Analysis for Oct 21

NIFTY MIDWAY BETWEEN HOUR TF - DAY TF:

Hour TF Bullish Crab Pattern:                           Day TF Bearish Shark Pattern:
XA=  4758 -5160                                                 OX= 5168 - 4728
   B =5011 - 38.2% retr of XA                               A = 5034 - 61.8% retr of OX
   C = 5148-  94.3% retr of AB                              B = 4728 - 113% of XA
   D = 5033 (current)                                               C = 5148 (current)
                                                                              
 Projections for D:                                                Projection for C:                         

50.00%	5079.00	50Hr MA
61.80%	5063.00	week Pivot		113.00%	5179.00
70.70%	5051.00	55 DMA		127.00%	5200.00
78.60%	5040.00	Day Lema		161.80%	5252.00
88.60%	5026.00	13 Dema
94.30%	5018.00	26 Dema
113.00%	4993.00	week 5SMA
127.00%	4974.00	20DMA

Analysis for Oct 20

Nifty opened with a Gap Up and closed well above the Week HEma, Day Hema and Day Pivot Indicating Strength.  If the prev month High of 5160 is breached then it is poised to move upto the 100DMA at 5260.

As per the current Bullish crab pattern the prev High 5160 (Point A) must not be breached. If NS moves beyond 5160, then the pattern becomes invalid and the possibility of a Bullish shark pattern or a Reciprocal Bullish ABCD Pattern is present.

Reciprocal AB=CD:

The 5-0 pattern incorporates a new type of AB=CD measurement - a Reciprocal

AB=CD pattern. A Reciprocal AB=CD pattern is typically a shorter counter move of

equal length within a longer trend. They look like a lazy "Z" or "S."

In the above Pattern C = 161.8% projection of AB or 224% ofAB

                         and D = 50% projection of BC.

Analysis for Oct 19

Nifty Had a Big gap down opening yesterday and found support at Day Lema/50DMA/26Dema (4995-5005) corresponding to approximately 38.2% retracement (4995) of the leg 4728-5160.

If the Low of 5011-4995  holds today then Nifty is likely to reach upto the Day Hema of 5085-95 levels.

Breaking of yesterday's low would lead Nifty to 20DMA at 4968 breaking of which would lead to Month Lema of 4930.

Based on the strength of trading above pivot 5034 Longs can be initiated with SL close below 5010. Strict SL should be maintained for the Longs.

Analysis for Oct 18

Nifty made a High of 5160 almost equal to the Sept Month High (141.6% retracement) and faced resistance and made a Low of 5085 exactly at week Hema @ Day Hema and closed at 5118 just below the pivot of 5121.

Closing below the pivot shows signs of weakness and closing below the Day Hema @ 5110 would add to the weakness.

 Considering yesterday High @ 5160 - the week Hema figures out tobe 5109. So a close below 5100 is likely to trigger off a sell upto the 50DMA @ 5012 or the Day Lema @ 5027.

The SAR for the trade initiated at 5110NF is Hr close below 5080. If triggered the shorts can be partbooked at 4995-4967 levels corresponding to 38.2% retracement of the rise from 4728 -5160.

Analysis for OCT 17

Nifty Moved well above the Week Hema and closed near its day/ week High and has closed above the Day Pivot of 5110.  It has closed above the Day Hema consecutively for the past 5 Trading days which shows bullishness.

Initially it is likely to face resistance at the 141.4% retracement of the wave 5034-4728 (AB) of the Prevailing Bearish Shark Pattern 5160-70 which corresponds to  prev Month high - and a move past this would take Nifty to 100 DMA 5250-70 - this corresponds to 161.8% retracement of AB.

If NS starts to trade below the Day Pivot/Day Hema then weakness would set in. Breaking of Week Hema @ 5084 would lead to more downsides.

WEEKLY CHART; Click Here

WEEKLY ANALYSIS for week ended OCT 14

Last Week Nifty conquered first the Month Lema @ 4930(after 2 months) and next the Week Hema of 5080 (after 14 weeks) and closed well above it. A Huge Bullish Candle has been formed with the open and Low at the same point (WHITE MARUBOZU)

Previously whenever such Bullish Candles occured the next week's continuation pattern was a Bullish trend reversal Candle Pattern - which lead NS to more downsides.

Considering the weeks white marubozu and viewing this w.r.t the Week 5D indicator - which always helps in Leading, the likelyhood of continuation of  the bullish trend is possible!!



In the Previous cases the 5D indicator was in a Highly Overbought Condition which signalled a down trend any time inspite of the Bullish candles. The 5D indicator of present Week hastriggered a BUY and it is  midway and not OverBought providing more room for upsides. So until the Week Hema @ 5084 is not breached, the uptrend is likely to contine to conquer the 100 DMA at 5270.

WITH A DAY CLOSE BELOW THE WEEK HEMA OF 5084 NS WILL AGAIN RESUME ITS DOWNTREND.

A Bearish Crab pattern has been formed in Weekly Charts:

The Pattern has initial targets (in week TF) upto 113% @ 5226 and 161.8% @ 5441 - which is 200DMA. The Long term Trendline joining the previous Highs will be reached at these levels!!

When NS closes well above the 200DMA at 5450 levels - as per the pattern it can reach a max of 224% -5715 to 361.8% - 6323 - But considering the present scenario these are far fetched and so it would be prudent to go step by step rather than waiting for weird targets.