This blog is my trading diary. It is an attempt to organise my analysis and thoughts. I follow the charting methods given in JUST NIFTY blog by Ilango sir and so the charts would have striking resemblance to his charts. I am indebted to Ilango sir for having made this blog possible for me.

January 13, 2012

Analysis for Jan 13

Intraday Update 2.30 PM:
Nifty Futures made a High of 4917 and the target for Bearish Bat Pattern is almost over. Now as 61.8% retr of 5400 - 5431 is also done at 4899NS, More upsides will be only on Close above 4880 and then the Bearish Shark Pattern of the Day TF would Take over. 

Now retracements of the upmove from 4588 - 4899 must be watched for further pattern development.

NS has resisted exactly at channel top. Missed to watch it earlier. So Terminating the Longs AT COST TO COST.



Intraday Update 2.00 PM:
The SL for Longs is placed at DAy Close below 4860 NS- today's Day HEMA and 50 DMA. Book profits at 4920-30 NS as it is 100 DMA.





Intraday update 12.45 PM:




Intraday update 12.15:
Nifty has gathered support at Day Hema at 4834 so Initiated 50% longs at 4860NF


Intraday Update 11.15 AM:


Todays High -4868 -50 DMA
Today's Low - 4834 -Day Hema.
The range would be resolved by a breakout on either sides. If 50 DMA upsides breakout -then 4932 possible. If it breaks then 4775 - 47NS.



ANALYSIS FOR JAN 13:

Nifty yesterday closed just below the Day Hema and Pivot yesterday - signalling ST weakness.

Week levelsDeveloping levels
CLOSE4754CLOSE
PIVOT4712PIVOT4801
HI EMA4864HI EMA4869
LOW EMA4638LOW EMA4657
5 EMA47485 EMA4776
10 EMA483210 EMA4831
PrevHigh4795 High4877
Prev Low4695LOW4695



Considering the weekly developing levels - Nifty is trading well below the Week 5 EMA and Pivot. Weakness would set in on weekly basis if NS closes below the week 5EMA. Today If 4869 -week HEMA is attempted and could not close above it- which also corresponds to 50 DMA - then there would be a Pause in the upmove.

So as per the weekly levels NS is in trading range between 4800 - 4870.Break of either sides would lead to huge moves.





CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE4831
PIVOT483510EMA4781
HI EMA483813EMA4772
LOW EMA477426EMA4781
5EMA4813prev HI4877
5 SMA4808prev LOW4842
200 Hr MA4770100 DMA4938
100 Hr MA474350 DMA4869
50 Hr MA478320 Hr MA4843



PositionalTrade Table
Current patternX-ABCD(current)
Bearish Bat pattern Hour TF5099-4531480145884877 - 127% of BC
Trade initiated
If 4877 broken upwards then proj for D
141.40%4889.00
161.80%4932.00



If NS trades below 4877 then  projections for downsides
23.60%4808.00
38.20%4766.00
44.70%4748.00


If the Day close is above the Day Hema and subsequently above weekly Pivot then a Positional long could be inititated as upsides are possible.

For Intraday:
Sell Below 4860NS with SL 4880NS - 50 DMA and weekly Hema
Buy above 4830 with Sl 4810NS - Day 5EMA

January 12, 2012

Analysis for Jan 12

The Longs were terminated at 12.00 noon as close was below 4830 as per yesterday's table.


CHECK LIST-DAY      
CLOSE 4861    
PIVOT 4860   10EMA 4770
HI EMA 4823   13EMA 4763
LOW EMA 4759   26EMA 4777
5EMA 4804   prev HI 4877
5 SMA 4791   prev LOW 4842
200 Hr MA4774   100 DMA 4941
100 Hr MA 4736    50 DMA 4879
50 Hr MA 4767             20 DMA 4716



Today Nifty has made a low of 4804 corresponding to the Day 5 EMA.






ST Bullish scenario: A crossover of the 20 & 50 Hr MA over 200 Hr MA. NS has retested the trendline from which the breakout took place at 4804. Supports here would lead to good moves.

Bearish Scenario: Trading well below the 50 DMA.




January 11, 2012

Analysis for Jan 11

Intraday Update 1.15 PM:


In Nifty Hour charts convergence of MAs are present. The 20Hr MA has just crossed over the 200 Hr MA but the 50 Hr MA is fast approaching the 200 Hr MA. If Fast fall develops then huge down moves if crossover happens then huge upmoves. 


If Nifty trades above the 50 DMA @ 4887 and week Hema of 4864 and closes above it then the crossover is likely to take place.


Intraday Update 10.30 AM:

Nifty has made a high of 4864 corresponding to the week Hema - which is also the 38.2% retr from 5400 - 4531. A pause is likely here so Partbooked at 4870NF and Trailing the remaining SL to Close below 4825 Day Pivot.




BEARISH BAT PATTERN:




CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE4850
PIVOT482510EMA4750
HI EMA479613EMA4746
LOW EMA471826EMA4771
5EMA4775prev HI4856
5 SMA4769prev LOW4769
200 Hr MA4775100 DMA4944
100 Hr MA472150 DMA4889
50 Hr MA473320 DMA4711




PositionalTrade Table
Current patternX-ABCD(current)
Bearish Bat pattern Hour TF5099-4531480145884795 - 94.3% of BC
Trade initiatedSL revised to Day close below 4795 Day HEMA
reentered Longs at 4795NF(10 Jan)If 4795 broken upwards then proj for D
113.00%4828.00
127.00%4858.00Achieved
141.40%4889.00Book PP
161.80%4932.00


BOOK PARTIAL PROFITS WHEN NS REACHES 4882-90 AS IT IS 61.8% RETR OF THE LEG 5099 - 4531 CORRESPONDING TO 50 DMA AND TRAIL SL TO 4825 DAY PIVOT


Trade Table
Current patternO-XAB(current)
Bearish Shark pattern5400 - 463950994531
Trade initiated
Projections for C
50.00%4815.00
61.80%4882.00
70.70%4932.00
78.60%4977.00



IMPORTANT TA parameters for projections
127.00%4858.00week HEMA
141.40%4889.0050 DMA
161.80%4932.00100 DMA


January 10, 2012

Analysis for Jan 10

Intraday Update 2.00PM:
2.00Pm close is 4833. So terminated the aggressive shorts taken at 4830NF.


INTRADAY UPDATE 11.00am:

Aggressively shorted at 4830NF with SL close above 4830NS.
4828NS is the 113% retr and also it coincides with the Trendline. Further upmove on a close above 4828.NS.



The 4828 levels also corresponds to Week 10 EMA.

January 9, 2012

ANALYSIS for JAN 9

Nifty gained support at the Day Lema 4680 levels  has closed just above the week 5 EMA and Day 5 EMA - but still below the Day Hema on Friday. A close above the Day Hema would warrant more upmoves upto 4828/58.

Close below the Monthly Lema of 4730 would lead to more downsides 4700/4680/4630 - corresponding to week Pivot/Day Lema/ week Lema. Breach of the week lema would warrant more downsides upto 4550 levels.


Week levels 
CLOSE4754
PIVOT4712
HI EMA4864
LOW EMA4638
5 EMA4748
5 SMA4722
PrevHigh4795
Prev Low4687



CHECK LIST-DAY   
CLOSE4754  
PIVOT474510EMA4724
HI EMA476913EMA4727
LOW EMA469026EMA4766
5EMA4735prev HI4795
5 SMA4731prev LOW4687
20 DMA470950 DMA4916
20 Hr MA4707100 Hr MA4697
200 Hr MA474450 Hr MA4703



PositionalTrade Table   
Current patternX-ABCD(current)
Bearish Bat pattern Hour TF5099-4531480145884795 - 94.3% of BC
Trade initiated    
 Projected downmoves If 4795 broken upwards then proj for D 
 38.20%4715.00113.00%4828.00
 44.70%4702.00127.00%4858.00
 61.80%4667.00  
     
     
Sell Below Hr close 4730 NS with SL Day Hema 4770 for Positional 
Sell Below 4760 NS with SL Hr close above Day Hema 4780  



IMPORTANT TA parameters for projections
38.20%4715.00week Pivot
44.70%4702.0050 Hr MA/100 Hr MA
61.80%4667.00Day Lema