ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 25

NIFTY has closed well above weekly TA parameters of Pivot, 5 EMA and High EMA but closed below the Day HEMA. The TA parameters represent Bullishness - whereas the Patterns developed are Bearish Patterns or rather reversal patterns from Bullishness to Bearishness.

WEEK CHART:

The HANGING MAN PATTERN (CLICK HERE) is a reversal pattern though a follow up price confirmation is required.

DAY CHART :

RISING WEDGE if breaks past the TRENDLINE - then would likely reach the CHANNEL TOP above 5250++. If the RISING WEDGE come to play then there will be a breakdown below 5125 NS and further fall upto 5030-4980 would be imminent. If supported at the Base of the Rising wedge, then it would mve past the Rising wedge above 5175 would move higer breaking past the TRENDLINE  to reach 5250++.

BEARISH CROSS IN DAY CHART WITH BULLISH TA :

In The Golden Crossover 50DMA over 200 DMA -occured earlier - has not yet provided significant upmove as Nifty had closed above 50 DMA only once. Now there is a BEARISH crossover rather the DEath Cross - 50DMA below the 200 DMA but NS has closed both above the 50 and 200 DMA. So the pattern is Bearish But the TA is BULLISH!!

HOUR CHART:

The Hour Moving averages are Bullishly alligned whereas the Pattens formed are bearish. Rising wedge resistance, trendline resistance and resistance at 5190 100 DMA.

5-0 Bullish Harmonic Pattern:

Development of Bullish 5-0 pattern:
XA - 4804 - 5020
B - 4770 - 113% retr of XA
Current C -5190 - 161% retr of AB
Projection for D:
50% -4980
4950-70 - Potential Reversal Zone - PRZ

As per the pattern Nifty must reach 50% retr level of 4980 before crossing the High of 5190.

SYNOPSIS: ONLY WITH A BREAKOUT ABOVE THE TRENDLINE @ 5175 FOLLOWED BY CLOSING ABOVE 5190 100 DMA THE UPTREND WOULD CONTINUE.
SUPPORTS AT 5125-20 RANGES - WEEK HEMA
                          5080 - 5070 - Day LEMA/ Week 10 EMA
RESISTANCES AT 5165 - trendline resistance/Day HEMA
                                 5195 - 100 DMA

Though the TA is BULLISH as the PATTERNS formed are Bearish Coution with Longs at 5180 -5210 levels is very essential.

Week Levels
CLOSE	5146
PIVOT	5126
HI EMA	5128
LOW EMA	4950
5 EMA	5074
10 EMA	5078
PrevHigh	5190
Prev Low	5042

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5146	5 SMA	5120
PIVOT	5133	5EMA	5130
HI EMA	5152	10EMA	5100
LOW EMA	5080	13EMA	5084
prev HI	5160	20 Hr MA	5126
prev LOW	5094	50 Hr MA	5108
50 DMA	5058	100 Hr MA	5063
200 DMA	5073	200 Hr MA	4982
100  DMA	5196
20 DMA	5030

Analysis for June 18

Intraday Update 11.15::
As per earlier view Partbooking was done at 5185 NF and rest was booked out totally at 5100NF. As per the 5-0 BULLISH PATTERN (CLICK HERE), THE 161.8% is complete with a high of 5190 today, and started to fall. If the 200 DMA is held in EOD close and subequently if the coming days close ABOVE 5100, then this upmove might continue till the next higher level of 200% or 224% - 5270 and 5330 respectively.

If the 200 DMA is not held, then further fall will lead upto the 50% retracement level for the upmove from 4770 - 5190 which amounts to 4980.

Development of Bullish 5-0 pattern:XA - 4804 - 5020
B - 4770 - 113% retr of XA
Projection for C:
113%retr of AB - 5052
161.8% retr of AB - 5174 -DONE
Present C -5190 - 161% retr of AB
Projection for D:23.6% - 5090
38.2% - 5029
44.7% - 5002
50% -4980

ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 18:
Nifty opened at 200 DMA and moved up and closed above the Week and Day Pivot and Hema's on Friday exhibiting bullishness.

Currently the 50 DMA - 5072 and 200 DMA - 5067 are poised very close such that it might lead to a good fast rise if Bulishness continues. Else if there is a close below 5100 for two consequtive days the 50 DMA would go below 200 DMA - which is popularly called a Death Cross (CLICK HERE) - a Moving Average of Short term Moving below the Long term Moving average.

	Trade Table
Current pattern	X-A	B(current)
0-5 pattern and Butterfly pattern (week)	4804 - 5020	4770
Trade initiated	SL 200 DMA - 5065NS
Re-entered LONG at 5080NF on june 15	Proj for C
	113.00%	5052.00
	161.80%	5174.00
	224.00%	5330.00
Partbooked at 5030 NF on june 7
Part booked at 5135NF on 13 June
SL triggerred at 5090 NS on june 14

PARTBOOK AT 100 DMA LEVELS - 5190-5200

Week Levels
CLOSE	5139
PIVOT	5100
HI EMA	5097
LOW EMA	4905
5 EMA	5037
10 EMA	5063
PrevHigh	5146
Prev Low	5015

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5139	5 SMA	5097
PIVOT	5118	5EMA	5091
HI EMA	5122	10EMA	5051
LOW EMA	5044	13EMA	5035
prev HI	5146	20 Hr MA	5105
prev LOW	5069	50 Hr MA	5077
50 DMA	5072	100 Hr MA	4996
200 DMA	5067	200 Hr MA	4955
100  DMA	5196