Analysis for Nov 16

INTRADAY Update 10.am:

With the Low of 5013 NS the lower channel of the Hour chart has been reached. Owing to OS conditions in Hour/Day charts an Intraday Bounce is likely from here. If it moves past yesterdays Close  and eventually moves near the Pivot of 5090NS, then an Intraday Short can be intiated with SL Hour CLose above 5105 - 200Hr MA.

Positional Buy would be taken from 4990-5000NS with SL Day close below 4980.

NEXT UPDATE EOD


Yesterday longs were taken in anticipation of the wave B to complete by 5085-5120levels and start of wave C - But NS proved it the other way. Seems like more downsides are left.

A SWOT analysis:

STRENGTH : - 1.This can be attributed to the support points - 50DMA is at 5063 and 13WkSMA is at 5036 - possible support points for an Intraday Bounce.
2. The Positive Divergence in 9DRSI and Hr.Fmacd  continues to Hold.

WEAKNESS:
a).  NS Closed below DAY and WEEK pivots and Lema's.
b). All EMA's i.e, 5, 13, & 21 are well below their SMA's - technically indicating weakness.
c) NS closed below the 200Hr MA after 10 OCT 2010.
d) The +ve divergences exhibited in 35D has become invalid.

EOD analysis Day TF takes over Hour TF

The Day TF has taken over the Hour TF. The Bullish developing pattern is as follows:
Bullish Pattern:
XA - 4728 -5400
Projected B:
50% -5064
61.8% - 4985
70.7% - 4924
78.6% - 4872

If NS gains supports at the 50 DMA @ 5060 - 5040 then the prev count will be continued Else the wave count is likely to be altered as the wave c to complete the B will be further subdivided.

Taking the EW wave count w.r.t the Hr. Smacd - the count is altered as given below:

wave a = 5400 -5201
wave b = 5201 -5294
wave c : min = wave a = 5095 - achievedwave c = 161.8% of wave a = 4972 - corresponding to 61.8% of the Bullish developing pattern
subdivisions of wave c:
wave i - 5142
wave ii - 5227 - approx 61.8%
wave iii - approx 1.618 of wave i = 4982

Analysis for Nov 15

EOD analysis:
the 50% retr of XA of the Day TF comes to 5064. Ns has breached these levels to make a low of 5053 and has closed at 5068 - This is below the week Lema Day Lema and week and Day pivots exhibiting weakness.

 Longs were terminated at 3.20pm when NS breached 5060.

Intraday update 2.30PM:
NS has made a low of 5086 corresponding to 161.8% retr of XA of the Bearish shark pattern. It also approximates to the Week Lema. Today's close below this would lead NS to 5030 levels.
If found support at these levels, as per EW count it is likely that the wave B is over and the Wave C would unfold.

Intraday Update 11.30 am:
All hour charts 35D,fmacd,smacd,14RSI charts show +ve divergence. Also theDay RSI chart also shows +ve divergence.

Analysis for Nov 14

Intraday update 10.00 am:

The SL is trailed to a close below 5195 as Day lema is at 5199 and also the weekly pivot is at 5209. A close below DLema would lead to ST weakness.


ANALYSIS FOR NOV 14:

NS made a Low of 5142 corresponding to 161.8% of BC in Bullish Bat Pattern - coinciding with waveC=min wave a as per EW count.