August 3, 2012
Analysis for Aug 3
Nifty defended the 20 DMA yesterday but today at opening it opened below the 20 DMA - indicating weakness. Todays close below 5220 would set the way for further down moves.
The weekly charts clearly shows the formation of Contracting Triangle. Today being the weekend - Closing above the week 5EMA at 5191 is the minimum requirement for some more upsides.
Nifty Day Charts seems to be Highly Overbought and ready for correction. A close above 20 DMA/Day HEMA at 5220 is a must for more upsides. Hence correction is imminent to follow.
Harmonic pattern Chart: (REFER AUG2 WRITE-UP)
Harmonic pattern Chart: (REFER AUG2 WRITE-UP)
| Trade Table | |||
| Current pattern | X-A | B | C (current) |
| BULLISH BAT PATTERN | 4770-5349 | 5032 | 5246 |
| Trade initiated | SL EOD close above 5220 | ||
| SOLD at 5210NF on 3AUG | Proj for D | ||
| 38.20% | 5164.00 | aprrox 100 DMA & 10 DMA | |
| 50.00% | 5139.00 | 50 DMA | |
| 61.80% | 5113.00 | week LEMA | |
| 78.60% | 5077.00 | ||
| at today's opening the Longs were closed at 5220NF and shorts were taken | |||
| Developing Week Levels | |
| CLOSE | |
| PIVOT | 5201 |
| HI EMA | 5337 |
| LOW EMA | 5114 |
| 5 EMA | 5191 |
| 5 SMA | 5215 |
| 10 EMA | 5172 |
| PrevHigh | 5164 |
| Prev Low | 5032 |
| CHECK LIST-DAY | |||
| CLOSE | 5228 | 5 SMA | 5199 |
| PIVOT | 5225 | 5EMA | 5204 |
| HI EMA | 5219 | 10EMA | 5190 |
| LOW EMA | 5170 | 13EMA | 5189 |
| prev HI | 5237 | 50 Hr MA | 5161 |
| prev LOW | 5210 | 100 Hr MA | 5177 |
| 20 DMA | 5208 | 200 Hr MA | 5214 |
| 100 DMA | 5151 | ||
| 200 DMA | 5105 |
August 2, 2012
Analysis for Aug 2
INTRADAY UPDATE BANK NIFTY HOUR CHART RISING WEDGE:
The Upmove in Rising wedge is resited by the TRENDLINE.
Analysis for August 2:
Nifty Closed the July month well above the Month 5 EMA and 20 DMA. While it is trying to defend the 20 DMA, Nifty is struggling hard to breakout above the 61.8% retr level of 5246 too. More upsides possible only on a breakout above 5246. Weak below 20 DMA.
The Rising wedge (CLICK HERE for july 31 chart) seems to have Broken and as per the charts of July 31 (CLICK HERE) - the Alternate 2 seems to be in place till 5246 above 61.8% is taken upward.
The Hour14 RSI and Hour Fmacd charts also exhibit -ve divergences - so breakdown of the rising wedge seems to be a possibility.
Bullish Bat Pattern:
Bullish Bat Pattern:XA - 4770 - 5349
B - 5032 - 50% of XA
C - 5246 - approx 61.8% of AB
Holding C, Proj for D:
38.2% - 5164
50% - 5139
61.8% - 5113
78.6% - 5077
88.6% - 5056
SYNOPSIS: THE SL FOR CURRENT POSITIONAL LONGS TO BE TRAILED TO EOD CLOSE BELOW 5210 - Corresponding to Day HEMA & 20 DMA.
Aggressive sell at current Levels - 5225NS with Sl above 5250 - Previous High. If EOD close is below 5205 then the shorts are carried over positionally for the last leg D of the Bullish Bat Pattern.
CHECK LIST-DAY CLOSE 5241 5 SMA 5162 PIVOT 5233 5EMA 5193 HI EMA 5210 10EMA 5181 LOW EMA 5151 13EMA 5183 prev HI 5246 20 Hr MA 5207 prev LOW 5213 50 Hr MA 5149 20 DMA 5213 100 Hr MA 5179 100 DMA 5153 200 Hr MA 5212 200 DMA 5105
Trade Table Current pattern X-A B C (current) BULLISH BAT PATTERN 4770-5349 5032 5246 Trade initiated SL EOD close BELOW 5210 BOUGHT AT 5130NF JULY 27 Proj for D 38.20% 5164.00 aprrox 100 DMA 50.00% 5139.00 Week HEMA 61.80% 5113.00 approx Mon LEMA 78.60% 5077.00 month Hema Sell at 5225 NS - aggressively with Sl above 5250 prev high.
The Upmove in Rising wedge is resited by the TRENDLINE.
Analysis for August 2:
Nifty Closed the July month well above the Month 5 EMA and 20 DMA. While it is trying to defend the 20 DMA, Nifty is struggling hard to breakout above the 61.8% retr level of 5246 too. More upsides possible only on a breakout above 5246. Weak below 20 DMA.
The Rising wedge (CLICK HERE for july 31 chart) seems to have Broken and as per the charts of July 31 (CLICK HERE) - the Alternate 2 seems to be in place till 5246 above 61.8% is taken upward.
The Hour14 RSI and Hour Fmacd charts also exhibit -ve divergences - so breakdown of the rising wedge seems to be a possibility.
Bullish Bat Pattern:
Bullish Bat Pattern:XA - 4770 - 5349
B - 5032 - 50% of XA
C - 5246 - approx 61.8% of AB
Holding C, Proj for D:
38.2% - 5164
50% - 5139
61.8% - 5113
78.6% - 5077
88.6% - 5056
SYNOPSIS: THE SL FOR CURRENT POSITIONAL LONGS TO BE TRAILED TO EOD CLOSE BELOW 5210 - Corresponding to Day HEMA & 20 DMA.
Aggressive sell at current Levels - 5225NS with Sl above 5250 - Previous High. If EOD close is below 5205 then the shorts are carried over positionally for the last leg D of the Bullish Bat Pattern.
July 30, 2012
Analysis for July 31
Intraday Update 12.30 PM:
RISING WEDGE in BANK NIFTY and NIFTY HOUR CHARTS:
ANALYSIS FOR JULY 31:
Nifty has painted a BULLISH picture with a Close above all Day Parameters - Day Pivot, Hema, 5EMA and LEMA. It was a Channel Breakout today with a GOLDEN CROSOVER - Inching steadily above all Hour - averages and Day 100 DMA to Close just below the 200 Hr MA and 20 DMA. An Hourly Close above the 200 Hr MA above 5205 would be the initial step for the upward momentum to continue.
The above chart clearly shows the Channel breakout with Golden Crossover - 50 SMA over 200 SMA.
Harmonic Pattern:
As per the Continuation of the 5-0 Bullish Pattern (CLICK HERE) - A Highly Bullish picture is seen with targets upto - 5390 - 5450 - 5500, 5600++ levels.
Considering the above chart
ALTERNATE-1 - Continuation of 5-0 Pattern:
Bullish 5-0 pattern:
XA - 4804 - 5020
B - 4770 - 113% retr of XA
Current C - 5349 - approx 224% retr of AB DONE
D - 5032 - 50% retr of BC - DONE
Projection for E:
50%- 5190.5 - DONE
61.8% - 5227.91
88.6% - 5312
113% - 5390
161.8% - 5544
This will fit with the EW scenario -
Corrective A - 4770 -5349
B - IF Completed at 5032 (50% of wave A)
C - min A = 579 points = 5032+579 = 5611
Considering the ALternate -2:
Alternate -2 Development of Bullish Bat Pattern:
XA - 4770 - 5349
B - 5032 - 50% of XA
Proj for C -
50% -5190 - Done
61.8% - 5227
78.6%- 5281
88.6% - 5312
Considering the EW Count- Untill Nifty surpasses the 88.6% retr above 5312 - the above scenario as depicted in chart would Hold good. i.e,
a.B - 5349 - 5032completed at 5032
b.B - 5032 - 52xx - 5312 - yet to be completed 52xx - 5312(currently 50% retr is over)
c.B - 49xx levels.
SYNOPSIS: -CONSIDERING THE BREAKOUT AND BEING THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH AN EOD CLOSE ABOVE THE MONTH 5 EMA - 5175-5180 LEVELS WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO THE NEXT MONTHLY LEVEL OF MONTH HEMA - 5340++ LEVELS.
HOLD LONGS TRAILING SL TO 100 DMA - 5154 NS.
A BULLISH GARTLEY PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED IN BANK NIFTY WITH ST TARGETS AT 10550 - 10650++ (CLICK HERE)
RISING WEDGE in BANK NIFTY and NIFTY HOUR CHARTS:
ANALYSIS FOR JULY 31:
Nifty has painted a BULLISH picture with a Close above all Day Parameters - Day Pivot, Hema, 5EMA and LEMA. It was a Channel Breakout today with a GOLDEN CROSOVER - Inching steadily above all Hour - averages and Day 100 DMA to Close just below the 200 Hr MA and 20 DMA. An Hourly Close above the 200 Hr MA above 5205 would be the initial step for the upward momentum to continue.
The above chart clearly shows the Channel breakout with Golden Crossover - 50 SMA over 200 SMA.
Harmonic Pattern:
As per the Continuation of the 5-0 Bullish Pattern (CLICK HERE) - A Highly Bullish picture is seen with targets upto - 5390 - 5450 - 5500, 5600++ levels.
Considering the above chart
ALTERNATE-1 - Continuation of 5-0 Pattern:
Bullish 5-0 pattern:
XA - 4804 - 5020
B - 4770 - 113% retr of XA
Current C - 5349 - approx 224% retr of AB DONE
D - 5032 - 50% retr of BC - DONE
Projection for E:
50%- 5190.5 - DONE
61.8% - 5227.91
88.6% - 5312
113% - 5390
161.8% - 5544
This will fit with the EW scenario -
Corrective A - 4770 -5349
B - IF Completed at 5032 (50% of wave A)
C - min A = 579 points = 5032+579 = 5611
Considering the ALternate -2:
Alternate -2 Development of Bullish Bat Pattern:
XA - 4770 - 5349
B - 5032 - 50% of XA
Proj for C -
50% -5190 - Done
61.8% - 5227
78.6%- 5281
88.6% - 5312
Considering the EW Count- Untill Nifty surpasses the 88.6% retr above 5312 - the above scenario as depicted in chart would Hold good. i.e,
a.B - 5349 - 5032completed at 5032
b.B - 5032 - 52xx - 5312 - yet to be completed 52xx - 5312(currently 50% retr is over)
c.B - 49xx levels.
SYNOPSIS: -CONSIDERING THE BREAKOUT AND BEING THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH AN EOD CLOSE ABOVE THE MONTH 5 EMA - 5175-5180 LEVELS WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO THE NEXT MONTHLY LEVEL OF MONTH HEMA - 5340++ LEVELS.
HOLD LONGS TRAILING SL TO 100 DMA - 5154 NS.
| Trade Table | |||
| Current pattern | X-A | B (CURRENT) | |
| BULLISH BAT PATTERN | 4770-5349 | 5032 | |
| Trade initiated | SL EOD close BELOW 5150 | ||
| BOUGHT AT 5130NF JULY 27 | Proj for C | ||
| 50.00% | 5190 - DONE | ||
| 61.80% | 5227.00 | Week HEMA | |
| 78.60% | 5281.00 | ||
| 88.60% | 5312.00 | month Hema |
A BULLISH GARTLEY PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED IN BANK NIFTY WITH ST TARGETS AT 10550 - 10650++ (CLICK HERE)
| Developing Month Levels | |
| CLOSE | |
| PIVOT | 5194 |
| HI EMA | 5344 |
| LOW EMA | 4932 |
| 5 EMA | 5182 |
| 5 SMA | 5189 |
| High | 5349 |
| LOW | 5032 |
| CHECK LIST-DAY | |||
| CLOSE | 5200 | 5 SMA | 5116 |
| PIVOT | 5179 | 5EMA | 5139 |
| HI EMA | 5171 | 10EMA | 5155 |
| LOW EMA | 5102 | 13EMA | 5164 |
| prev HI | 5207 | 20 Hr MA | 5126 |
| prev LOW | 5130 | 50 Hr MA | 5137 |
| 20 DMA | 5219 | 100 Hr MA | 5190 |
| 100 DMA | 5154 | 200 Hr MA | 5205 |
| 200 DMA | 5102 |