Analysis for jan 27

Intraday Update weekly chart; 9.30 AM

Initiated 50% shorts at 5190NS - 5193NF with SL Hour close above 5225NS.

ANALYSIS FOR JAN 27:

Todays important level 200DMA @ 5210 NS.
Aggressive short below 5200NS with SL 5210 Hour close.

BEARISH SHARK PATTERN UPDATE:

Bearish Shark Pattern:

OX - 5400 - 4639
A - 5099 - approx 61.8% retr of OX
B - 4531 - >113% and < 127% retrof XA
Proj for C:
113% of AB - 5172 - achieved
127% of AB -  5252.36
88.6% of OX - 5313

Week levels		Developing levels
CLOSE	5049	CLOSE
PIVOT	4980	PIVOT	5118
HI EMA	4939	HI EMA	5017
LOW EMA	4714	LOW EMA	4816
5 EMA	4874	5 EMA	4969
10 EMA	4876	10 EMA	4831
PrevHigh	5064	High	5174
Prev Low	4827	LOW	5021

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5158
PIVOT	5106	5 SMA	5080
HI EMA	5097	5EMA	5082
LOW EMA	5040	10EMA	5008
prev HI	4903	13EMA	4976
prev LOW	5130	26EMA	4883
100 DMA	4947	20 Hr MA	5104
200 DMA	5218	50 Hr MA	5034

ANALYSIS FOR JAN 25

Intraday update 11.15AM:

Analysis for jan 25:

WAIT FOR ENTRY !!!!

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5127
PIVOT	5106	5 SMA	5039
HI EMA	5058	5EMA	5044
LOW EMA	4995	10EMA	4975
prev HI	5141	13EMA	4945
prev LOW	5050	26EMA	4883
100 DMA	4943	20 Hr MA	5066
200 DMA	5221	50 Hr MA	4993

ANALYSIS FOR JAN 24

Intraday update 3.00 pm:

Nifty testing important trendline:

A close above this level would take NS to 200 DMA swiftly



LESSON LEARNT:
Missed the long entry on 18/19 JAN BELOW 5000 levels - still struggling hard to reenter longs. So kept on  looking out for shorting oppurtunity and missed yesterdays low at Day HEMA to enter longs and today's low 10 point short of Day's pivot to go long. BIASED VIEW IS THE MOST DANGEROUS ENEMY OF ANY TRADER!!!

Intraday update 11.45 AM:

24/01/2012 10:00	5,064.80	5,072.00	5,051.85	5,058.35
24/01/2012 11:00	5,058.35	5,069.25	5,049.80	5,065.20

With a  close above 5065 at 11.00AM the aggressive shorts were terminated at 5075NS - due to the jump in NS due to the CRR rate Cut.

Next cluster resistance at 5160-75 ranges corresponding to the 113% retr of Bearish shark Pattern CLICK HERE. A short near 5175-5200 with 200DMA as SL would be a prudent entry.

Analysis for Jan 24:
Nifty has closed just above the Day Pivot exhibiting some strength. It is exhibiting a very short term weakness as the 5Day SMA has closed above the 5EMA. The Hour TF is quite Overbought and an intracorrection upto 5000 levels would give a good reentry oppurtunity to enter Longs.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5046
PIVOT	5042	10EMA	4941
HI EMA	5016	13EMA	4915
LOW EMA	4986	26EMA	4849
5EMA	5002	prev HI	5060
5 SMA	5007	prev LOW	5021
20 Hr MA	5032	100 DMA	4940
50 Hr MA	4957	200 DMA	5225

The SL for the aggressive shorts taken yesterday remains the same as Hour close above 5070 NS. The channelresistance for the day comes to around 5095-5100 crossing which again the medium term trendline resists at 5110 - 5120NS. Crossing these resistances and a close above this would easily lead Nifty to 5220 levels near 200 DMA.

IF NIFTY CLOSES BELOW THE DAY HEMA OF 5016 THE SHORTS WOULD REMAIN. IF GAINED SUPPORT AT THESE RANGES THEN THE SHORTS ARE TO BE TERMINATED AT 5000 - 4990 LEVELS AND A FRESH LONG IS TO BE ENTERED WITH THE DAY 5EMA AS SL.

	Trade Table
Current pattern	O-X	A	B
Bearish Shark pattern	5400 - 4639	5099	4531
Trade initiated	SL Day close below 4990NS
Buy above 5000-5030 NS	Projections for C
	94.43%	5067.00
	113.00%	5173.00
	127.00%	5252.00

AGGRESIVE TRADE SL - HR CLOSE ABOVE 5070 TGT 5000 - 4990. NEAR DAY HEMA OR DAY 5EMA.
 

ANALYSIS FOR JAN 23

Intraday update 3.00 PM:
Holding shorts positionally as the SL was not hit.

Intraday update 1.00 PM:

23/01/2012 11:00	5,053.75	5,055.40	5,044.30	5,051.20
23/01/2012 12:00	5,051.20	5,052.45	5,032.25	5,036.90
23/01/2012 13:00	5,036.90	5,047.10	5,029.60	5,037.80

the low of 5029 exactly tests the lowerline of the rising wedge. Breakdown of the low would be breakdown of rising wedge.

 Intraday Update 11.00 Am:
Hour chart with Divergences:

Aggressively shorted at 5050NS with SL Hour close above 5065.

ANALYSIS FOR JAN 23:

Nifty has easily moved past the Day, week and minthly resistance and is trading firmly above all 5 EMA's (monthly/weekly/and Daily) and ablve the week and Day Hema's.
As of now intraday weakness would set in only with a close below the Pivot - 5039 and subsequently the Day Hema of 4995.

Week levels
CLOSE	5049
PIVOT	4980
HI EMA	4939
LOW EMA	4714
5 EMA	4874
10 EMA	4876
PrevHigh	5064
Prev Low	4827

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5049
PIVOT	5039	10EMA	4918
HI EMA	4995	13EMA	4893
LOW EMA	4941	26EMA	4849
5EMA	4980	prev HI	5064
5 SMA	4973	prev LOW	5004
20 Hr MA	4843	100 DMA	4938
50 Hr MA	4928	200 DMA	5229

The Bearish Bat pattern has given its complete target of 5064 - 224%  retr of BC.
The Bearish Shark pattern of the Day TF has reached 94.3% retr @ 5064.
5068 - is the 61.8% retr - GOLDEN RATIO for the leg from 5400 -4531.

BEARISH SHARK PATTERN:

OX - 5400 - 4639

A - 5099 - approx 61.8% retr of OX
B - 4531 - >113% and < 127% retrof XA
Proj for C:
88.6% of AB- 5034
94.43%  - 5064 - achieved
113% - 5172

5172 is the initial taget for the Bearish shark pattern Day TF. Holding above the Day Hema this target is achieveable.

As the previous LONG entry which should have been taken at Day close above 4970 - Month 5EMA was missed -  waiting for an oppurtunity to go LONG near the Day HEMA or DAY PIVOT.  

	Trade Table
Current pattern	O-X	A	B
Bearish Shark pattern	5400 - 4639	5099	4531
Trade initiated	SL Day close below 4990NS
Buy above 5000-5030 NS	Projections for C
	88.60%	5034.00
	94.43%	5067.00
	113.00%	5173.00
	127.00%	5252.00

AGGRESSIVE SHORTS CAN BE TAKEN AT 5060NS WITH SL HOUR CLOSE ABOVE 5070NS AND CAN CONVERT TO POSITIONAL IF DAY CLOSES BELOW ITS DAY HEMA - ELSE COULD BOOK PROFITS INTRADAY AT DAY HEMA.

	Retracements
	5.57%	5038.43
4588 -5065	9.02%	5021.97
	14.60%	4995.36