This blog is my trading diary. It is an attempt to organise my analysis and thoughts. I follow the charting methods given in JUST NIFTY blog by Ilango sir and so the charts would have striking resemblance to his charts. I am indebted to Ilango sir for having made this blog possible for me.

Showing posts with label -ve divergence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label -ve divergence. Show all posts

September 11, 2023

NIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 11th SEPT

 Recap of 8th Analysis and trade:

Nifty was supported @ 19725 and on breakout of 19740 - reached a high of 19867 - 78.2% retracement and cluster resistance and closed @ 17819.

Trades taken:

Bought 19700 CE on breakout of 19740 and squared off @ nifty spot 19850 levels  - one good trade done

NIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 11TH SEPT 2023:

Prev Day:

High - 19867

low - 19727

Close - 19819


Nifty has reached the cluster resistance & 78.2 Fibo ratio @ 19687. RSI charts shows -ve divergence.

A pause likely till 19870 is taken out. Fibo retracements to be watched below 19800.

INTRADAY LEVELS:

Bullish above 19870 towards Nifty prev high 19991

Bearish if resisted @ 19870 and below 19800 - drag towards 19720 levels. 

PRICE ACTION LEVELS:

19870

19795

19740-19725










October 12, 2012

Analysis for Oct 12

Nifty Gathered support from 20 DMA and closed exactly at 10 DMA and below Day HEMA.
Today Being week close, A close below the Week HEMA @ 5699 would weaken Nifty.  Strength if closed above the Day HEMA 5727.

WEEK CHARTS:

If the -VE divergence in weekly charts comes to play then more downsides would be seen.


If the -ve divergence comes to play then Nifty would be dragged further down towards channel bottom.

August 31, 2012

ANALYSIS FOR AUG 31

INTRADAY UPDATE 2.00 PM:
5240NS achieved. Aggressive Longs are taken at 5242NS (5275NF) with Stoploss 5220NS EOD - Break of Month 5EMA -

Stoploss for existing Shorts trailed to EOD close above 5310NS - above Current Day LEMA and Day 5EMA.

INTRADAY UPDATE 10.45 am:


BULLISHLY ALLIGNED MOVING AVERAGES
Possibility of Fast Rise between 50 and 100 Ma averages and 20 and 200 MA's.
An Hourly Close below the 200 Hr MA - currently 5277 - signals weakness.

July 11, 2012

Analysis for JULY 11

INtraday Update 2.15 PM:


Break of today's current low of 5302 low will be breakdown of Rising Wedge!!!

Analysis for July 11:
Nifty has closed above the Pivot, Day Hema and 5 EMA. It has almost reached the top of the Rising wedge with Month HEMA at 5342 as a big resistance,

DAy charts and Hour Charts also exhibits -ve divergence and are in OverBought zone. So Caution with Longs is a must.




Aggressive Shorts taken at 5330 NS with SL Hourly close above 5345. It would be carried as positional Shorts if the EOD close is below 5345-50NS.




CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE53455 SMA5313
PIVOT53265EMA5307
HI EMA532010EMA5270
LOW EMA526913EMA5249
prev HI534920 Hr MA5301
prev LOW528550 Hr MA5297
10 DMA5270
20 DMA5193

June 8, 2012

Analysis for June 8

Intraday update 3.30 PM:



The current high of 5082 exactly meets the trendline joining from 5629, 5499, 5342 and 5279

Intradayupdate 3.00 pm:
Booked out Agressive shorts at 4990NF.


Nity reached 200 DMA and week Hema but closed below both. Upward movement would continue on a close above 5064 - 200 DMA  to reach 5170-75 levels near 100 DMA.

Hourly charts 14 RSI Fmacd charts and Day 5D and 9RSI charts show -ve divergence. Curently 200 DMA likely to act as resistance. If today's close is above 5065 then next week good upsides possibilities arises. Till then it is an aggressive sell at 5050 levels with 5065 SL on EOD basis.





0-5 Harmonic pattern:



The Bullish 5-0 starts at the 0 point, representing an extended down leg to begin the pattern at
X. The initial point X acts as the low of this prior substantial decline. After a quick reactive
bounce to the A point, the structure abruptly continues the decline, only to find support slightly
past the prior low at X. This is the failed wave 3 or wave 5 – in Elliot Wave terms – that
establishes the rest of the structure. However, the important limits from the Harmonic Trading
perspective requires that this X, A extension be at least a 1.13 but not greater than a 1.618.
After that impulsive failed wave is established, the BC leg rallies to at least a 1.618 extension
of the AB length but it does not exceed 2.24. Again, this tight range of 1.618-2.24 is a
defining element of the structure. If the 1.618 limit is not reached, the structure is not a valid
5-0.

As per the above pattern more steam is left upsides. If the 200 DMA is resisted and nifty closes EOD below the Day Hema then this pattern stand invalidated as only 113% retr is achieved upto 5052.




Developing Week levels
CLOSE
PIVOT4960
HI EMA5064
LOW EMA4850
5 EMA4980
10 EMA5042
PrevHigh5060
Prev Low4770



CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE50505 SMA4920
PIVOT50395EMA4962
HI EMA498410EMA4941
LOW EMA490913EMA4941
prev HI506026DEMA4978
prev LOW500820 Hr MA4963
50 DMA5093200 Hr MA4971
200 DMA5063


Trade Table:


Trade Table
Current patternX-AB(current)
0-5 pattern and Butterfly pattern (week)4804 - 50204770
Trade initiatedSL Day HEMA - 4984
Bought at 4830NF on june 4Proj for C
113.00%5052.00
161.80%5174.00
Partbooked at 5030 NF on june 6



Aggressive TradeReason for trade
Sold at 5030NF on june 6SL EOD close above 5065200 DMA and Week HEMA

Partbook at 4984 & hold if Hour Close below 4984 Else book out.




February 3, 2012

Analysis for feb 3


Nifty Closed with a doji depicting indecisiveness.  Protecting 200DMA and Day 5 EMa at 5200, more upsides beyond 5300++ is possible. The developing Weekly Pivot at 5210 also provides good supports.

WEEKLY CHART:
The Long term TRENDLINE is breached in weekly charts and sustaining above the trendline is a must for further upmoves.



DAY CHART:



The Negative Divergence developed in day charts is to be noted:



HOUR CHART:  If a fall is supported at the trendline another high is possible approximately near the DAY 5EMA @ 5204 - corresponding to 200 DMA.
A close below this would lead to more corrections.
Supported here would take Nifty to 5300 ++


LEVELS TO BE NOTED FOR TODAY:
5285 -5300 - RESISTANCES
5200-5210 - SUPPORTS


Week levelsDeveloping week levels
CLOSE5205CLOSE
PIVOT5148PIVOT5212
HI EMA5031HI EMA5118
LOW EMA4816LOW EMA4903
5 EMA49845 EMA5029
PrevHigh52175 SMA4831
Prev Low5021 High5290
40 Wk MA5170LOW5077



CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE5270
PIVOT52625 SMA5198
HI EMA52235EMA5204
LOW EMA515210EMA5106
prev HI529013EMA5100
prev LOW522626EMA4999
20 DMA499220 Hr MA5157
200 DMA520150 Hr MA
5115



POSITIONAL LONGS CAN BE TAKEN IF THE DAY CLOSE IS ABOVE 5200 NS.

March 21, 2011

Inverse H&S and -ve divergence!! in 5min NF!!!

-ve divergence won against inverse H&S!!!




































There is an inverse H&S formation and also -ve divergence can be spotted!!! which will come into effect???