHema and further down to- 4930-4900 levels near Day Lema.
This would confirm the BEARISH BAT PATTERN formed in DAY charts.
The above chart depicted in Hour charts:
Bearish Bat Pattern:
XA - 5400 - 4640
B(current) - 5064
Proj for C : .
23.6% - 4963.1738.2% - 4901
44.7% - 4873
50% - 4851
If the Current B @ 5063 is breached and moved above 5110, then it would be a Gartley pattern and the Reciprocal ABCD would be invalidated
RECIPROCAL ABCD pattern
A - 5011B - 5400
C - 4640 - greater than 161.8% & less than 224%
D = 5011 - 50% retr of BC
The reciprocal ABCD pattern stands valid till the 61.8% projection is not breached.
The target achieved for the reciprocal ABCD would be the C of the Bearish Bat pattern of Day TF
Now coming to EW count:
In Day charts, If a.B is a 3 wave correction (a,b,c) then it is likely to end at 5064 -5130and b.B starts. If it is going to be a 5 impulsive wave( i,ii,iii,iv,v) then more upsides.
The rising wedge is formed in Day charts would form as a channel if NS finds support at 4950-30 - corresponding to 26 EMA and 13 EMA. This is likely to form as wave iv , if it is going to be a 5 wave impulse.
Below 4865 - wave i marking - the possibility of 5 waves is negated as wave iv cannot overlap wave i and it is confirmed that b.B is in progress. This set up gives mor credit to the Bearish BAT Pattern.
Sub waves of a.B:
wave i = 4639 -4863 = 224 pointswave ii = 4863 - 4755 - 50% retr of wave i
wave iii = 4755 - 5011 = 256 points > wave i
wave iv = 5011- 4916
wave v(current) = 4916 - 5063 = 147 - 61.8% of wave i
next possibilty wave v = wave i = 4910+224 = 5134=100DMA
| CHECK LIST-DAY | |||
| CLOSE | 5039 | ||
| PIVOT | 5032 | 10EMA | 4924 |
| HI EMA | 4989 | 13EMA | 4929 |
| LOW EMA | 4898 | 26EMA | 4969 |
| 5EMA | 4959 | prev HI | 5055 |
| 5 SMA | 4933 | prev LOW | 5003 |
| 50DMA | 5017 | 100DMA | 5130 |
| 200Hr MA | 5044 |
| Trade Table | |||
| Current pattern | A-B | C | D(current) |
| Reciprocal ABCD Pattern DAY TF | 5011 - 5400 | 4640 | 5063 |
| Trade initiated | SL 5065 NS | ||
| Short @ 5040NF | TGT Projected | Above 5063 | |
| 23.60% | 4962.00 | 61.8% - 5109 | |
| 38.20% | 4901.00 | ||
| 44.70% | 4873.00 | ||
| 50.00% | 4851.00 | ||
| A breach of 61.8% @ 5109 would invalidate the pattern | |||
| Trade Table | ||||
| Current pattern | X-A | B(current) | ||
| Bearish Bat pattern | 5400 - 4639 | 5064 | ||
| Trade initiated | ||||
| Shorted at 5040 NF | Projections for C if B Holds | Proj for B if 5064 is breached | ||
| 23.60% | 4962.00 | 61.8% of XA | 5109.00 | |
| 38.20% | 4901.00 | 70.70% | 5177.00 | |
| 44.70% | 4873.00 | 78.60% | 5237.00 | |
| 50.00% | 4851.00 |
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