Analysis for Sept 23

Nifty fell with a big thud and is yet to see more downsides. In the Bullish Shark pattern Nifty has reached 100% retr in Day TF and more than 161.8% in Hour TF. Owing to Global conditions Nifty is likely to gap down today also. This might give the levels of 4850-70 which comes to 200% retracement in Hour TF.

The Lead Indicator 14-RSI would help in spotting the reversal.

Intraday update

Intraday Update:12.30 P.M
 The Stoploss for the existing shorts is trailed to a close above 5010 20DMA.

As per hour TF 127% retracement is complete for the wave AB, 5017 - 5170 - which is the first target for C. Similarly 76.4% retr is complete for the wave 4911 to 5169 NS in Day TF. A Bounce could be expected from here and if NS closes today below the DLema at 5051 then  Nifty would show weakness.

Then the next Hour TF retracements levels would be,

127.00%	4975.69
161.80%	4922.45
200.00%	4864.00

The next retracments pertaining to  Day TF are,

61.80%	5009.56
76.40%	4971.89
78.60%	4966.21
85.40%	4948.67
88.60%	4940.41
94.43%	4925.37
127.00%	4841.34

A Buy could be initiated in minimum Qty with SL Week 5MA at 4955. If 4955 is broken on Hourly closing basis then the Longs must be terminated.

Intraday update: 3.00 pm
The long is terminated at 4945.

Analysis for Sept 22

Bullish Pattern has developed.

Analysis for Sept 21

A Bullish shark pattern is developing.

The Short initiated was closed yesterday on an Hour close above 5080 NS. Todays trading plan:

	Trades Initiated
Current pattern	O-X	A	B
Bullish Shark pattern	4978 - 5153	5017	5170
Trade initiated	SL - Hr cl Abv 5175
Shorted Below C at 5160 NF	Retr of AB for C
	38.20%	5111.50
	50.00%	5093.00
	61.80%	5075.00	Book PP
	76.40%	5053.00
	78.60%	5049.00
	88.60%	5034.00
Above 5175- the ranges to trade are 5179,5225

CHECK LIST-DAY NS
CLOSE	5032
PIVOT	5108	5EMA	5075
HI EMA	5105	10EMA	5053
LOW EMA	5013	13EMA	5047
5 SMA	5069	26EMA	5075
20DMA		prev HI	5150
50 DMA		prev LOW	5035
100 DMA
200 DMA

A close Below todays Pivot would lead to more weakness in NS.

Intraday Update 1.30 PM:

38.2% retr of 5017 to 5170 reached at 5113NF. This almost corresponds to DAy Pivot at 5108NS.  Futhere weakness would set in when NF trades below these levels and an Hour closing below 5105 - Day Hema.






   

Analysis for sept 20

Hour Chart Update with 14 -RSI:

In The Day TF and Hour TF charts given on  Sept19  the Hour TF seems to gain momentum. In the  Bullish Crab pattern present - 38.2% retracement for the BC is done at 5046.

The next retr are 61.8%  = 4995 and 78.6 = 4958

The 14 -RSI indicator gives a lead in identifying the reversal points. It seems more downsides are left before it shows a reversal.

ANALYSIS FOR SEPT 19

The important numbers for the week:

CHECK LIST-WEEK
CLOSE	5084
PIVOT	5046
HI EMA	5164
LOW EMA	4917
5 EMA	5054
5 SMA	4955

Important numbers for the Day:

HARMONIC PATTERNS COMBINED WITH TA PARAMETERS

HARMONIC PATTERNS WITH TA PARAMETERS

Harmonic Trading rewards the most during consolidation Days. This article is an attempt to correlate the harmonics with the TA parameters. In Harmonics there are retracements from 38.2% upto 361.8% retracement. To initiate trades and similarly to book out trades one can use the TA parameters along with the Harmonic patterns generated. This holds good for any TF. But one important factor – if one initiates trades based on 5min TF then the booking of targets must fall within the TF. Only at areas when larger TF’s harmonic target seems to be near then it would be prudent to wait along with the prevalent Trend.

 I have taken the past 4 days 5min NF chart i.e. from sept13-sept 16.

CHART -1:

Given below is a 5min NF chart with High’s and low’s marked and trending upwards within two trend lines (cannot be called as channels as it does not appear parallel)..