ANALYSIS FOR DEC 9

Intraday Update 12.30 PM:
The 5min NF chart - NF moving within Channel. Upsides only on channel breakout!!

Intraday update 10.00 AM:
Initiated shorts at 4890NS/4897 NS with SL day close above 4930 - Day Lema.

Intraday Update 9.30 AM :

50% RETR ACHIVES IN BEARISH bAT PATTERN WITH TODAYS LOW OF 4843. This corresponds to weekLema and Month Lema. Further weakness with a close below these levels.
So, terminated Shorts at these levels at 4850NS / 4865NF. With a Probable close below 4830 the shorts will be reinitiated with Week Lema @ 4836 as SL.

If Intraday bounce is present then fresh Shorts would be taken at 4900 -4930 ranges with Day Lema as SL.

ANALYSIS FOR DEC 9:
Nifty fell from above Day HEMA to Day Lema - as indicated by the -ve divergences in Hour charts. It has closed below the Day Hema and Day 5EMA indicating weakness. The Day Lema was breached but has managed to close just above it. Today's move would decide if it is going to support or resist!!



The Bearish Bat pattern is confirmed by the downmove and 38.2% retracement is achieved with the low of 4921.

The same depicted in Hr chart. Also to be noted is that the Low is exactly supported at the lower trendline of the channel. This also corresponds to the 38.2% retr of AB.

 

If the low of 4920 breaks then the next important supports are week Lema @ 4836 and Month Low ema @ 4833 - which almost corresponds with the 61.8% retracement.

With the huge downmove of today it is confirmed that a.B is over and b.B is started.

Considering the above Chart, with -ve global clues, If there is gap down then the existing gap might not be filled completely, then it becomes an Island Reversal Pattern which is very Bearish.

In that case would it be that B(61.8% of A @ 5099) is over and C has started???- wait & watch will tell us the answer!!

Looking at week's chart it indicates a probability!!!

Currently NS is below all week and month parameters except week LEMA & month LEMA. A close below this would be the indication of total weakness.
  

Week levels		Developing levels
CLOSE	5050	CLOSE
PIVOT	4956	PIVOT	4996
HI EMA	5109	HI EMA	5106
LOW EMA	4836	LOW EMA	4864
5 EMA	4992	5 EMA	4984
5 SMA	5024	5SMA	4961
10 WK avg	5049	High	5099
PrevHigh	5063
Prev Low	4755

	Trade Table
Current pattern	X-A	B
Bearish Bat pattern	5400 - 4639	5099
Trade initiated	SL Day close above 4936 Day Lema
Shorted at 5040 NF	Projections for C if B Holds
	23.60%	4990.00
	38.20%	4923.00
	44.70%	4893.00
	50.00%	4869.00
Booked PP @ 4950 NS/4970NF

Aggressive	Trade Table	Reason for trade
Sell below 4930	SL - Hr close above 4940	Day Lema