This blog is my trading diary. It is an attempt to organise my analysis and thoughts. I follow the charting methods given in JUST NIFTY blog by Ilango sir and so the charts would have striking resemblance to his charts. I am indebted to Ilango sir for having made this blog possible for me.

July 16, 2011

HARMONIC PATTERNS in NIFTY

HARMONIC PATTERNS in NIFTY:

The harmonic patterns are basically identifying the movement of the Prices in a X,A,B,C,D geometric pattern combined with Fibonacci retracements.

The highlight of these patterns are the co-relation between the waves and the Fibonacci counting. Based on the retracements of wave XA to B, the patterns has been categorized as Gartley, Bat pattern, Butterfly Pattern and Crab Pattern. Another fact is that these patterns work under all Time Frames from minutes to week etc.,

Harmonic Patterns:

1. GARTLEY PATTERN










   

2.  THE BUTTERFLY PATTERN












3. The Crab Pattern




4.The Bat Pattern:

In NIFTY the harmonic patterns are found to develop alternatively. To Complete a Bullish pattern, Bearish pattern develops and so on and so forth!! From the low of  4785, three alternate patterns have been identified in a very broad view, and the Harmony in them is really amazing!!

If one goes into details there are patterns developed with patterns.

In the chart shown below a small bearish Gartley is developed shown in double lines inorder to complete the CD wave (6181 -5177) of the  Bullish Pattern






BULLISH BAT PATTERN:

WAVE XA = 4785 – 6338 = 1553.5 POINTS
                B = 5690 approx 38.2% retracement of XA = 5745
                       Main criteria – greater than or equal to 38.2% and less then 50%
                C =  6181 which is 76.4% retracment of AB = 6185
                D = 5177 which is greater than 161.8% retr of CD and also 76.4% retr of the
                       first wave XA
The TARGET for this pattern are the Fibonacci retracement numbers from 38.2% onwards. This pattern has given a High of 5944 which is exactly 76.4%  retracement of CD

In the Chart shown below, the CD of the Bullish pattern becomes the XA of the next pattern.



BEARISH BAT PATTERN:

Wave XA = 6181 – 5177 = 1004 pts
 B = 5608 (approx equal to 38.2% of XA =5560 and less than 50% retr 5679)
 C = 5348 (equal to 61.8% retracement of AB =5341)
 D =  5944 (equal to 224% retr of BC and 76.4% of retracement of XA.

The target for this starts from 38.2% retracement of the last wave CD this pattern has initially provided a target of 5693 50% retr of the wave CD, and as D =5944 was not surpassed, a target of 94.43% retr (of CD = 5329) was achieved.

In the next case the previous CD has become the XA for the next bullish Pattern.


BULLISH BUTTERFLY/CRAB PATTERN:

Wave XA = 5348 – 5944 = 596 pts
B = 5693 (approx equal to 50% retr of XA = 5646)
C = 5912 approx equal to 88.6% of AB = 5915
D = 5329 approx equal to 261.8% of BC and approx equal to 94.3% retr of XA = 5381.2

The upmove got resisted at 38.2% retr of CD at 5605, and plummeted down to complete the Crab pattern at D=5197 approx equal to 361.8% .


In the present scenario, the previous CD from 5912 to 5197 (shown in red lines)  becomes  the Wave XA for the next bearish pattern possibility



BEARISH BUTTERFLY PATTERN

Wave XA = 5912 – 5197 = 715 points.
 B = 5740 approx equal to 76.4% of XA
 Current C = 5495 = approxequal to 50% retr of AB at 5468
If this C holds then the target for D would be at

1.      61.8% = 5646 achieved
2.      100% = 5740 = 76.4% of XA = 5743
3.      127% = 5806

For the pattern to complete, D must move near to B. Incase the upmove is resisted at the current levels, then a new low C can be formed at 61.8% retr of AB = 5404

July 14, 2011

Analysis for july 14

Strength: NS has closed above the week and Day pivots and also above all Lema's and above the weekly 5Ema

Weakness : Ns has closed below the Day 5Ema and all Hi Ema's. Also the 5Ema is below the 5Sma.

The 38.2% retracement for the fall from 5740 -5497 is 5589 which is achieved. Owing to weak global cues Ns may be pulled down upto the Dlema  of 5564  - a close below which Ns would show more weakness.

Part booking of longs will be advisable at the DHema of 5631 and further longs can be carried only on at least an hourly close above 5635.

July 13, 2011

Analysis for July 13

NS exhibited weakness yesterday owing to Global weakness and found support at 50/20DMA and closed at 5526.

Weakness: NS has closed below all HEma's and Day Lema and all Pivots.
Strength : The 20DMA(5510) has just moved over the 50 DMA(5500.5) and if it holds then today a bounce back upto Dlema at 5576 is possible. It also accounts to almost 38.2% retr of the downmove from 5740 to 5497 - at 5589.

Todays Action Plan:

1. Buy above 5534 - Day pivot SL Hourly close below yesterdays close at 5526 for a target upto 5576 - 5589 DLema/38.2 fibo retr. Hold Longs with an hourly close above 5576.

2. Sell Below 5576 Day Lema with SL Hourly closing above 5580. Hold shorts if 5505 broken with revised Stoploss.
3. Sell Below 5505 - 20/50DMA SL hourly closing above 5510, target week LEma at 5453



Breaking out of the channel would lead NF to move futher upto minimum of 100MA at 5568-70. Breaking yesterdays lows would result in continuing of downmove within channel










July 12, 2011

NF trading within channel

Analysis for july 12

Nifty has closed just above the Dlema but closed below all the HEMA's and Pivots - which shows general weakness.
Owing to Global market conditions there might be a gap down expected which is prudent to part book intraday at 5585,5565 and 5532 - week 5ema 100 DMA and 38.2% retr respectively. If there is persistent selling it might drag the index to 5505 -50 DMA.



There are many supports between 5600-5500 at

 5 DMA  13 DMA  21DMA  34DMA  55DMA 
                   5,653          5,589          5,508          5,506         5,527
 5 EMA  13 EMA  21 EMA  34 EMA  55 EMA 
                   5,643          5,594          5,561          5,544         5,549


Breaking all there supports and a close below 5505 - 50 DMA would lead to more lows.


 

July 11, 2011

Analysis for July 11

The Weekly closing has formed a spinning top candle showing indecisiveness. This week a breakout of 5740 would lead to more upsides and a break below 5600 - would lead to more lows.















On Friday NS closed below all Pivot points and Day Hema's. Also the 5EMA is below the 5SMA indicating weakness. A Close above the DHema at 5698 would give chances for more upsides and a close below day Lema 5622 would lead to more Lows.

Todays Action Plan:
Buy Above 5705 with SL 5690 ( -10Points DHema)
Short below 5700 with SL hourly close above 5705
Book shorts near 5622 - Day Lema
Add more shorts below 5615 with SL hourly close above 5625