BANK NIFTY HARMONIC PATTERNS

BN is within a narrow range of 18800 - 19050 - and either way breakdown or breakout is all set to give huge moves.

Harmonic pattern Chart:

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_d71772d252b5602a171ffd45d8bf6164.png

BULLISH VIEW:
An EOD close above 19050 - Day channel breakout - would lead BN towards 20000++ as per the ABCD Pattern in the above Chart

BEARISH VIEW:
RESISTING AT 19050 - would drag BN towards 18000 levels as shown in the Bullish Bat Pattern of the above chart .

TRADE PLAN:
Sl for shorts initiated is 19050 SPOT LEVELS. On breakout of 19050 - to be converted to positional longs with 18950 as Sl - which would be the cluster resistance turned support area.

NIFTY ANALYSIS

Monthly chart of Nifty:

 NIFTY DAY BULLISH BAT PATTERN:

BULLISH BAT PATTERN:

XA - 5477 - 6229

B -5936 - 38.6% retr of OX

C - 6134 -  61.8% retr of OA

D - 5697 - 224% retr of AB

 

Channel support at 5690-80 levels.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NIFTY MONTH AND WEEK ANALYSIS

Nifty has made a run from the low of 5477 till 6070.15 - today's high as of now. With the High 6112 -  made in Jan 2013 a Bearish Gartley Harmonic pattern(CLICK HERE)  was complete in Monthly Time Frame. Now a Bullish bat pattern is in the making.

BULLISH BAT PATTERN:

X-A - 4770 - 6112

B - 5447 - 50%  RETR OF XA 5441

C (current) - 6070.15 - approx -88.6% of AB

Proj for D:

38.2% - 5775.36

50% - 5807.75

61.8% - 5703.5

ABCD pattern -HIGHLY BULLISH

If 6112 is crossed decisively then, it becomes an ABCD pattern with vertices,

A -4770

B-6112

C - 5477

&Proj for D:

113% of BC - 6194

127% of BC - 6283

141.4% - 6374

161.8% - 6504

The deciding levels are between 6070 and 6112. Caution with Longs till 6112 is desicively crossed. Positional shorts if taken the stoploss should be strictly maintained at EOD close above 6112. 

WEEKLY CHARTS:

  The weekly charts also exhibits resistance at current levels and the indicator is Highly Over Bought. Caution with Longs till 6112 is taken out decisively.

Intraday Update sept 13

Aggressive Shorts taken at 5445NS/5454NF - with Strict SL 5460NS.

ANALYSIS FOR SEPT 11

Today's Support - 20 DMA/Day HEMA - 5328-5335. An EOD close below this would drag Nifty Down towards Day LEMA/50 DMA - 5280-70.

Now lets see what charts say:

DAY CHARTS:

Analysis for Aug 2

INTRADAY UPDATE BANK NIFTY HOUR CHART RISING WEDGE:

The Upmove in Rising wedge is resited by the TRENDLINE.


Analysis for August 2:
Nifty Closed the July month well above the Month 5 EMA and 20 DMA. While it is trying to defend the 20 DMA, Nifty is struggling hard to breakout above the 61.8% retr level of 5246 too. More upsides possible only on a breakout above 5246. Weak below 20 DMA.

The Rising wedge (CLICK HERE for july 31 chart) seems to have Broken and as per the charts of July 31 (CLICK HERE) - the Alternate 2 seems to be in place till 5246 above 61.8% is taken upward.

The Hour14 RSI and Hour Fmacd charts also exhibit -ve divergences - so breakdown of the rising wedge seems to be a possibility.

Bullish Bat Pattern:

Bullish Bat Pattern:XA - 4770 - 5349
B - 5032 - 50% of XA
C -  5246 - approx 61.8% of AB
Holding C, Proj for D:
38.2% - 5164
50% - 5139
61.8% - 5113
78.6% - 5077
88.6% - 5056

SYNOPSIS: THE SL FOR CURRENT POSITIONAL LONGS TO BE TRAILED TO EOD CLOSE BELOW 5210 - Corresponding to Day HEMA & 20 DMA.

Aggressive sell at current Levels - 5225NS  with Sl above 5250 - Previous High. If EOD close is below 5205 then the shorts are carried over positionally for the last leg D of the Bullish Bat Pattern.



CHECK LIST-DAY CLOSE52415 SMA5162 PIVOT52335EMA5193 HI EMA521010EMA5181 LOW EMA515113EMA5183 prev HI524620 Hr MA5207 prev LOW521350 Hr MA5149 20 DMA5213100 Hr MA5179 100  DMA5153200 Hr MA5212 200 DMA5105

Trade Table Current patternX-AB C (current) BULLISH BAT PATTERN4770-534950325246 Trade initiatedSL EOD close BELOW 5210 BOUGHT AT 5130NF JULY 27Proj for D 38.20%5164.00aprrox 100 DMA 50.00%5139.00Week HEMA 61.80%5113.00approx Mon LEMA 78.60%5077.00month Hema Sell at 5225 NS - aggressively with Sl above 5250 prev high.

Analysis for July 31

Intraday Update 12.30 PM:
RISING WEDGE in BANK NIFTY and NIFTY HOUR CHARTS:

ANALYSIS FOR JULY 31:
Nifty has painted a BULLISH picture with a Close above all Day Parameters - Day Pivot, Hema, 5EMA and LEMA. It was a Channel Breakout today with a GOLDEN CROSOVER - Inching steadily above all Hour - averages and Day 100 DMA to Close just below the 200 Hr MA and 20 DMA. An Hourly Close above the 200 Hr MA above 5205 would be the initial step for the upward momentum to continue.

The above chart clearly shows the Channel breakout with Golden Crossover - 50 SMA over 200 SMA.

Harmonic Pattern:

As per the Continuation of the 5-0 Bullish Pattern (CLICK HERE) - A Highly Bullish picture is seen with targets upto - 5390 - 5450 - 5500, 5600++ levels.

Considering the above chart
ALTERNATE-1 - Continuation of 5-0 Pattern:
Bullish 5-0 pattern:
XA - 4804 - 5020
B - 4770 - 113% retr of XA
Current C - 5349 - approx 224% retr of AB DONE
D - 5032 - 50% retr of BC - DONE
Projection for E:
50%- 5190.5 - DONE
61.8% - 5227.91
88.6% - 5312
113% - 5390
161.8% - 5544

This will fit with the EW scenario -
              Corrective A - 4770 -5349
              B - IF Completed at 5032 (50% of wave A)
              C - min A = 579 points = 5032+579 = 5611

Considering the ALternate -2:
Alternate -2 Development of Bullish Bat Pattern:
XA - 4770 - 5349
B - 5032 - 50% of XA
Proj for C -
50% -5190 - Done
61.8% - 5227
78.6%- 5281
88.6% - 5312

Considering the EW Count- Untill Nifty surpasses the 88.6% retr above 5312 - the above scenario as depicted in chart would Hold good. i.e,

a.B - 5349 - 5032completed at 5032
b.B - 5032 - 52xx - 5312 - yet to be completed 52xx - 5312(currently 50% retr is over)
c.B - 49xx levels.

SYNOPSIS: -CONSIDERING THE BREAKOUT AND BEING THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH AN EOD CLOSE ABOVE THE MONTH 5 EMA - 5175-5180 LEVELS WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO THE NEXT MONTHLY LEVEL OF MONTH HEMA - 5340++ LEVELS.

 HOLD LONGS TRAILING SL TO 100 DMA - 5154 NS.

	Trade Table
Current pattern	X-A	B (CURRENT)
BULLISH BAT PATTERN	4770-5349	5032
Trade initiated	SL EOD close BELOW 5150
BOUGHT AT 5130NF JULY 27	Proj for C
	50.00%	5190 - DONE
	61.80%	5227.00	Week HEMA
	78.60%	5281.00
	88.60%	5312.00	month Hema

A BULLISH GARTLEY PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED IN BANK NIFTY WITH ST TARGETS AT 10550 - 10650++ (CLICK HERE)

Developing Month Levels
CLOSE
PIVOT	5194
HI EMA	5344
LOW EMA	4932
5 EMA	5182
5 SMA	5189
High	5349
LOW	5032

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5200	5 SMA	5116
PIVOT	5179	5EMA	5139
HI EMA	5171	10EMA	5155
LOW EMA	5102	13EMA	5164
prev HI	5207	20 Hr MA	5126
prev LOW	5130	50 Hr MA	5137
20 DMA	5219	100 Hr MA	5190
100  DMA	5154	200 Hr MA	5205
200 DMA	5102