This blog is my trading diary. It is an attempt to organise my analysis and thoughts. I follow the charting methods given in JUST NIFTY blog by Ilango sir and so the charts would have striking resemblance to his charts. I am indebted to Ilango sir for having made this blog possible for me.

March 23, 2012

ANALYSIS FOR MAR 23

Nifty had a heavy fall and closed below the Day LEMA and Week LEMA. An EOD close above the Day LEMA 5251 will give a pause to this downmove.

Bullish Crab Pattern:


Development of Bullish Crab Pattern.XA - 4531 - 5629
B - 5171 38.2% of XA - 5209 - DONE
C - 5499 - approx 70.7%(5494)- Done
Holding C, Proj for D:
78.6% -5241 - Done
113%- 5128
127% -5082
161.8% - 4968
224%- 4764


The 113% projection of 5128 is very important as it corresponds to the Long term channel Support. A Bounce off this level is likely if the Channel Support is respected.


If the Channel support is broken NS will drop down to the 127% projection 5082 corresponding to 100 DMA and the downward channel support.



To continue within the Contracting triangle NS must trade above 5210. The Channel support comes to 5080 levels.

Hour channel Suports:



CHANNEL SUPPORTS:
5171 - 5164
CHANNEL SUPPORTS:
5080-70


If the channel support is respected at 5171 - then the Bearish Gartley Pattern(Click Here) formed in Hour Charts would continue. Below 5171 it would be a Bearish Shark Pattern.  


Below 5171 - the Pattern would be a Bearish Shark Pattern :
OX - 5629 - 5171
A - 5499 - 70.7% OF OX
with Proj for B as:
113% - 5128
127% -5082.

SYNOPSIS:
TODAY'S TRADING LEVELS:
5210/5171/5128/5082.

Aggressive Sell Below 5210 with Day LEMA as SL.
Aggressive buy at 5171 with Hourly close below 200 DMA @ 5164 as SL
Aggressive BUY at 5128 levels with EOD close below 5082 - 100 DMA as SL.

FOR BANK NIFTY CHARTS CLICK HERE


Week levelsWeek Developing levels
CLOSE5318CLOSE
PIVOT5374PIVOT5269
HI EMA5452HI EMA5425
LOW EMA5248LOW EMA5234
5 EMA53385 EMA5302
5 SMA54015 SMA5334
PrevHigh5499 High5372
Prev Low5305LOW5206



CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE52285 SMA5289
PIVOT52735EMA5295
HI EMA537610EMA5317
LOW EMA525113EMA5324
prev HI538626DEMA5321
prev LOW520620 Hr MA5305
50 DMA5262100 DMA5079
200DMA5164

March 22, 2012

Analysis for Mar 22

Nifty found support at 50 DMA rallied to hit a century and has just closed below the Day HEMA. Strength in upward movement on a close above Day Hema.

There are both Bullish and Bearish Scenarios at work currently.
Bullish Scenario: 5650++ above 5450 - which corresponds to week Hema, current Month HEma and Contracting Triangle Breakout.

Bearish Scenario: Breakdown below 5233- Week LEMA and Contracting triangle breakdown - Initial Support 200 DMA  - Further Breakdown would lead to 4950 (Month LEMA) levels.

Bullish Crab Pattern Day TF:



Development of Bullish Crab Pattern.XA - 4531 - 5629
B - 5171 38.2% of XA - 5209 - DONE
C - 5499 - approx 70.7%(5494)- Done
Holding C(5499), Proj for D:78.6% -5241 - Done
113%- 5128
161.8% - 4968
224%- 4764

 If the Contracting triangle Breaksout above 5450, then the New C would be 5550++
Above 5629 the Pattern would be Bullish Shark Pattern with C above 5650++


 If the Contracting triangle Breaksdown below 5233, then D would be achieved 4950 --.

Factors Supporting BULLISH SCENARIO:

1. DEVELOPMENT OF A BEARISH GARTLEY PATTERN IN HOUR TF:

Bearish Gartley
XA - 5629 - 5171
B - 5499 - 70.7%
C - 5233 - 78.6%
Proj for D - 38.2% - 5334
50% - 5366
61.8% - 5397
78.6% - 5442
88.6% - 5468
113% - 5533

2. Golden crossover of 50DMA over 200 DMA and Nifty has currently taken the support of 50 DMA for the Past three days.



FACTORS SUPPORTING BEARISH VIEW:

1. RISING WEDGE BREAKDOWN BELOW 5233:


  The week Closing must be above the Week HEMA for upmoves to continue. Currently the Week TA is Down as a Close above the HEMA or PIVOT has not yet materialised. The 5D indicator is also down.

2. FAST FALL SET UP WITH 5Day EMA, 10Day EMA AND 13Day EMA's.



Fast fall set upwith 5EMA,10EMA and 13 EMA.
 5 EMA - 5329
10 EMA - 5336
13 EMA - 5340
The Fast fall setup will be negated only on EOD close above 5400.


SYNOPSIS:
TRADING TIME TILL CLOSE ABOVE DAY HEMA - 5371.
Resistances at 5375 - Day HEMA/week Pivot
                       5395 - 200 Hr MA
                       5401 - Month HEMA/Week 5SMA
                       5435 - current month HEMA
                    
Supports at    5336 - 100 Hr MA/Week 5EMA/Day 5EMA
                      5275 - Day LEMA
                      5250 - 50 DMA
                       5160 - 200 DMA             
                                


Week levelsWeek Developing levels
CLOSE5318CLOSE
PIVOT5374PIVOT5324
HI EMA5452HI EMA5425
LOW EMA5248LOW EMA5243
5 EMA53385 EMA5347
5 SMA54015 SMA5361
PrevHigh5499 High5372
Prev Low5305LOW5233



CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE53655 SMA5319
PIVOT53315EMA5329
HI EMA537110EMA5336
LOW EMA527413EMA5340
prev HI537226DEMA5328
prev LOW525650 Hr MA5361
20 DMA5353100 Hr MA5336
50 DMA5252200 Hr MA5393
200DMA5166