Showing posts with label Bearish Bat Pattern. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bearish Bat Pattern. Show all posts
July 16, 2013
NIFTY ANALYSIS -
Nifty Has made a High of 6038 - Will it be a temporary TOP??? last Month (CLICK HERE) from the SUPPORT of 5566 (CLICK HERE) Nifty has reached upto 6038 - Month HEMA. The Charts show major resistance at this juncture. So Taking out 6040 levels at the Month End is the Key for further Upsides. Nifty Had been trading in a tight range for the past two months within Long term Support and Long term Resistances. Breakout on either side would lead to Huge Moves.
June 13, 2012
Analysis for June 13
Intraday Update:
Partbooked at 5135NF. Only 25% longs are remaining with SL EOD close Below 5100NS Day HEMA.
Intraday Update 1.15 PM:
A bearish Bat pattern is almost complete in Bank NIfty.
BEARISH BAT PATTERN:
XA -10645 - 8995
B - 9783 - approx 44.7% retr of XA
C - 9110 - 85.4% retr of AB
Projection for D:
9870 - 113% retr of BC
127% retr of BC - 9965
141.4% - 10061.62
161.8% - 10198.91
The 161.8% retracement - 10198.9 is achieved now. -ve divergence is also exhibited. Caution required in Longs now.
If this level is surpassed and bank Nifty closes above 10200 levels at EOD more upsides will be possible upto the next retracement level of:
200% retr -10456 and
224% - 10617. - For this levels to achieve NIFTY must close above the 100 DMA at EOD.
ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 13:
Nifty has closed well above the Week and Day Hema, and 5 EMA. Holding above the Day HEMA, it is likely to reach upto 100 Dma -5180-90.
The Bullish 5-0 Harmonic pattern (CLICK HERE) is continuing and the initial projection of 161.8% comes to 5174 - near 100 DMA. If resisted at this level, then as per pattern, a 50 % retracement for the rise from 4770 - 5174 approx - 4975 - 5000 levels is to be expected.
If Nifty moves past the 100 DMA, then the next likely resistances are 5200 - ( Refer Weekly Harmonic Chart above) 50% of the retracement of AB surpassing it, then 5300 levels. This corresponds to the 224% retr of the Day chart.
Day Bar chart: A Huge Bullish engulfing candle is formed with a Trendline breakout.
SYNOPSIS: Holding the Day HEMA the upmove would continue upto 5175-95 levels. Surpassing these levels and an EOD close above 100 DMA would lift Nifty to 5275-5300 levels.
Part booking at 5175-90 levels would be a prudent measure.
AGGRESSIVE shorts can be initiated at the same levels with Strict SL of 5205NS. If EOD close is above 100 DMA then the shorts must be terminated and Longs to continue with revised SLof 100 DMA.
Partbooked at 5135NF. Only 25% longs are remaining with SL EOD close Below 5100NS Day HEMA.
Intraday Update 1.15 PM:
A bearish Bat pattern is almost complete in Bank NIfty.
BEARISH BAT PATTERN:
XA -10645 - 8995
B - 9783 - approx 44.7% retr of XA
C - 9110 - 85.4% retr of AB
Projection for D:
9870 - 113% retr of BC
127% retr of BC - 9965
141.4% - 10061.62
161.8% - 10198.91
The 161.8% retracement - 10198.9 is achieved now. -ve divergence is also exhibited. Caution required in Longs now.
If this level is surpassed and bank Nifty closes above 10200 levels at EOD more upsides will be possible upto the next retracement level of:
200% retr -10456 and
224% - 10617. - For this levels to achieve NIFTY must close above the 100 DMA at EOD.
ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 13:
Nifty has closed well above the Week and Day Hema, and 5 EMA. Holding above the Day HEMA, it is likely to reach upto 100 Dma -5180-90.
The Bullish 5-0 Harmonic pattern (CLICK HERE) is continuing and the initial projection of 161.8% comes to 5174 - near 100 DMA. If resisted at this level, then as per pattern, a 50 % retracement for the rise from 4770 - 5174 approx - 4975 - 5000 levels is to be expected.
If Nifty moves past the 100 DMA, then the next likely resistances are 5200 - ( Refer Weekly Harmonic Chart above) 50% of the retracement of AB surpassing it, then 5300 levels. This corresponds to the 224% retr of the Day chart.
Day Bar chart: A Huge Bullish engulfing candle is formed with a Trendline breakout.
SYNOPSIS: Holding the Day HEMA the upmove would continue upto 5175-95 levels. Surpassing these levels and an EOD close above 100 DMA would lift Nifty to 5275-5300 levels.
| Trade Table | ||
| Current pattern | X-A | B(current) |
| 0-5 pattern and Butterfly pattern (week) | 4804 - 5020 | 4770 |
| Trade initiated | SL Day HEMA - 5078 | |
| Bought at 4830NF on june 4 | Proj for C | |
| 113.00% | 5052.00 | |
| 161.80% | 5174.00 | |
| 224.00% | 5330.00 | |
| Partbooked at 5030 NF on june 7 |
Part booking at 5175-90 levels would be a prudent measure.
AGGRESSIVE shorts can be initiated at the same levels with Strict SL of 5205NS. If EOD close is above 100 DMA then the shorts must be terminated and Longs to continue with revised SLof 100 DMA.
| Week Levels | |
| CLOSE | 5068 |
| PIVOT | 4974 |
| HI EMA | 5072 |
| LOW EMA | 4850 |
| 5 EMA | 4986 |
| 10 EMA | 5046 |
| PrevHigh | 5084 |
| Prev Low | 4770 |
| CHECK LIST-DAY | |||
| CLOSE | 5116 | 5 SMA | 5057 |
| PIVOT | 5087 | 5EMA | 4962 |
| HI EMA | 5078 | 10EMA | 5005 |
| LOW EMA | 4986 | 13EMA | 4993 |
| prev HI | 5129 | 20 Hr MA | 5068 |
| prev LOW | 5015 | 50 Hr MA | 4981 |
| 50 DMA | 5086 | 100 Hr MA | 4955 |
| 200 DMA | 5063 | 200 Hr MA | 4954 |
| 100 DMA | 5192 |
January 23, 2012
ANALYSIS FOR JAN 23
Intraday update 3.00 PM:
Holding shorts positionally as the SL was not hit.
Intraday update 1.00 PM:
the low of 5029 exactly tests the lowerline of the rising wedge. Breakdown of the low would be breakdown of rising wedge.
Intraday Update 11.00 Am:
Hour chart with Divergences:
ANALYSIS FOR JAN 23:
Nifty has easily moved past the Day, week and minthly resistance and is trading firmly above all 5 EMA's (monthly/weekly/and Daily) and ablve the week and Day Hema's.
As of now intraday weakness would set in only with a close below the Pivot - 5039 and subsequently the Day Hema of 4995.
The Bearish Bat pattern has given its complete target of 5064 - 224% retr of BC.
The Bearish Shark pattern of the Day TF has reached 94.3% retr @ 5064.
5068 - is the 61.8% retr - GOLDEN RATIO for the leg from 5400 -4531.
B - 4531 - >113% and < 127% retrof XA
Proj for C:
88.6% of AB- 5034
94.43% - 5064 - achieved
113% - 5172
Holding shorts positionally as the SL was not hit.
Intraday update 1.00 PM:
| 23/01/2012 11:00 | 5,053.75 | 5,055.40 | 5,044.30 | 5,051.20 |
| 23/01/2012 12:00 | 5,051.20 | 5,052.45 | 5,032.25 | 5,036.90 |
| 23/01/2012 13:00 | 5,036.90 | 5,047.10 | 5,029.60 | 5,037.80 |
the low of 5029 exactly tests the lowerline of the rising wedge. Breakdown of the low would be breakdown of rising wedge.
Intraday Update 11.00 Am:
Hour chart with Divergences:
Aggressively shorted at 5050NS with SL Hour close above 5065.
ANALYSIS FOR JAN 23:
Nifty has easily moved past the Day, week and minthly resistance and is trading firmly above all 5 EMA's (monthly/weekly/and Daily) and ablve the week and Day Hema's.
As of now intraday weakness would set in only with a close below the Pivot - 5039 and subsequently the Day Hema of 4995.
| Week levels | |
| CLOSE | 5049 |
| PIVOT | 4980 |
| HI EMA | 4939 |
| LOW EMA | 4714 |
| 5 EMA | 4874 |
| 10 EMA | 4876 |
| PrevHigh | 5064 |
| Prev Low | 4827 |
| CHECK LIST-DAY | |||
| CLOSE | 5049 | ||
| PIVOT | 5039 | 10EMA | 4918 |
| HI EMA | 4995 | 13EMA | 4893 |
| LOW EMA | 4941 | 26EMA | 4849 |
| 5EMA | 4980 | prev HI | 5064 |
| 5 SMA | 4973 | prev LOW | 5004 |
| 20 Hr MA | 4843 | 100 DMA | 4938 |
| 50 Hr MA | 4928 | 200 DMA | 5229 |
The Bearish Bat pattern has given its complete target of 5064 - 224% retr of BC.
The Bearish Shark pattern of the Day TF has reached 94.3% retr @ 5064.
5068 - is the 61.8% retr - GOLDEN RATIO for the leg from 5400 -4531.
BEARISH SHARK PATTERN:
OX - 5400 - 4639
A - 5099 - approx 61.8% retr of OXB - 4531 - >113% and < 127% retrof XA
Proj for C:
88.6% of AB- 5034
94.43% - 5064 - achieved
113% - 5172
5172 is the initial taget for the Bearish shark pattern Day TF. Holding above the Day Hema this target is achieveable.
As the previous LONG entry which should have been taken at Day close above 4970 - Month 5EMA was missed - waiting for an oppurtunity to go LONG near the Day HEMA or DAY PIVOT.
| Trade Table | |||
| Current pattern | O-X | A | B |
| Bearish Shark pattern | 5400 - 4639 | 5099 | 4531 |
| Trade initiated | SL Day close below 4990NS | ||
| Buy above 5000-5030 NS | Projections for C | ||
| 88.60% | 5034.00 | ||
| 94.43% | 5067.00 | ||
| 113.00% | 5173.00 | ||
| 127.00% | 5252.00 |
AGGRESSIVE SHORTS CAN BE TAKEN AT 5060NS WITH SL HOUR CLOSE ABOVE 5070NS AND CAN CONVERT TO POSITIONAL IF DAY CLOSES BELOW ITS DAY HEMA - ELSE COULD BOOK PROFITS INTRADAY AT DAY HEMA.
| Retracements | ||
| 5.57% | 5038.43 | |
| 4588 -5065 | 9.02% | 5021.97 |
| 14.60% | 4995.36 |
January 10, 2012
Analysis for Jan 10
Intraday Update 2.00PM:
2.00Pm close is 4833. So terminated the aggressive shorts taken at 4830NF.
INTRADAY UPDATE 11.00am:
Aggressively shorted at 4830NF with SL close above 4830NS.
4828NS is the 113% retr and also it coincides with the Trendline. Further upmove on a close above 4828.NS.
The 4828 levels also corresponds to Week 10 EMA.
2.00Pm close is 4833. So terminated the aggressive shorts taken at 4830NF.
INTRADAY UPDATE 11.00am:
Aggressively shorted at 4830NF with SL close above 4830NS.
4828NS is the 113% retr and also it coincides with the Trendline. Further upmove on a close above 4828.NS.
The 4828 levels also corresponds to Week 10 EMA.
January 3, 2012
Analysis for JAN 3
Intraday Update:
The partbooked Longs was reenteres at the Hourly close above 4730. The SL for this Longs is revised to current Day High EMA @ 4725.
Intraday Update 9.20 AM:
Partbooked at 4703NF - as Day Hema is 4700 NS for Today and for the remaining the SL is shifted to Day Lema of 4630
There are a series of resistances at 4700-4730 NS ranges By way of
Day Hema - 4700, Day 13 EMA-4705, Week 5EMA - 4710, Month LEMA - 4730.
Longs can be added on a close above 4730NS
ANALYSIS for JAN 3:
Nifty Opened on a Positive note and then made a low of 4588 and regained back to close near the open value but above the Day Lema (indicating a pause in downtrend)- Forming a Dragonfly DOJI (CLICK HERE). A Doji usually represents indecisiveness - but the dragonfly Doji is considered to be a bullish reversal candle.
The Bearish Bat pattern (Click Here) is valid till the PRZ is reached. If the Low of 4531 breaks then the Bearish Bat pattern of Hour TF would be invalidated.
The partbooked Longs was reenteres at the Hourly close above 4730. The SL for this Longs is revised to current Day High EMA @ 4725.
Intraday Update 9.20 AM:
Partbooked at 4703NF - as Day Hema is 4700 NS for Today and for the remaining the SL is shifted to Day Lema of 4630
There are a series of resistances at 4700-4730 NS ranges By way of
Day Hema - 4700, Day 13 EMA-4705, Week 5EMA - 4710, Month LEMA - 4730.
Longs can be added on a close above 4730NS
ANALYSIS for JAN 3:
Nifty Opened on a Positive note and then made a low of 4588 and regained back to close near the open value but above the Day Lema (indicating a pause in downtrend)- Forming a Dragonfly DOJI (CLICK HERE). A Doji usually represents indecisiveness - but the dragonfly Doji is considered to be a bullish reversal candle.
The Bearish Bat pattern (Click Here) is valid till the PRZ is reached. If the Low of 4531 breaks then the Bearish Bat pattern of Hour TF would be invalidated.
December 15, 2011
HAS SANTA RALLY STARTED??!!!
Below is the December month Data from the year 2002!!!
Almost every year the Close has been pretty close to the Highs!!!
Will Today's low be the bottom - an Analysis!!!
BEARISH BAT PATTERN:
As per the pattern,
XA - 5400 - 4640
B -5099 - 61.8% retr of XA
C (current) - 4674 - 88.6% retr of AB
Projections for D:
38.2% - 4836
61.8% - 4936
88.6% - 5050.55
113% - 5154
127% - 5213
According to the pattern the ratios expected are,
Considering the above table holding the current value of C at 4672 the targets expected are,
88.6% ratio is achieved - okay - But has it got any major support strong enough for Nifty to Bounce back ??
WEEKLY chart shows a Major trendline support from the previous Lows.
A trendline from the Lows of 2252 and 2555 to today's Low of 4674 provides a good base for a major support.
The Weekly FMACD has given a Positive Divergence.
The Lead indicator 5D in weekly charts has triggered a buy with Positive Divergence.
Now to DAY charts:
Positive Divergence is seen in Day macd charts:
A FALLING WEDGE in Day charts:
ALL the above Charts indicate a Short term bottom.
FACTORS WHICH COULD PREVENT A RALLY AND POSSIBILITIES OF NIFTY MAKING NEW LOWS:
Technical Factors:
1. The fast fall setup formed in Day charts on 9th DEC with the 10EMA, 13EMA and 26EMA
2. Nifty is trading well below the important TA parameters of Day 5EMA, Week Lema and Month Lema.
Events/news likely to affect:
1. Uncertainity in GLOBAL markets.
2. RBI credit policy
Only by closing above the WEEK Lema of 4783 and Day 5EMA of 4798- on DEC 16 - further upward momentum can be gained. Failure to do so would drag Nifty further down and the Break of the Head and Shoulder pattern formed in Day charts (Click Here) with neckline breakdown at 4600-4620, would drag nifty to very deep LOWS!!!
| - | Nifty | Nifty | Nifty | Nifty | Diff betw High | diff betw Low |
| DATE | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | CLOSE | and close | and Close |
| 31.12.02 | 1,050.15 | 1,103.95 | 1,034.10 | 1,093.05 | 10.90 | 58.95 |
| 31.12.03 | 1,615.85 | 1,914.40 | 1,615.70 | 1,879.75 | 34.65 | 264.05 |
| 31.12.04 | 1,960.75 | 2,088.45 | 1,944.50 | 2,080.50 | 7.95 | 136.00 |
| 30.12.05 | 2,651.60 | 2,857.00 | 2,641.95 | 2,836.55 | 20.45 | 194.60 |
| 29.12.06 | 3,955.70 | 4,036.20 | 3,657.65 | 3,966.40 | 69.80 | 308.75 |
| 31-Dec-07 | 5,765.45 | 6,185.40 | 5,676.70 | 6,138.60 | 46.80 | 461.90 |
| 31-Dec-08 | 2,755.15 | 3,110.45 | 2,570.70 | 2,959.15 | 151.30 | 388.45 |
| 31-Dec-09 | 5,059.30 | 5,221.85 | 4,943.95 | 5,201.05 | 20.80 | 257.10 |
| 31-Dec-10 | 5,871.00 | 6,147.30 | 5,721.15 | 6,134.50 | 12.80 | 413.35 |
Almost every year the Close has been pretty close to the Highs!!!
Will Today's low be the bottom - an Analysis!!!
BEARISH BAT PATTERN:
XA - 5400 - 4640
B -5099 - 61.8% retr of XA
C (current) - 4674 - 88.6% retr of AB
Projections for D:
38.2% - 4836
61.8% - 4936
88.6% - 5050.55
113% - 5154
127% - 5213
According to the pattern the ratios expected are,
| B / C / D | B / C / D |
| 0.500/0.886/1.618 | 0.618/0.886/1.270 |
| 0.500/0.886/2.000 | 0.618/0.886/1.414 |
| 0.500/0.886/2.240 | 0.618/0.886/1.618 |
| 0.500/0.886/2.618 |
Considering the above table holding the current value of C at 4672 the targets expected are,
| 127.00% | 5213.75 |
| 141.40% | 5274.95 |
| 161.80% | 5361.65 |
| 200.00% | 5524.00 |
| 224.00% | 5626.00 |
88.6% ratio is achieved - okay - But has it got any major support strong enough for Nifty to Bounce back ??
WEEKLY chart shows a Major trendline support from the previous Lows.
A trendline from the Lows of 2252 and 2555 to today's Low of 4674 provides a good base for a major support.
The Lead indicator 5D in weekly charts has triggered a buy with Positive Divergence.
Now to DAY charts:
Positive Divergence is seen in Day macd charts:
A FALLING WEDGE in Day charts:
ALL the above Charts indicate a Short term bottom.
FACTORS WHICH COULD PREVENT A RALLY AND POSSIBILITIES OF NIFTY MAKING NEW LOWS:
Technical Factors:
1. The fast fall setup formed in Day charts on 9th DEC with the 10EMA, 13EMA and 26EMA
2. Nifty is trading well below the important TA parameters of Day 5EMA, Week Lema and Month Lema.
Events/news likely to affect:
1. Uncertainity in GLOBAL markets.
2. RBI credit policy
Only by closing above the WEEK Lema of 4783 and Day 5EMA of 4798- on DEC 16 - further upward momentum can be gained. Failure to do so would drag Nifty further down and the Break of the Head and Shoulder pattern formed in Day charts (Click Here) with neckline breakdown at 4600-4620, would drag nifty to very deep LOWS!!!