Analysis for DEC 8

Intraday update 1.30 Pm;
Booked aggressive longs at 5002NF - as resisted near 4985.


Intraday update 11.15 am:
Booked part profit at 4955 NS i.e 4970 NF.  as the  Day 10 EMa is at 4950 and the Day Lema @ 4942.

SL for rest of the shorts trailed to a Day CLose above Day 5EMA - 4990 NS
Aggressive longs at 4950NS /4970 NF with SL Hr close below 5040NS DAY LEMA.


Intraday update 10.30 AM:

NS exactly at channel support at today's low of 4982. IF Hr closed below 4980 then more weakness - else may be a bounce can be expected. Also it is equal to 23.6% retracement of the rise from 4639 - 5099 and coinciding with the day 5EMA.

ANALYSIS for DEC 8th:

First of all I have to confess that the trades taken during the month of Nov 2011 - did not perform well as I had mixed various Hour Tf along with Day TF. Henceforth I shall term the Hour trades/5min TF as aggressive and Day TF and week TF as positional. Both the trades would be presented in different tables for convenience.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5063
PIVOT	5065	10EMA	4950
HI EMA	5026	13EMA	4948
LOW EMA	4942	26EMA	4976
5EMA	4994	prev HI	5099
5 SMA	4984	prev LOW	5032
50DMA	5015	100DMA	5123
200Hr MA	5044

NS got resisted at 5099 just few points below the week Hema @ 5109 , month 5EMA @ 5126 & 100 DMA - 5130. It is also close to the 61.8% - ratio.

This still keeps the Bearish ABCD Pattern intact.



 Two Alternatives can be arrived at present:

The 5D indicator in the above DAY chart is Highy over Bought but yet to reverse.   As per the Day charts there are 2 Alternatives. 

Alternate 1:

The a.B is completed in a 3 wave move( 5wave move in Hour Charts)  and the b.B has started. This would be confirmed if the Day close is below the DayHEMA @ 5026 / below 50 DMA @ 5015. This would be a sign of first weakness.

A day close below the 5EMA @ 5995 would confirm the downmove.

This would give credentials to the Bearish Bat Pattern

Alternate 2:

The 3 waves of a.B are completed at 5099 and iv wave has started.

The iv wave would initially make a 23.6% retr of the 3rd wave which comes to 4990 - 5EMA.

If this is supported, then a swift vth wave upmove would unfold to reach the 100 DMA. 

Yesterday as NS got resisted at trendline and fallen back to close at 5062, the possible Intraday supports are as follows:

1. As per the Hr -35D chart posted above the supports are in the range of 4990-5000 - Corresponding to Day 5EMA.

2. As per the above charts, 5020-30 are the supports corresponding to 50 DMA and Day HEMA respectively.

So intraday supports are likely at 4990-5000-5020-5030.

The shorts taken previously at 5040NF is still held as the positional SL of 5110 NS is not breached as per the Bearish Reciprocal pattern.

Positional	Trade Table
Current pattern	A-B	C	D(current)
Reciprocal ABCD Pattern DAY TF	5011 - 5400	4640	5099
Trade initiated	SL 5110 NS
Short @ 5040NF	TGT Projected
	23.60%	4990.00	Book PP
	38.20%	4923.00
	44.70%	4893.00
	50.00%	4869.00

The below trade is taken based on the -ve divergences in Hour TF:

Aggressive	Trade Table	Reason for trade
buy @ 4995-5020	SL - Hr close below 4990	Day 5EMA/15DMA
Sell @ 5100	SL Hour close above 5110	Prev day High 5099