NIFTY ANALYSIS

FOR TATAMOTORS ANALYSIS CLICK HERE

NIFTY ANALYSIS:

Nifty has made a Life time high and has done a Pull back of almost 200 points.

DATE	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	5 EMA	10 EMA
25-Apr-14	6870	6773	6783	6796	6774
28-Apr-14	6786	6750	6761	6785	6772
29-Apr-14	6780	6709	6715	6762	6762
30-Apr-14	6780	6657	6696	6740	6750
2-May-14	6738	6690	6695	6725	6740

5 DMA	10 DMA	HIGH EMA	LOW EMA
6807	6781	6841	6775
6804	6778	6823	6766
6783	6770	6808	6747
6759	6762	6799	6717
6730	6758	6779	6708

Nifty has closed below all parameters in day TF. The Day TF charts have been consistently exhibiting -ve divergences.

Hour charts are reaching the Over Sold area - and the channel breakout is above 6710 - Day LEMA. An EOD CLOSE above the Day LEMA would put a pause to the down movement.

NIFTY ANALYSIS

Monthly Chart:

Break of 5950 levels and weekly close below it would bring down Nifty to the CHANNEL support

 

NIFTY at interesting JUNCTURE !!!!

NIfty is poised at an interesting juncture. The Current Month low of 5760 is a Long Term Support and any break of the levels 5760-20 wouldlead to a heavy downfall. Holding 5760-5720 levels is very very important if any upmove is to take place. Few Charts:

MONTH LOG CHART:

The Chart is Self - explanatory.

NIFTY ANALYSIS -

Nifty Has made a High of 6038 - Will it be a temporary TOP??? last Month (CLICK HERE) from the SUPPORT of  5566 (CLICK HERE) Nifty has reached upto 6038 -  Month HEMA. The Charts show major resistance at this juncture. So Taking out 6040 levels at the Month End is the Key for further Upsides. Nifty Had been trading in a tight range for the past two months within Long term Support and Long term Resistances. Breakout on either side would lead to Huge Moves.

NIFTY - MAKE OR BREAK????

Nifty is currently at it long term support area of 5550 levels. Today being series expiry and tomorrow being the week/month END - holding on to 5550 levels is very important to stall a downmove. Any close tomorrow below 5550 - 5500 would open the flood gates for nifty to have a free fall. Now to charts

Monthly Chart:

  As per the Monthly charts, Nifty is within a tight range of Contracting Triangle and this month's High and Low  are exactly at the boundaries of the triangle. So currently a breakdown below 5550 and a weekly close below it would be disastrous. Holding on to 5550 levels is VERY VERY IMPORTANT.

Day Chart:

Falling Wedge Breakout above 5635 - An EOD close above it is essential for a breakout.
5 DMA - 5622
5EMA - 5636
Day LEMA - 5610
Current Month LEMA - 5651

Aggressive Buy above 5635 with Stoploss EOD close below Day LEMA - 5610.
Sell below 5550 with SL EOD close above 5610 - Day LEMA

NIFTY MONTH AND WEEK ANALYSIS

Nifty has made a run from the low of 5477 till 6070.15 - today's high as of now. With the High 6112 -  made in Jan 2013 a Bearish Gartley Harmonic pattern(CLICK HERE)  was complete in Monthly Time Frame. Now a Bullish bat pattern is in the making.

BULLISH BAT PATTERN:

X-A - 4770 - 6112

B - 5447 - 50%  RETR OF XA 5441

C (current) - 6070.15 - approx -88.6% of AB

Proj for D:

38.2% - 5775.36

50% - 5807.75

61.8% - 5703.5

ABCD pattern -HIGHLY BULLISH

If 6112 is crossed decisively then, it becomes an ABCD pattern with vertices,

A -4770

B-6112

C - 5477

&Proj for D:

113% of BC - 6194

127% of BC - 6283

141.4% - 6374

161.8% - 6504

The deciding levels are between 6070 and 6112. Caution with Longs till 6112 is desicively crossed. Positional shorts if taken the stoploss should be strictly maintained at EOD close above 6112. 

WEEKLY CHARTS:

  The weekly charts also exhibits resistance at current levels and the indicator is Highly Over Bought. Caution with Longs till 6112 is taken out decisively.

ANALYSIS FOR SEPT 12

Nifty Has closed near the High and has closed above all parameters in Month, Week and Day TF. With respect to the TA parameters Nifty is in complete Bullishness - may be a time to excercise some caution - b'coz Nifty is likely to face trendline resistance at 5410-20. REFER CHARTS OF SEPT 11. 

MONTH CHART:

Analysis for Aug 17

Nifty has reached the RESISTANCE POINT of the weekly/Monthly chart with a High of 5398. It also coincides with the 113% retrcement of 5349-5032 - Develoing into a BULLISH SHARK PATTERN (Click Here).

NIFTY MONTH CHART;

NIFTY WEEK CHART:

Analysis for Aug 9

Intraday Update 3.00 PM:

Aggressive shorts booked Intraday at 5320NS/5340NF levels. Created Long at 5320 NS with SL EOD close below 5295 - 10 Points below 5EMA.


ANALYSIS FOR AUG 9:
A firm weekend closing and a Gap Up on Monday Aug 6th has firmly put Nifty on the uptrend path and the Bullish Bat Harmonic Pattern has got invalidated on a Move above 5349 and now it is either the the continuation of 5-0 Pattern - REFER JULY 31 ANALYSIS AND CHART (CLICK HERE) OR Development of Bullish Shark Pattern.

An Inverted Head and Shoulder has formed in the Day Charts and currently NIFTY is at the Neckline of the H&S.

INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDER
If Neckline Resisted, then the Bullish Shark Pattern would be the result
If Breakout occurs then it would be the continuation of the 5-0 Pattern

MONTHLY CHART:

WEEKLY CHART: Currently resisting at Trendline/Contracting Triangle.

HOUR CHART : NIFTY within Channel:

SYNOPSIS:

 Aggressive shorts taken at 5375NF today morning with 5405 NS STRICT STOPLOSS. - based on Trendline/Inverted H&S/Channel Breakout.

Supports can be expected at 5344 Ns -Month HEMA, 5330 Developing HEMA hence book out aggressive shorts intraday at these levels.

Positional shorts should be carried forward only on CLOSE BELOW DAY HEMA 5325NS.

IF EOD CLOSE ABOVE DAY HEMA 5330, THEN BUY AT 5330-40 LEVELS WITH STOPLOSS BELOW 5320 DAY HEMA

ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 25

NIFTY has closed well above weekly TA parameters of Pivot, 5 EMA and High EMA but closed below the Day HEMA. The TA parameters represent Bullishness - whereas the Patterns developed are Bearish Patterns or rather reversal patterns from Bullishness to Bearishness.

WEEK CHART:

The HANGING MAN PATTERN (CLICK HERE) is a reversal pattern though a follow up price confirmation is required.

DAY CHART :

RISING WEDGE if breaks past the TRENDLINE - then would likely reach the CHANNEL TOP above 5250++. If the RISING WEDGE come to play then there will be a breakdown below 5125 NS and further fall upto 5030-4980 would be imminent. If supported at the Base of the Rising wedge, then it would mve past the Rising wedge above 5175 would move higer breaking past the TRENDLINE  to reach 5250++.

BEARISH CROSS IN DAY CHART WITH BULLISH TA :

In The Golden Crossover 50DMA over 200 DMA -occured earlier - has not yet provided significant upmove as Nifty had closed above 50 DMA only once. Now there is a BEARISH crossover rather the DEath Cross - 50DMA below the 200 DMA but NS has closed both above the 50 and 200 DMA. So the pattern is Bearish But the TA is BULLISH!!

HOUR CHART:

The Hour Moving averages are Bullishly alligned whereas the Pattens formed are bearish. Rising wedge resistance, trendline resistance and resistance at 5190 100 DMA.

5-0 Bullish Harmonic Pattern:

Development of Bullish 5-0 pattern:
XA - 4804 - 5020
B - 4770 - 113% retr of XA
Current C -5190 - 161% retr of AB
Projection for D:
50% -4980
4950-70 - Potential Reversal Zone - PRZ

As per the pattern Nifty must reach 50% retr level of 4980 before crossing the High of 5190.

SYNOPSIS: ONLY WITH A BREAKOUT ABOVE THE TRENDLINE @ 5175 FOLLOWED BY CLOSING ABOVE 5190 100 DMA THE UPTREND WOULD CONTINUE.
SUPPORTS AT 5125-20 RANGES - WEEK HEMA
                          5080 - 5070 - Day LEMA/ Week 10 EMA
RESISTANCES AT 5165 - trendline resistance/Day HEMA
                                 5195 - 100 DMA

Though the TA is BULLISH as the PATTERNS formed are Bearish Coution with Longs at 5180 -5210 levels is very essential.

Week Levels
CLOSE	5146
PIVOT	5126
HI EMA	5128
LOW EMA	4950
5 EMA	5074
10 EMA	5078
PrevHigh	5190
Prev Low	5042

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5146	5 SMA	5120
PIVOT	5133	5EMA	5130
HI EMA	5152	10EMA	5100
LOW EMA	5080	13EMA	5084
prev HI	5160	20 Hr MA	5126
prev LOW	5094	50 Hr MA	5108
50 DMA	5058	100 Hr MA	5063
200 DMA	5073	200 Hr MA	4982
100  DMA	5196
20 DMA	5030

Analysis for JUNE 15

Intraday Update 11.00AM:

For the past two hours the Low has not breached the 200 DMA and so reentered Longs at 5080NF with SL EOD  close below 200 DMA - 5065.

	Trade Table
Current pattern	X-A	B(current)
0-5 pattern and Butterfly pattern (week)	4804 - 5020	4770
Trade initiated	SL 200 DMA - 5065NS
Re-entered LONG at 5080NF on june 15	Proj for C
	113.00%	5052.00
	161.80%	5174.00
	224.00%	5330.00
Partbooked at 5030 NF on june 7
Part booked at 5135NF on 13 June
SL triggerred at 5090 NS on june 14

Analysis for Jun 15:
Nifty Got resisted from the Pivot and ended just above the Day LEMA and Day 10 EMA. Holding the Day LEMa and 10 EMA a Bounce is likely. A close above todays developing Week HEMA of 5096 would turn the picture bullish again and Nifty is likely to scale above 5200++. If the Close is below Week HEMA abd Day Hema of 5096-5110 - then again Nifty would be moving in a range between 5009 - 5100 - Corresponding to Week 5EMA and week HEMA.

The yesterday's low of 5054 is being supported by the channel.

Aggressive trade:
Buy at ranges of 5020 - 5035 with SL EOD close below 5000 - corresponding to Week 5 EMA.

Developing Week Levels
CLOSE
PIVOT	5072
HI EMA	5096
LOW EMA	4905
5 EMA	5009
10 EMA	5047
PrevHigh	5145
Prev Low	5015

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5055	5 SMA	5083
PIVOT	5077	5EMA	5067
HI EMA	5110	10EMA	5032
LOW EMA	5031	13EMA	5018
prev HI	5130	20 Hr MA	5096
prev LOW	5048	50 Hr MA	5054
50 DMA	5077	100 Hr MA	4985
200 DMA	5065	200 Hr MA	4954
100  DMA	5194