Analysis for feb 3

Nifty Closed with a doji depicting indecisiveness.  Protecting 200DMA and Day 5 EMa at 5200, more upsides beyond 5300++ is possible. The developing Weekly Pivot at 5210 also provides good supports.

WEEKLY CHART:
The Long term TRENDLINE is breached in weekly charts and sustaining above the trendline is a must for further upmoves.

DAY CHART:

The Negative Divergence developed in day charts is to be noted:

HOUR CHART:  If a fall is supported at the trendline another high is possible approximately near the DAY 5EMA @ 5204 - corresponding to 200 DMA.

A close below this would lead to more corrections.
Supported here would take Nifty to 5300 ++

LEVELS TO BE NOTED FOR TODAY:

5285 -5300 - RESISTANCES

5200-5210 - SUPPORTS

Week levels		Developing week levels
CLOSE	5205	CLOSE
PIVOT	5148	PIVOT	5212
HI EMA	5031	HI EMA	5118
LOW EMA	4816	LOW EMA	4903
5 EMA	4984	5 EMA	5029
PrevHigh	5217	5 SMA	4831
Prev Low	5021	High	5290
40 Wk MA	5170	LOW	5077

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5270
PIVOT	5262	5 SMA	5198
HI EMA	5223	5EMA	5204
LOW EMA	5152	10EMA	5106
prev HI	5290	13EMA	5100
prev LOW	5226	26EMA	4999
20 DMA	4992	20 Hr MA	5157
200 DMA	5201	50 Hr MA	5115

POSITIONAL LONGS CAN BE TAKEN IF THE DAY CLOSE IS ABOVE 5200 NS.

ANALYSIS FOR FEB 2

Intraday Update 10.30 AM:

Hour chart:

Day chart:

ANALYSIS FOR FEB 2:

Nifty closed at 5236 above the 200 DMA. Sustaining and closing above the 200 DMA is very important for furhter upmoves - as it has tested the Long term trendline/channel at the High of 5245.

Not only the channel joining the Highs has completed a channel, but the channel formed by closing values also has completed a channel.

The day close during the following sessions must close above the channel for futher upmoves. If the closing is within the channel - then a pause is likely for the upmove.

Weekly channel resistances: (for previous chart click here)

Considering the Harmonic Pattern, the Bearish Shark Pattern of the Day TF is continuing. The initial target of the Pattern is 88.6% of OX ( i.e - 5400 - 4639) which arrives at 5313.

ALL FACTORS POINT OUT TO CONTINUED BULLISHNESS - A REASON FOR TRADERS TO BE CAUTIOUS!! A HUGE BEARISH ABCD RECIPROCAL PATTERN HAS EMERGED.

BEARISH RECIPROCAL ABCD Pattern:AB - 5177 - 5944
C - 4531- greater than 161.8% retr of AB.
As per the pattern, C must be greater then 161.8% but less than 200%
200% of AB is projected as 4410
Projected D : must be above 50% retr and below 61.8% retr of BC
50% - 5237 - achieved.
61.8% - 5404

One can expect any shorting oppurtunity from 5300 - 5400. THIS PATTERN GETS INVALIDATED ABOVE 5405 - 5410 NS. 

FOR ANY LONGS CLOSE BELOW THE 200 DMA @ 5200 NS MUST BE THE STRICT STOPLOSS.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5236
PIVOT	5213	5 SMA	5176
HI EMA	5190	5EMA	5171
LOW EMA	5115	10EMA	5106
prev HI	5245	13EMA	5072
prev LOW	5159	26EMA	4977
100 DMA	4954	20 Hr MA	5157
200 DMA	5204	50 Hr MA	5115

AGGRESSIVE TRADES:

BUY ABOVE 5215 NS WITH SL HOUR CLOSE BELOW PIVOT 5210/ 200 DMA 5204.

SELL BELOW 5300 WITH SL 5320NS BASED ON THE INITIAL TARGET OF THE BEARISH SHARK PATTERN.

ANALYSIS FOR FEB 1

Nifty closed near the Month High at 5199 well above the 5EMA and 10 EMA but below the Month Hema. Month levels remaining above the 5EMA would help Nifty to push further upwards.

Monthly chart:

Month Levels
CLOSE	5194
PIVOT	4964
HI EMA	5286
LOW EMA	4684
5 EMA	5002
10 EMA	5165
PrevHigh	5217
Prev Low	4588

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5194
PIVOT	5170	5 SMA	5154
HI EMA	5147	5EMA	5139
LOW EMA	5080	10EMA	5078
prev HI	5196	13EMA	5044
prev LOW	5120	26EMA	4973
100 DMA	4952	20 Hr MA	5157
200 DMA	5203	50 Hr MA	5115

Analysis for Jan 31

Intraday Update 12.00Noon:

SL trigerred for the Aggressive short taken on friday at 5150NF.

ANALYSIS FOR JAN 31:
Nifty fell from the day Hema to close above the Day LEma but below the Pivot.   A close below the Day HEMA but above the DAY LEMA has resulted in a trading range between the Day HEMA and Day LEMA. Channel supports are present in Day and Hour Charts near the DAy LEMA and 50 HR MA.

Developing Month Levels
CLOSE
PIVOT	4964
HI EMA	5286
LOW EMA	4684
5 EMA	5002
3 EMA	4956
PrevHigh	5217
Prev Low	4588

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5087
PIVOT	5110	5 SMA	5125
HI EMA	5147	5EMA	5111
LOW EMA	5080	10EMA	5052
prev HI	5166	13EMA	5020
prev LOW	5077	26EMA	4938
100 DMA	4951	20 Hr MA	5155
200 DMA	5210	50 Hr MA	5092

SL for shorts Remains the same with Hour close above 5125.

Levels for Intraday trade:
Sell Below 5145NS with SL close above 5150 NS Day HEMA target near Day LEMA
Buy above 5090-5100NS with SL close below 5080 Day LEMA target near Day HEMA.

ANALYSIS FOR JAN 30

INTRADAY UPDATE 2.20PM:

SL TRAILED TO DAY CLOSE ABOVE 5125 DAY 5 EMA as upward momentum could continue only if Day closes above the Day 5EMA.

INTRADAY UPDATE 12.15PM:

The 12.00 Noon closing is below the DHEMA of 5135. So trailing the SL to Close above 5140 NS.


ANALYSIS FOR JAN 30
Nifty had ended the week near the long term resistance Line and also the day ended with a Hanging man pattern. This is a Bearish Reversal pattern which is to be confirmed by following candle.

As Nifty has closed just below the 200 DMA and testing the long term trendline resistance, it has given the possibility of a Bearish butterfly in weekly charts. Further strength for upmove would be possible with a close above 200 DMA 5220 - which would result in continuation of the Huge Bearish shark formed from 5740 levels.

.

 PROBABLE DEVELOPMENT OF BEARISH BUTTERFLY IN WEEKLY CHARTS:

Below 5217 - Possibility of a Bearish Butterfly developing.XA - 5400 - 4531

B - 5217 - 78.6% retr of XA
Projected C:
23.6% - 5055
38.2% - 4955
ABOVE 5220 Bearish shark (click Here)  would continue for Higher targets upto 5500 ++

Week levels
CLOSE	5205
PIVOT	5148
HI EMA	5031
LOW EMA	4816
5 EMA	4984
10 EMA	4936
PrevHigh	5217
Prev Low	5021
40 Wk MA	5170

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5205
PIVOT	5195	5 SMA	5117
HI EMA	5137	5EMA	5123
LOW EMA	5081	10EMA	5044
prev HI	5217	13EMA	5008
prev LOW	5162	26EMA	4926
100 DMA	4950	20 Hr MA	5104
200 DMA	5214	50 Hr MA	5034

THE SL FOR THE AGGRESSIVE SHORTS TAKEN ON FRIDAY REMAINS THE SAME AS CLOSE ABOVE 5220 NS