ANALYSIS for DEC 5

Intraday update 2.45 PM:

After breaking the rising wedge NS has retraced back to the lower line. Trading below 5050-60 NS the rising wedge would be intact. 4985 - 75NS would be a channel support. Below 4985-75 would be weakness.

INTRADAY UPDATE 11.45 AM:
Aggressively shorted at 5040NF SL Hr close above 5050 NS

ANALYSIS forDEC 5:
NS moved pass all resistances on Friday DEC 2 and closed above 50DMA and just at 200 Hr MA.

The ABCD Reciprocal pattern is still valid as the 61.8% proj @ 5109 is not breached. - which is the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ).

The Shorts were closed on friday as NS closed above the 50DMA , week 5EMA &SMA and Day HEMa. So one could expect upto 61.8% retracement @ 5109 which also corresponds to week HEMA @ 5109 and Month 5SMA @ 5117.

The Hour indicators and Day Indicators are Highly Over Bought but has not yet triggerred a reversal though -ve divergences are present in Hr fmacd charts.
The week Indicator inspite of a rise of 400++ points has remained the same as the prev week in OS  and has not triggered a buy - though the +ve divergence formed last week still remains.

Taking into consideration the OB levels of Hour and Day TF and the -ve divergences in Hour TF - a correction is very much likely during the coming week.

The EW chart with sub waves are:

As per the subwaves of wave 4:



wave 4a = 4639 - 4863
wave 4b = 4863 - 4755 - approx 61.8%  of wave 4a
wave 4c = min wave 4a = 4979 - achieved
            = 1.38 *wave 4a = 5064 - achieved - Friday dec 2nd High
            = 1.618*wave 4a= 5117 - corresponds to week Hema and Month 5 SMA

So, the harmonic pattern, EW sub count, the OB conditions of Hour and Day might give an oppurtunity to short at 5100 - 5120-5130 levels based on week HEMA, Month 5 SMA and 100 DMA.

Shorts can be initiated at 5100 -5130 levels with Strict Sl of
 for  intraday - Hour Close above 5110 - week Hema & 61.8% proj.
 for Positional - Day close above 5136 - corresponding to 100 DMA and Month 5SMA @ 5117
A day close above 5140 would invalidate the shorts

If 5065 friday's high is not breached then weakness would set in intraday with a close below
 1) below 5046 - 200 Hr MA
 2) below 5020 - 50DMA
 3) below 5010 - Day Pivot

A day's close below 5026 - Month 3EMA would set in weakness and drag NS further down.

With such a condition when Hour close is below 50 DMA then shorts can be initiated at these levels with SL at Day close above 50 DMA.

Week levels		Month Levels
CLOSE	5050	CLOSE	4832
PIVOT	4956	PIVOT	4933
HI EMA	5109	HI EMA	5431
LOW EMA	4836	LOW EMA	4833
5 EMA	4992	5 EMA	5026
5 SMA	5024	5SMA	5117
10 WK avg	5049	3EMA	5026
PrevHigh	5063
Prev Low	4755

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5050
PIVOT	5010	10EMA	4899
HI EMA	4955	13EMA	4910
LOW EMA	4845	26EMA	4964
5EMA	4919	prev HI	5063
5 SMA	4895	prev LOW	4918
50DMA	5016	100DMA	5136
200Hr MA	5046

	Trade Table
Current pattern	A-B	C	D(current)
Reciprocal ABCD Pattern DAY TF	5011 - 5400	4640	5063
Trade initiated	SL 5120 NS
Short at 5100 NS (or) short at hr close below 5026	TGT Projected		Above 5063
	23.60%	4962.00	61.8% - 5109
	38.20%	4901.00
	44.70%	4873.00
	50.00%	4851.00
A breach of 61.8% @ 5109 would invalidate the pattern and the former
Bearish shark would take over again.

If 5010 pivot and 5020- 50 DMA holds then an Intraday Buy can be initiated with Close below 5010 as SL for an initial target of 5060moving above it could take to 5100-5135 - 100 DMA.

	Trade Table
Current pattern	O-X	A	B(current)
Bearish Shark pattern	5740 - 4720	5400	4639
Trade initiated
	Projections for C
	50.00%	5019.00
	61.80%	5109.00
	7070.00%	5177.00
	7860.00%	5237.00

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