Analysis for sept 30

Nifty found support at Day Low EMA @4900 and gave a huge bounce to reach a High of 5032. This is the 127% retracement of the leg 5006 - 4908 , 20DMA and also the Sept Month Lema. Being the Month close and weekly close the important Month/ Week Levels for sept 30 are:

Week levels		developing levels	Month levels		developing levels
CLOSE	4868		CLOSE	5001
PIVOT	4955	4936	PIVOT	5091	4981
HI EMA	5165	5122	HI EMA	5704	5526
LOW EMA	4888	4845	LOW EMA	5167	5031
5 EMA	4992	5000	3 EMA	5282	5148
5 SMA	4960	5013	3 SMA	5376	5166



Intraday Update for Sept 29

Both bearish and bullish possibilities are present currently. For the Bullish possibility :

Sell below Day Hema of 4980 with SL of 5010 (A of XA)

For bearish pattern formation Buy above 4985 with SL Hour close below 4980 Day Hema. The Developing month pivot id 4966. With only one more day to go for a month a close below 4960 would be a valid Stoploss positionally.

Considering the nature of the upmove and DayTF a Buy is initiated in small quantities at this level and would add to it if 4960 is not breached on closing basis.

Buy at 4984NS with a SL of 4960NS closing basis.

The Bullish Gartley got invalidated with a high above 5006. Part booked at 5030 NS as 127% retr is reached. Holding the rest of the longs with revised SL to 4980



Analysis for sept 29

Stop loss for positional shorts is hour close above 4960.

Important Parameters for the day:

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	4946
PIVOT	4957	5EMA	4946
HI EMA	4994	10EMA	4971
LOW EMA	4900	13EMA	4981
5 SMA	4946	26EMA	5026
20DMA	5029	prev HI	5006
50 DMA	5157	prev LOW	4918
50Hr MA	4976
100Hr MA	5003

Trade Table:

	Trades Initiated
Current pattern	X - A	B
Developing Bearish Gartley Pattern	5169 - 4758	5006
Trade initiated	SL Hr close abv 4955(Day Pvt, Week Pvt)
Sold at 4935NF	Retr of AB for C (NS)
	38.20%	4911.26
	50.00%	4882.00	Book PP
	61.80%	4852.74	Book Profits
	70.70%	4830.70
	78.60%	4811.07
	88.60%	4786.27
when Hour closes blw DLema - trail SL to Day Lema.

Important TA parameters for retracements
Day Lema	38.20%	4911.26
Week Lema	50.00%	4882.00
Developing Week Lema	61.80%	4852.74
Price clusters	78.60%	4811.07

Intraday Update :10 am



T

The decending triangle would decide the move  would be on which side.

From a larger perspective the descending triangle looks more like a pennant which is a contiuation pattern. Would this behave as pennant or descending traingle with fast fall set up???

 Refer http://thepatternsite.com/pennants.html for details about pennants.

Intraday Update 12.00noon:

NS has found good support at 4900 Day lema levels and has reached the week pivot of  4950. The shorts are terminated at these levels.

The 4900 levels corresponds to the 38.2% retracement of Hour TF and the 127% retr of Bullish crab formed in 5minTF.

Analysis for Sept 28

Nifty opened on sept 27 near the Day Lema and Week Lema(4888)  providing a good entry point for Longs. It rallied almost upto Day Hema and closed just below it. Gap up might be possible and the 61.8% retr may be reached initially at 5012 levels.

This is another good entry point with the Day hema at 4988 and a SL can be trailed to a close below 4980.



Analysis for Sept 27 - Day TF shows its power.

Yesterday the Day TF showed its power when compared to Hour TF. As per DAy TF a 161.8% retr was done at 4758 NF. From there there was a good intraday rally upto the prev close at 4868.

SL was triggered for the Longs held yesterday and also for the shorts initiated yesterday. Now a new trade is to be initiated.

In the Day TF the Bullish pattern has given a retracement of 161.8% at 4758 and also the C of the Bearish pattern (refer Current Bullish Bearish Scenario ) has also come to a retracement of 88.6% at 4758. So this must have been a point to initiate longs which was not done yesterday.



Hour chart update:

Important TA parameters:



CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	4835
PIVOT	4825	5EMA	4932
HI EMA	4991	10EMA	4978
LOW EMA	4883	13EMA	4990
5 SMA	4980	26EMA	5037
20DMA	5016	prev HI	4880
50 DMA	5198	prev LOW	4759
50Hr MA	5040
100Hr MA	5038

Trade Table:

	Trades Initiated
Current pattern	O-X	A	B	C
Bullish Shark pattern 161.8% in Day TF	4978 - 5169	4911	5170	4758
Trade initiated
No trades	Retr of BC
	38.20%	4915.00
	50.00%	4963.00
	61.80%	5012.00
	76.40%	5072.00
	78.60%	5081.00
Part profits booked at 4920NF on sept 23
SL triggered at 11.00AM Close
Short initiated and again SL triggered at 2.00PM
Buy above Day Pivot /Day LEMA with SL hourly close below 4830

Intraday Update 10.15AM

Bought at NS 4910NF with SL trailed to  Hourly close below 4880

Intraday update 11.50AM

Booked profits partly for intraday as almost 50% retr is reached and 4955NS is the week Pivot, 4932NS is 5ema. Holding the remailing Longs with SL Hourly close below 4830. Will add more longs on dips (near 4920, 4880 - if it comes.)

ANALYSIS FOR SEPT 26

Nifty made a Low of 4820Nf on sept 23 and had a volatile session of going upto 4924 -prev day close and again back to 4868 to close below the Developed weekLema of 4888 and Day Pivot. Based on the Harmonic pattern 224% retracement was complete in Hour TF and a Buy was initiated at 4835NF.

The Longs MUST BE TERMINATED if NS makes an Hour close below 4800 as after this point the Hour TF gets INVALIDATED and DAY TF comes into play.
If it moves past the Day Pivot of 4876 and then the week Lema of 4888 and makes an Hour close above it, then trail the Sl to Hour close below 4875.



The minimum retr required is 38.2% which happens to be the week pivot and Day Lema levels. part book at these levels or trail SL to the next important levels.
In the 5min chart above the important retracements and the corresponding TA parameters are given. These levels are for booking profits OR When each level is scaled then the scaled level could be trailed as SL.

It is not advisable to SHORT at these levels until NS closes below 4800 in the present stage. If it is the formation of Bearish pattern then there would be more upsides If it is an ABCD formation then there would be limited upsides and more downsides. SO one should clearly wait for the trend to get set before shorting at these stages.

Important week levels:

Week levels
CLOSE	4868
PIVOT	4955
HI EMA	5165
LOW EMA	4888
5 EMA	4992
5 SMA	4960

Important Day levels:

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	4868
PIVOT	4876	5EMA	4981
HI EMA	5046	10EMA	5010
LOW EMA	4945	13EMA	5015
5 SMA	5019	26EMA	5053
20DMA	5016	prev HI	4930
50 DMA	5198	prev LOW	4829
50Hr MA	5040
100Hr MA	5038

 

	Trades Initiated
Current pattern	O-X	A	B	C
Bullish Shark pattern complete in Hr TF	4978 - 5153	5017	5170	4825
Trade initiated - sept 25	sept 26 - SL - Hr cl below 4800NS
Bought at 4835NF	Retr of BC NF
	38.20%	4953.70
	50.00%	4995.00
	61.80%	5036.00
	76.40%	5087.40
	78.60%	5095.00
Part profits booked at 4920NF on sept 23
When Hour closes above 4888 trail SL to Prev close.
If Hour closes below 4800NS then initiate short with 4830NS Hourly close as SL

 

When Hour close below 4800 the next levels as per Day TF are:
Day TF retracements	161.80%	4751.56
for 4911 -5169	200.00%	4653.00