This blog is my trading diary. It is an attempt to organise my analysis and thoughts. I follow the charting methods given in JUST NIFTY blog by Ilango sir and so the charts would have striking resemblance to his charts. I am indebted to Ilango sir for having made this blog possible for me.

June 15, 2012

Analysis for JUNE 15

Intraday Update 11.00AM:

For the past two hours the Low has not breached the 200 DMA and so reentered Longs at 5080NF with SL EOD  close below 200 DMA - 5065.




 Trade Table 
Current patternX-AB(current)
0-5 pattern and Butterfly pattern (week)4804 - 50204770
Trade initiatedSL 200 DMA - 5065NS 
Re-entered LONG at 5080NF on june 15Proj for C 
 113.00%5052.00
 161.80%5174.00
 224.00%5330.00
   
Partbooked at 5030 NF on june 7  
Part booked at 5135NF on 13 June 
SL triggerred at 5090 NS on june 14 


Analysis for Jun 15:
Nifty Got resisted from the Pivot and ended just above the Day LEMA and Day 10 EMA. Holding the Day LEMa and 10 EMA a Bounce is likely. A close above todays developing Week HEMA of 5096 would turn the picture bullish again and Nifty is likely to scale above 5200++. If the Close is below Week HEMA abd Day Hema of 5096-5110 - then again Nifty would be moving in a range between 5009 - 5100 - Corresponding to Week 5EMA and week HEMA.

The yesterday's low of 5054 is being supported by the channel.

Aggressive trade:
Buy at ranges of 5020 - 5035 with SL EOD close below 5000 - corresponding to Week 5 EMA.




Developing Week Levels
CLOSE
PIVOT5072
HI EMA5096
LOW EMA4905
5 EMA5009
10 EMA5047
PrevHigh5145
Prev Low5015



CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE50555 SMA5083
PIVOT50775EMA5067
HI EMA511010EMA5032
LOW EMA503113EMA5018
prev HI513020 Hr MA5096
prev LOW504850 Hr MA5054
50 DMA5077100 Hr MA4985
200 DMA5065200 Hr MA4954
100  DMA5194

June 13, 2012

Analysis for june 14

Intraday update:


An EOD close above 200 DMA is very important for the upmove to continue.

INtraday Update:
Aggressive longs SL trigerred.

Intraday update 12.15 PM:

As per aggressive trade Bought at 5095NF with SL hour close below 5080NS - 50 DMA.



ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 14:

Nifty ended up with a DOJI following a Bullish engulfing candle depicting indecisiveness. It made a High of 5145  approx equal to 44.7% retr of the downmove from 5629 - 4770 (CLICK HERE for WEEK CHART)


HOUR BAR:


Bullish Possibilities:  If the Hour channel provides support at 5100 - Day HEMA then the upmove would continue - This would ensure the completion of BULLISH 5-0 pattern CLICK HERE with min target at 5174 NS - as 161.8% retr is a must for completion of the pattern else the pattern would be rendered invalid.

Bearish possibilities: So for Intraday an Hourly close below 5100 - corresponding to Day HEMA would be the initial onset of weakness to be supported by 50 DMA and 200 DMA at 5082 and 5064 respectively.
An EOD close below 50 DMA/200 DMA would pull Nifty down to below 5000 levels. - This would render the Bullish 5-0 pattern invalid.

SYNOPSIS: HOLDING OF 5100 - DAY HEMA IS THE KEY FACTOR. AN EOD CLOSE BELOW THIS LEVEL WOULD DRAG NIFTY NEAR 5000 LEVELS.


Trade Table
Current patternX-AB(current)
0-5 pattern and Butterfly pattern (week)4804 - 50204770
Trade initiatedSL Day HEMA - 5100
Bought at 4830NF on june 4Proj for C
113.00%5052.00
161.80%5174.00
224.00%5330.00
Partbooked at 5030 NF on june 7
Part booked at 5135NF on 13 June


AGGRESSIVE TRADE: Buy near 5085 - 5100 levels with SL Hourly close below 5080 - 50 DMA.Book out near 5165 - 5175 NS ranges.
The positional Longs would be terminated if EOD close is below 5100 -Day HEMA.


CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE51215 SMA5082
PIVOT51215EMA5074
HI EMA510010EMA5026
LOW EMA502313EMA5012
prev HI514520 Hr MA5096
prev LOW509550 Hr MA5024
50 DMA5082100 Hr MA4973
200 DMA5064200 Hr MA4953
100  DMA5193

Analysis for June 13

Intraday Update:

Partbooked at 5135NF. Only 25% longs are remaining with SL EOD close Below 5100NS Day HEMA.


Intraday Update 1.15 PM:

A bearish Bat pattern is almost complete in Bank NIfty.



BEARISH BAT PATTERN:
XA -10645 - 8995
B - 9783 - approx 44.7% retr of XA
C - 9110 -  85.4% retr of AB
Projection for D:
9870 - 113% retr of BC
127% retr of BC - 9965
141.4% - 10061.62
161.8% - 10198.91


The 161.8% retracement - 10198.9 is achieved now. -ve divergence is also exhibited. Caution required in Longs now.

If this level is surpassed and bank Nifty closes above 10200 levels at EOD more upsides will be possible upto the next retracement level of:

200% retr -10456 and
224% - 10617. - For this levels to achieve NIFTY must close above the 100 DMA at EOD.


ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 13:
Nifty has closed well above the Week and Day Hema, and 5 EMA. Holding above the Day HEMA, it is likely to reach upto 100 Dma -5180-90.

The Bullish 5-0 Harmonic pattern (CLICK HERE)  is continuing and the initial projection of 161.8% comes to 5174 - near 100 DMA. If resisted at this level, then as per pattern, a 50 % retracement for the rise from 4770 - 5174 approx -  4975 - 5000 levels is to be expected.





If Nifty moves past the 100 DMA, then the next likely resistances are 5200 - ( Refer Weekly Harmonic Chart above) 50% of the retracement of AB surpassing it, then 5300 levels. This corresponds to the 224% retr of the Day chart.

Day Bar chart:  A Huge Bullish engulfing candle is formed with a Trendline breakout.


SYNOPSIS: Holding the Day HEMA the upmove would continue upto 5175-95 levels. Surpassing these levels and an EOD close above 100 DMA would lift Nifty to 5275-5300 levels.


Trade Table
Current patternX-AB(current)
0-5 pattern and Butterfly pattern (week)4804 - 50204770
Trade initiatedSL Day HEMA - 5078
Bought at 4830NF on june 4Proj for C
113.00%5052.00
161.80%5174.00
224.00%5330.00
Partbooked at 5030 NF on june 7


Part booking at 5175-90 levels would be a prudent measure.
AGGRESSIVE shorts can be initiated at the same levels with Strict SL of 5205NS. If EOD close is above 100 DMA then the shorts must be terminated and Longs to continue with revised SLof 100 DMA.


Week Levels
CLOSE5068
PIVOT4974
HI EMA5072
LOW EMA4850
5 EMA4986
10 EMA5046
PrevHigh5084
Prev Low4770



CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE51165 SMA5057
PIVOT50875EMA4962
HI EMA507810EMA5005
LOW EMA498613EMA4993
prev HI512920 Hr MA5068
prev LOW501550 Hr MA4981
50 DMA5086100 Hr MA4955
200 DMA5063200 Hr MA4954
100  DMA5192