EOD Analysis for july 21

Nifty has closed below all High Ema's , 5 ema's, Pivots and Day Lema exhibiting heavy weakness. Only a minimum of Hourly closing above 5550 Day Lema would possibily give an intraday bounce.

5495-5510 becomes an important support as it is the developing Week Lema and 50 Day SMA. A bounce can be expected from this support upto 5595 levels unless 5495 is broken decisively.

The 5min NF chart shows a Head and Shoulders pattern.

Break below the Neckline with increased Volumes is reqd for the target of the pattern upto 5450-70 which coincides with the Week Lema.

Action Plan for july 22:

Sell below 5550 Day Lema with SL Hourly close above 5560 (10pts from Dlema)
Book out at 5505-10 levels(50 DMA) . Add more shorts when there is an hourly close below 5495 with revised SL 5510 levels (50 DMA)

Buy Above 5555 with SL hourly close below 5550 (day Lema)
Book out at 5580-90 levels(20 SMA). Add Longs above 5610 with revised SL 5580(20 sma)
Buy Above 5505-10 with SL below 5490 (Week Lema) Book out at 5550 Day Lema.

Analysis for July 21

Strength: Nifty has closed above the Week and Day Lema

Weakness: Nifty has closed below all High  Ema.s and 5Ema's. The 5Ema has moved below the 5Sma. Ns has closed below all pivots. A bearish engulfing pattern is formed in Nifty day charts which is to be followed by price action.

Trading above the Day Lema and Pivots would give some intraday strength for a bounce upto 5595-5610 levels. Trading below These levels would render weakness in Nifty

5510 - 5515 50 sma  may provide support for an intraday bounce, closing below which would take NS to 5404 - Month Lema

The Rising wedge pattern has been penetrated downside. NS opening below the Trendline and not creeping into the rising wedge area again would be a bearish scenario. This would also be a price action confirmation for the Bearish Engulging pattern.

Action Plan for the Day:

Sell Below 5556 with SL above 5560 Hourly Closing book partial profits at 5510-15 levels.
Add more shorts below 5500 with revised SL at Hourly closing above 5510

Buy above 5560 with SL hourly closing below 5550. book Profits at 5580-95.
Hold longs only on a firm close above 5610-15 levels

Follow up of Harmonic Patterns

Follow up of Harmonic Patterns:

Hour TF:

 The first Possibility seems to come into play now - as NS got resisted near 100% retr at 5647, and reached near the 61.8% retr at 5557 of the wave 5497-5740. If  Nifty would drift lower than 5551 – then the C would be renamed as per the new low and the targets of D would be changed. Initially NS is likely to find support at 5505-10 levels. If supported, then a retracement  upto 5600 – 5625++ is possible. If broken, then the Hour charts would have to be redrawn replacing C with A as generally C does not move below the Point A.

Day TF:

 The second possibility seems to come into play now, If  NS finds support at 5505-14 levels there are chances of retracing upto the 5600++, or if 5497 breaks then as per Day Bearish Gartley, the targets are

1)      5468- 50% retr of 5740-5197 – coincides with weekly Lema

2)      5404 – 61.8% retr

3)      5325 – 76.4% retr – coincides with Month L ema

In case of breakdown below 5497 – 5450, the EW count can be taken that C has started from 5944 and C.1 at 5197, C.2 @ 5740 and now C.3 has started..

Analysis for July 20

Strength : NS found good support at the 20DMA of 5551 and closed above all 5 EMA's and all pivots. The 5ema is above the 5 Sma.

 

Weakness: Closed below week and Day High Ema's.

 

NS might find minor resistance at weekly High EMA at 5642, and  Day R1 but if taken out decisively the SL for longs taken yesterday could be revised to the same based on hourly closing for intraday.

 

Only A desicive close below 5555 would render NS weak and back to Down trend. 

 

Todays Action Plan:

 

Buy NS above 5625 - day Hema with SL Hourly close below 5590 - breakout point in trendline and below previous high of 5598.

                                  Partbook at 5680 or revise SL to 5645 when it surpasses it.

.

Sell NS below 5625 - Day Hema wih SL Hourly close above 5630. Part book at 5560 and below it add more shorts and again book out near 5500 - 5510 levels - 50 DMA

 

 

 

 

 

Combining Day and Hour TF Harmonic Patterns to Analyse the Movement of NIfty

Combining the DAY Harmonic patterns and the Hour Patterns:

Bullish Crab Pattern:

In the above chart - the Bullish Crab Pattern with XA 5944-5328, the possible targets the pattern could provide are:

I min tgt =  5689 -61.8% retr of CD –

This is below the Point B of the Bearish pattern with XA=5912-5195

So the second target is 76.4% retr of CD = 5775.

Bearish Butterfly pattern:

The bearish butterfly pattern starts with XA = 5912 – 5197.

XA = 5912-5197

B = 5740 = 76.4% retr of XA

Possibility 1. C = 5547 (as of now)

                      Considering the Fact that D finishes above B and not below the Point B, the min target would be 5740 = 100% retr. This almost coincides with the 200 DMA.

Normally as per the Gartley Pattern, D finishes 127% of BC = 5805. This coincides with the Month High EMA.

Possibility 2: Unless NS surpasses B at 5740 to make a D there is always a possibility of  NS making a lower C at 5468, 5404, 5325, 5258 max upto 88.6% retr of AB.To ascertain the value of C (day) the Bearish Gartley formed in Hour TF would be useful:

IN the pattern shown below the AB of the Day pattern at 5740-5497  will be the XA of the Hour Pattern.

In the above Hour TF bearish Gartley Pattern,

XA = 5740 – 5497 = 243 pts.

 B = 5653 =  61.8% retr (5647)

 (current )C = 5551 = 61.8% retr of AB (5556.5)

Possibility 1. With C = 5551, then possible targets for D = min 100% retr = 5653

                       Next target is 127% retr = 5680.

                       Next target is 224% = 5780.

Now going back to the Day TF, the Min Target for D must be greater than 5740. So NS may find resistance at 5680 ( 40 WK SMA) levels, and as per the bearish pattern in Hour TF, would again get back to current low of 5551 or lower and then start a journey upward to complete a target of above 5740 – 5805.

Possibility 2: Next target is 224% = 5780  NS not getting resisted at 5680 but continue its journey up after a small pause or just retracing back upto 5630-40 and reaching the target of 5780 – 5800++.

The target of 5780-5805 coincides with,

1. Month High EMA at 5802
2. Day TF's Bullish Crab Pattern's target of 76.4% retr = 5775-80
3. Completion of Day Bearish Butterfly pattern by reaching a point D above B and also 127% retr of XA = 5805.

 So the Possible target expected with this upmove would be 5800++

Considering EW Possibilities ,

The Wave A ended at 5177

The B wave is divided as ABC at 5944, 5197 and the new High likely to be formed at 5800+ or 5900+.Then the C wave down starts.

Made an attempt to fit all parameters in the analysis. Market is supreme. Must trade with appropriate SL  always and  keep part booking at the possible support and resistance levels.

Analysis for July 19

Strength : 5 Ema is above the 5SMA.
                Found support near 20DMA at 5551
                Closed above all Lema's

Weakness : Closed below all HEma's and all Close Ema's and all Pivots. The rising wedge Line was penetrated downwards today.

Nifty is weak below 5553 which is the 20DMA and Day Lema. Pulling down NS would again scamb;e for support at 5505 50 DMA and below that it would test the WLEMA at 5468

Action Plan for july 19
Buy above 5570 SL hourly closing below 5550 DLEMA and 20 DMA 
Sell below 5555 with Hourly close above 5570 100DMA and above DLEMA


               

Patterns in NS hour

I have taken the Day charts AB as XA in this hour chart so based on this my observations!!

 

XA = 5740-5497 = 243 pts

B= 5653 = approx 61.8% at 5647

C = 5563 (current low)

If this current low holds then the target for D = 5677 which is 127% retr of BC and 76.4%  retr of the original wave XA @ 5683

This is supported by another cup with handle pattern in Hour charts and also the Day Lema and 100 DMA at 5569

 

If the Current low breaks then the target for

   C= 5514 = 88.6% of AB

This is supported by Head andShoulders pattern and 14 rsi turing down. 

 

So based on thse observations I have initiated Long near today mornings low ar 5566NS with a SAR of

a) for intraday SAR of hourly close below 5555 -below DLema

b) Positional SL 5514-10

Analysis for the week july 18

Strength: Nifty has closed at 5581 above week pivot, week 5EMA and above all Lema's. The 5ema has is greater than 5sma.

Weakness: NS has closed below all High EMA's and also below day 5EMA.

 Coming week:
 The above scenario show indecisiveness and Nifty would be range bound till NS closes below the Dlema at 5560 which is also the breakdown point of the Rising Wedge in Daily Charts. Finding supports at these levels would render NS higher upto 5710 which is the breakout point of the trenline connecting all the present Highs and would find resistance at 5800 ++  the upper line of the rising wedge.

Strategy for the week would be
Buy near 5570-80 with a SL of close below 5560NS
Action plan for the Day:
           Buy above 5560 near 5575-5580 levels with SL Hour close below 5555 -day Lema
           Sell below 5555 with SL hourly closing above 5582 prev close and above Dlema