This blog is my trading diary. It is an attempt to organise my analysis and thoughts. I follow the charting methods given in JUST NIFTY blog by Ilango sir and so the charts would have striking resemblance to his charts. I am indebted to Ilango sir for having made this blog possible for me.

January 30, 2012

ANALYSIS FOR JAN 30

INTRADAY UPDATE 2.20PM:

SL TRAILED TO DAY CLOSE ABOVE 5125 DAY 5 EMA as upward momentum could continue only if Day closes above the Day 5EMA.

INTRADAY UPDATE 12.15PM:

The 12.00 Noon closing is below the DHEMA of 5135. So trailing the SL to Close above 5140 NS.


ANALYSIS FOR JAN 30
Nifty had ended the week near the long term resistance Line and also the day ended with a Hanging man pattern. This is a Bearish Reversal pattern which is to be confirmed by following candle.



As Nifty has closed just below the 200 DMA and testing the long term trendline resistance, it has given the possibility of a Bearish butterfly in weekly charts. Further strength for upmove would be possible with a close above 200 DMA 5220 - which would result in continuation of the Huge Bearish shark formed from 5740 levels.
.
 PROBABLE DEVELOPMENT OF BEARISH BUTTERFLY IN WEEKLY CHARTS:



Below 5217 - Possibility of a Bearish Butterfly developing.XA - 5400 - 4531
B - 5217 - 78.6% retr of XA
Projected C:
23.6% - 5055
38.2% - 4955
ABOVE 5220 Bearish shark (click Here)  would continue for Higher targets upto 5500 ++



Week levels
CLOSE5205
PIVOT5148
HI EMA5031
LOW EMA4816
5 EMA4984
10 EMA4936
PrevHigh5217
Prev Low5021
40 Wk MA5170



CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE5205
PIVOT51955 SMA5117
HI EMA51375EMA5123
LOW EMA508110EMA5044
prev HI521713EMA5008
prev LOW516226EMA4926
100 DMA495020 Hr MA5104
200 DMA521450 Hr MA5034


THE SL FOR THE AGGRESSIVE SHORTS TAKEN ON FRIDAY REMAINS THE SAME AS CLOSE ABOVE 5220 NS

4 comments:

Parimal said...

Dear Satheesh
as usual, very clear and nice presentation. i am slightly skeptical about much downside since FII is pumping in huge money
all the best

satheesh said...

Parimal,

Only on a close below the week5EMA at 4980as per the week chart would reach more lows. This 4980-50 levels corresponds to the 38.2% retr from the current highs of 5217 and also it corresponds to the 100 DMA levels. From these levels good upsides are possible upto 5500++ levels. So that is why I have given only the initial retracement targets upto 38.2%. Breakdown below this I would check out for lower levels.

Till 4950 is broken decisively downside will be restricted.

Parimal said...

Dear Satheesh
thanks for kind explanation
regards

Kumar Technicals said...

Dear Satheesh!

As usual you are doing wonderful job, good wishes & keep continue.

Rgrds,

Kumar

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