ANALYSIS FOR DEC 12

Intraday Update 12.45 PM:

The aggressive Buy is terminated at 4803NF as the Channel resistance comes to play.
Expecting more downsides, the short is reinitiated at 4803NF.

Intraday Update 12.10 PM:

NS reached a Low of 4796, and so Booked the shorts at 4805NS 4814NF. - This corresponds to the 61.8% retr f the Bearinsh Bat Pattern.

Aggressive Buy at 4815NF SL Hourly close below present low of 4796 NS
the retracements to look for are:
23.6% - 4867
38.2% - 4911
44.7% - 4931

Analysis for Dec 12:
Nifty registered a low of 4841 - where it gathered support at the week Lema and Month Low EMA @ 4836. It has closed below the Day Pivot, Hema and Low EMA. It closed below the week Pivot but above week Lema.

Intraday strength above todays Pivot and subsequently a close above the Day Lema @ 4904 and 20 DMA@ 4920 will lead to more upsides.

There are a cluster of resistances at 4905 - 4940 ranges by way of Day Lema, 10EMA, 13EMA, 5 EMA and week 5EMA. Though the ST Hour indicators are Over Sold, there is yet no signs of bottoming out as no reversl has been triggerred and also there is no +ve divergences.

The Day TF is yet to reach OS conditions.

Bearish Bat Harmonic Pattern:
50% retr is achieved at the low of 4841.

Susequently owing to the 50% retr a Bullish pattern is formed in Hour Charts:



Development of Bullish Bat pattern in Hr. TFXA - 4639 - 5099
B - 4841 - 50% retr of XA
Proj for C:
38.2% - 4939 - corresponds to Day 5EMA
44.7% - 4956 - corresponds to week 5 EMA
50% - 4970 - corresponds to 26 EMA
61.8% -5000 - corresponds to Day Hema

EW perspective:

If the retracement is limited to 4940 - 38.2% projection of the fall, then it might be termed as ii. with more downsides possible. if it surpasses 4950 then there is more probability of the retr reaching 61.8% projection near 5000 levels. Then it could be termed as b.C then the c.C would start.





Week levels
CLOSE	4867
PIVOT	4936
HI EMA	5106
LOW EMA	4838
5 EMA	4950
5 SMA	4940
PrevHigh	5099
Prev Low	4842

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	4867
PIVOT	4876	10EMA	4934
HI EMA	4995	13EMA	4936
LOW EMA	4904	26EMA	4966
5EMA	4940	prev HI	4918
5 SMA	4984	prev LOW	4842
20 DMA	4920	50 DMA	5010
50 Hr MA	4953	20 Hr MA	4970

	Trade Table
Current pattern	X-A	B
Bearish Bat pattern	5400 - 4639	5099
Trade initiated	SL Day close above 4925 - 20 DMA
Shorted at 4895 NF	Projections for C
	38.20%	4923.00
	44.70%	4893.00
	50.00%	4869.00
	61.80%	4814.00
Booked at 4850 & shorted again at 4895NF

Current pattern	X-A	B(current)	C
Bullish Bat pattern Hour TF	4639 -5099	4841
Trade initiated
	Projections for C
	23.60%	4901.00
	38.20%	4939.00
	44.70%	4956.00
	50.00%	4970.00
	61.80%	5000.00
Buy above 4880/4904 Day Pivot/Lema
SL Hr close below 4870 - Day Pivot

The Aggressive trade is based on the Bullish pattern Hour TF.

Aggressive	Trade Table	Reason for trade
Buy above 4880	SL - Hr close below 4870	Day Pivot
Sell below 4930	SL - Hr close above 4940	Day 5EMA