Bank Nifty 5min futures Diamond pattern:
Breakout above 8570-90 BNF. Breakdown below todays low of 8431.
December 16, 2011
ANALYSIS FOR DEC 16
DIAmond pattern update:
Bank Nifty 5min futures Diamond pattern:
Breakout above 8570-90 BNF. Breakdown below todays low of 8431.
Bank Nifty 5min futures Diamond pattern:
Breakout above 8570-90 BNF. Breakdown below todays low of 8431.
December 15, 2011
HAS SANTA RALLY STARTED??!!!
Below is the December month Data from the year 2002!!!
Almost every year the Close has been pretty close to the Highs!!!
Will Today's low be the bottom - an Analysis!!!
BEARISH BAT PATTERN:
As per the pattern,
XA - 5400 - 4640
B -5099 - 61.8% retr of XA
C (current) - 4674 - 88.6% retr of AB
Projections for D:
38.2% - 4836
61.8% - 4936
88.6% - 5050.55
113% - 5154
127% - 5213
According to the pattern the ratios expected are,
Considering the above table holding the current value of C at 4672 the targets expected are,
88.6% ratio is achieved - okay - But has it got any major support strong enough for Nifty to Bounce back ??
WEEKLY chart shows a Major trendline support from the previous Lows.
A trendline from the Lows of 2252 and 2555 to today's Low of 4674 provides a good base for a major support.
The Weekly FMACD has given a Positive Divergence.
The Lead indicator 5D in weekly charts has triggered a buy with Positive Divergence.
Now to DAY charts:
Positive Divergence is seen in Day macd charts:
A FALLING WEDGE in Day charts:
ALL the above Charts indicate a Short term bottom.
FACTORS WHICH COULD PREVENT A RALLY AND POSSIBILITIES OF NIFTY MAKING NEW LOWS:
Technical Factors:
1. The fast fall setup formed in Day charts on 9th DEC with the 10EMA, 13EMA and 26EMA
2. Nifty is trading well below the important TA parameters of Day 5EMA, Week Lema and Month Lema.
Events/news likely to affect:
1. Uncertainity in GLOBAL markets.
2. RBI credit policy
Only by closing above the WEEK Lema of 4783 and Day 5EMA of 4798- on DEC 16 - further upward momentum can be gained. Failure to do so would drag Nifty further down and the Break of the Head and Shoulder pattern formed in Day charts (Click Here) with neckline breakdown at 4600-4620, would drag nifty to very deep LOWS!!!
| - | Nifty | Nifty | Nifty | Nifty | Diff betw High | diff betw Low |
| DATE | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | CLOSE | and close | and Close |
| 31.12.02 | 1,050.15 | 1,103.95 | 1,034.10 | 1,093.05 | 10.90 | 58.95 |
| 31.12.03 | 1,615.85 | 1,914.40 | 1,615.70 | 1,879.75 | 34.65 | 264.05 |
| 31.12.04 | 1,960.75 | 2,088.45 | 1,944.50 | 2,080.50 | 7.95 | 136.00 |
| 30.12.05 | 2,651.60 | 2,857.00 | 2,641.95 | 2,836.55 | 20.45 | 194.60 |
| 29.12.06 | 3,955.70 | 4,036.20 | 3,657.65 | 3,966.40 | 69.80 | 308.75 |
| 31-Dec-07 | 5,765.45 | 6,185.40 | 5,676.70 | 6,138.60 | 46.80 | 461.90 |
| 31-Dec-08 | 2,755.15 | 3,110.45 | 2,570.70 | 2,959.15 | 151.30 | 388.45 |
| 31-Dec-09 | 5,059.30 | 5,221.85 | 4,943.95 | 5,201.05 | 20.80 | 257.10 |
| 31-Dec-10 | 5,871.00 | 6,147.30 | 5,721.15 | 6,134.50 | 12.80 | 413.35 |
Almost every year the Close has been pretty close to the Highs!!!
Will Today's low be the bottom - an Analysis!!!
BEARISH BAT PATTERN:
XA - 5400 - 4640
B -5099 - 61.8% retr of XA
C (current) - 4674 - 88.6% retr of AB
Projections for D:
38.2% - 4836
61.8% - 4936
88.6% - 5050.55
113% - 5154
127% - 5213
According to the pattern the ratios expected are,
| B / C / D | B / C / D |
| 0.500/0.886/1.618 | 0.618/0.886/1.270 |
| 0.500/0.886/2.000 | 0.618/0.886/1.414 |
| 0.500/0.886/2.240 | 0.618/0.886/1.618 |
| 0.500/0.886/2.618 |
Considering the above table holding the current value of C at 4672 the targets expected are,
| 127.00% | 5213.75 |
| 141.40% | 5274.95 |
| 161.80% | 5361.65 |
| 200.00% | 5524.00 |
| 224.00% | 5626.00 |
88.6% ratio is achieved - okay - But has it got any major support strong enough for Nifty to Bounce back ??
WEEKLY chart shows a Major trendline support from the previous Lows.
A trendline from the Lows of 2252 and 2555 to today's Low of 4674 provides a good base for a major support.
The Lead indicator 5D in weekly charts has triggered a buy with Positive Divergence.
Now to DAY charts:
Positive Divergence is seen in Day macd charts:
A FALLING WEDGE in Day charts:
ALL the above Charts indicate a Short term bottom.
FACTORS WHICH COULD PREVENT A RALLY AND POSSIBILITIES OF NIFTY MAKING NEW LOWS:
Technical Factors:
1. The fast fall setup formed in Day charts on 9th DEC with the 10EMA, 13EMA and 26EMA
2. Nifty is trading well below the important TA parameters of Day 5EMA, Week Lema and Month Lema.
Events/news likely to affect:
1. Uncertainity in GLOBAL markets.
2. RBI credit policy
Only by closing above the WEEK Lema of 4783 and Day 5EMA of 4798- on DEC 16 - further upward momentum can be gained. Failure to do so would drag Nifty further down and the Break of the Head and Shoulder pattern formed in Day charts (Click Here) with neckline breakdown at 4600-4620, would drag nifty to very deep LOWS!!!
ANALYSIS FOR DEC 15
Intraday Update :
Booked the shorts at 4690NF.
Nifty could not surpass the week Hema and Month Lema at 4838 -4833 - Made a high of 4840 and dropped down upto 4750 to close below the Day pivot and Lema - indicating more weakness. Strength would regain trading above Pivot at 4785.
The Bearish Pattern update:
Booked the shorts at 4690NF.
Nifty could not surpass the week Hema and Month Lema at 4838 -4833 - Made a high of 4840 and dropped down upto 4750 to close below the Day pivot and Lema - indicating more weakness. Strength would regain trading above Pivot at 4785.
The Bearish Pattern update:
FAST FALL SET UP
FAST FALL:
When the moving averages converge the smaller moving averages and the higher moving averages tend to fall in an order.
When the order of higher moving average to the lower moving average is in a descending manner then the probability of fast fall is very high and the invalidation point will be the smaller moving above the larger moving average and subsequently say in this eg - BNF trading above the highest Moving average.
FAST fall in Nifty Spot Hour:
In the above chart the 20Hour MA was moving towards the 200 MA but could not move past it which resulted in a fast fall.
Consider the below table.:
From 5035 the 20 MA tried to reach the 200 MA at 5044. Then the 20 MA was 5041.15 and the 200 MA was 5043. the 20 MA could not surpass the 200 MA which resulted in fast fall.
When the moving averages converge the smaller moving averages and the higher moving averages tend to fall in an order.
When the order of higher moving average to the lower moving average is in a descending manner then the probability of fast fall is very high and the invalidation point will be the smaller moving above the larger moving average and subsequently say in this eg - BNF trading above the highest Moving average.
FAST fall in Nifty Spot Hour:
In the above chart the 20Hour MA was moving towards the 200 MA but could not move past it which resulted in a fast fall.
Consider the below table.:
| DATE/TIME | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | CLOSE | 20 | 200 |
| 05/12/2011 10:00 | 5,036.50 | 5,049.45 | 5,017.80 | 5,022.45 | 4,933.57 | 5,046 |
| 05/12/2011 11:00 | 5,022.55 | 5,032.75 | 5,015.05 | 5,024.25 | 4,945.37 | 5,045 |
| 05/12/2011 12:00 | 5,024.60 | 5,029.75 | 5,002.55 | 5,012.15 | 4,955.31 | 5,045 |
| 05/12/2011 13:00 | 5,012.25 | 5,047.10 | 5,012.05 | 5,042.80 | 4,965.50 | 5,044 |
| 05/12/2011 14:00 | 5,042.75 | 5,055.20 | 5,013.40 | 5,019.55 | 4,975.67 | 5,044 |
| 05/12/2011 15:00 | 5,019.65 | 5,050.25 | 5,019.45 | 5,034.85 | 4,985.81 | 5,044 |
| 05/12/2011 16:00 | 5,035.15 | 5,045.75 | 5,032.85 | 5,039.15 | 4,989.22 | 5,044 |
| 07/12/2011 10:00 | 5,050.10 | 5,097.10 | 5,032.65 | 5,091.50 | 4,995.90 | 5,044 |
| 07/12/2011 11:00 | 5,091.50 | 5,091.85 | 5,078.50 | 5,088.10 | 5,002.32 | 5,044 |
| 07/12/2011 12:00 | 5,088.00 | 5,091.35 | 5,054.60 | 5,065.05 | 5,006.99 | 5,044 |
| 07/12/2011 13:00 | 5,065.25 | 5,087.95 | 5,060.20 | 5,081.35 | 5,013.95 | 5,044 |
| 07/12/2011 14:00 | 5,081.50 | 5,099.20 | 5,066.10 | 5,093.90 | 5,022.08 | 5,044 |
| 07/12/2011 15:00 | 5,093.75 | 5,099.05 | 5,068.20 | 5,072.10 | 5,028.84 | 5,044 |
| 07/12/2011 16:00 | 5,072.20 | 5,078.95 | 5,044.25 | 5,062.60 | 5,035.32 | 5,044 |
| 08/12/2011 10:00 | 5,037.40 | 5,048.90 | 5,027.75 | 5,029.85 | 5,039.75 | 5,043 |
| 08/12/2011 11:00 | 5,029.85 | 5,032.70 | 4,979.95 | 4,982.45 | 5,041.15 | 5,043 |
| 08/12/2011 12:00 | 4,982.55 | 4,987.50 | 4,939.00 | 4,967.95 | 5,041.15 | 5,043 |
| 08/12/2011 13:00 | 4,967.75 | 4,971.20 | 4,955.20 | 4,967.05 | 5,038.77 | 5,042 |
| 08/12/2011 14:00 | 4,967.25 | 4,985.55 | 4,942.85 | 4,961.15 | 5,035.42 | 5,041 |
| 08/12/2011 15:00 | 4,960.75 | 4,965.30 | 4,926.40 | 4,932.00 | 5,029.51 | 5,040 |
| 08/12/2011 16:00 | 4,932.10 | 4,963.85 | 4,921.65 | 4,943.65 | 5,025.57 | 5,039 |
| 09/12/2011 10:00 | 4,870.75 | 4,901.90 | 4,843.85 | 4,901.35 | 5,019.43 | 5,038 |
| 09/12/2011 11:00 | 4,901.45 | 4,901.70 | 4,864.70 | 4,879.50 | 5,012.80 | 5,037 |
From 5035 the 20 MA tried to reach the 200 MA at 5044. Then the 20 MA was 5041.15 and the 200 MA was 5043. the 20 MA could not surpass the 200 MA which resulted in fast fall.