NIFTY MAKE OR BREAK?? 100 DMA TO DECIDE

Nifty has made a Low of 5883 - at 100 DMA. This becomes a very important support level. Now for few charts.

The Monthly Nifty chart Clearly shows that the Breakdown of 5880 levels would lead to a break down of Channels dragging Nifty to lower levels.

 

The Day charts clearly indicates support at 100 DMA

 

Development of Bearish Shark Pattern in Hour Charts:

 

 

Development of Bearish Shark Pattern.

OX -6229 - 5936

A - 6134 -61.8% retr of OX

B - 5883 - 113% -127% retr of XA

Holding current Low @ 5883,

Proj for C:

88.6% of OX - 6195

or 161.8% of AB - 6289

 

If 100 DMA @ 5895 breaks decisively then it would be an ABCD pattern i.e.,

A - 6229

B - 5936

C - 6134 - 61.8% retr of AB

Projection for D:

127% retr of BC - 5880

141.4% - 5854

161.8% - 5813

 

SYNOPSIS: Holding of 100 DMA is very important to avoid futher downsides.

 

 

 

 

 

ANALYSIS FOR APR 9

Nifty has closed just near the Day Pivot and week Pivot. Nifty has formed an Bearish abandoned Baby pattern.

BEARISH ABANDONED BABY -
Look for a white candle in an upward price trend. Following that, a doji whose lower shadow remains above the prior candle’s high. The third day is a black candle with an upper shadow below the doji’s low
As per the above chart the upper shadow of the last candle is below the low of the previous day's candle with a gap down - giving the possibility of a Bearish Abandoned Baby - but it is formed as a spinning top - So a big red candle for follow up would confirm the pattern.

Nifty Has managed to close just at the Day 5EMA. The 10,13 AND 26 EMA'S are Bearishly alligned with a Possible Fast Fall set up. A Close below the Day 5 EMA would call for weakness.


Harmonic Patterns:

After completing a Bullish ABCD pattern in Hour Charts at 5136 - a 61.8% retracement is done to reach 5379.  If Nifty manges to get thro 5380 - breakout above the Day channel and trendline resistance of Hour Charts then the Bearish Shark Pattern (ref chart Mar 23 CLICK HERE) would come into play for much higher targets upto 5550++.

The Long term channel (ref chart March 23 Click here) has given good supports at 5136 lows, and has reached 5379. A Breakout above this is very much required for a good upmove.



WEEK CHART:

SYNOPSIS: A move above 5380 - corresponding to week Hema would Lead to good upmoves. Day/Week close below 5225 would lead to weakness.

Trading Time between 5380 and 5220.
                            

Week levels		Month Levels
CLOSE	5323	CLOSE	5296
PIVOT	5327	PIVOT	5310
HI EMA	5386	HI EMA	5434
LOW EMA	5227	LOW EMA	4940
5 EMA	5315	5 EMA	5201
5 SMA	5310	3 EMA	5247
PrevHigh	5379	High	5499
Prev Low	5279	LOW	5136

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5323	5 SMA	5295
PIVOT	5322	5EMA	5306
HI EMA	5327	10EMA	5291
LOW EMA	5274	13EMA	5292
prev HI	5338	26DEMA	5297
prev LOW	5305	100 Hr MA	5279
50 DMA	5324	200 Hr MA	5320
20DMA	5300

Analysis for Feb 24

INTRADAY UPDATe 11.00AM:
BULLISH CROSSOVER IN DAY MA CHARTS:

Intraday Update 10.45 AM:
INitiating an Agressive Buy for Intraday at 5485NF/ 5442NS  with SL Hour close below 5430 NS.

Intraday Update 10.30 AM:
Partbooked at 5458NS trailing the SL to Hour close above 5482 Day LEMA.

ANALYSIS FOR FEB 24:
Nifty Has closed below the Week Pivot lvels and Day Pivot/Day HEMA and Day 5EMA.

Important Support levels for the Upmove to continue:
100 Hr MA -      5438
Week HEMA -   5445
Month HEMA - 5417

Important Resistances:
Developing Week Pivot - 5522
                   Day 5EMA -  5511
                      50 Hr MA - 5522
                   Day HEMA - 5566

BEARISH SHARK PATTERN WEEKLY TF:

Bearish Shark pattern:OX - 5740 - 4720
A = 5400 = 61.8%retr of OX
B (current) = 4531 > 113% retr of AB & equal to 127% retr of OA
Proj for C:
113% of AB - 5512.97
88% of OX - 5623 - DONE

The initial target of 5630 - corresponding to the 88.6% retr of the leg OX is achieved.

Nifty has made a l;ow of 5457 NS corresponding to the channel support in weekly charts. On  close below this level - corresponding to week HEMA - firther porjections can be made for downsides. HOLDING ABOVE 5450 LEVELS THE UPMOVE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR TARGETS NEAR 5700++

DAY channel chart:

Hour chart:

Nifty is trading between 50 HR MA -5522 and 100 HR MA - 5438. Break below 5438 more downsides

 possible.

HOUR CHANNEL:



AGGRESSIVELY SHORT FROM YESTERDAY AT 5510NS WITH TODAY'S SL CLOSE ABOVE DAY 5EMA - 5515NS

Week levels		week Developing levels
CLOSE	5564	CLOSE
PIVOT	5507	PIVOT	5522
HI EMA	5356	HI EMA	5445
LOW EMA	5146	LOW EMA	5251
5 EMA	5317	5 EMA	5392
5 SMA	5305	5 SMA	5172
PrevHigh	5607	High	5630
Prev Low	5351	LOW	5461

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5483	5 SMA	5536
PIVOT	5494	5EMA	5511
HI EMA	5566	10EMA	5473
LOW EMA	5482	13EMA	5441
prev HI	5537	26EMA	5308
prev LOW	5461	50 Hr MA	5522
100 DMA	5016	100 Hr MA	5438
50 DMA	5024

Analysis for Feb 9

Bank Nifty Hour Chart :
 
                      

Intraday Update 12.10 PM:
Rising wedge in Hour chart BankNifty:

Intraday Update 10.30 AM:
Rising Wedge in BN day charts - breakdown Point below 10200.

ANALYSIS FOR FEB 9:

Nifty has closed above the Day Pivot and Day Hema exhibiting strength. Weakness below the Day Hema/Day 5EMA. Persistence -ve divergence are seen in Day and Hour charts. For any Fall - Nifty  must close below the 5DEMA.

The Bearish Shark pattern is still continuing.

Holding above the Trend Line - Nifty is Likely to reach the Targets upto,
161.8% - 5450
113% of OX -  5498

Any Dips upto the WEEK HEMA 5225 or upto Month High EMA at 5286 would be Huge supports.
Weakness in Week TF/month TF only below 5225/5286.

TRADING RANGE BETWEEN 5400 - 5285.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5368
PIVOT	5363	5 SMA	5198
HI EMA	5359	5EMA	5323
LOW EMA	5284	10EMA	5254
prev HI	5397	13EMA	5215
prev LOW	5325	26EMA	5048
20 DMA	5107	20 Hr MA	5363
200 DMA	5192	50 Hr MA	5283

From the Previous Low of 5087 to 5413 -  the Retracements to be watched are :
  

23.60%	5336.06	Day 5EMA
38.20%	5288.47	Month HEMA
50.00%	5250.00	Week High EMA

ANALYSIS FOR FEB 2

Intraday Update 10.30 AM:

Hour chart:

Day chart:

ANALYSIS FOR FEB 2:

Nifty closed at 5236 above the 200 DMA. Sustaining and closing above the 200 DMA is very important for furhter upmoves - as it has tested the Long term trendline/channel at the High of 5245.

Not only the channel joining the Highs has completed a channel, but the channel formed by closing values also has completed a channel.

The day close during the following sessions must close above the channel for futher upmoves. If the closing is within the channel - then a pause is likely for the upmove.

Weekly channel resistances: (for previous chart click here)

Considering the Harmonic Pattern, the Bearish Shark Pattern of the Day TF is continuing. The initial target of the Pattern is 88.6% of OX ( i.e - 5400 - 4639) which arrives at 5313.

ALL FACTORS POINT OUT TO CONTINUED BULLISHNESS - A REASON FOR TRADERS TO BE CAUTIOUS!! A HUGE BEARISH ABCD RECIPROCAL PATTERN HAS EMERGED.

BEARISH RECIPROCAL ABCD Pattern:AB - 5177 - 5944
C - 4531- greater than 161.8% retr of AB.
As per the pattern, C must be greater then 161.8% but less than 200%
200% of AB is projected as 4410
Projected D : must be above 50% retr and below 61.8% retr of BC
50% - 5237 - achieved.
61.8% - 5404

One can expect any shorting oppurtunity from 5300 - 5400. THIS PATTERN GETS INVALIDATED ABOVE 5405 - 5410 NS. 

FOR ANY LONGS CLOSE BELOW THE 200 DMA @ 5200 NS MUST BE THE STRICT STOPLOSS.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5236
PIVOT	5213	5 SMA	5176
HI EMA	5190	5EMA	5171
LOW EMA	5115	10EMA	5106
prev HI	5245	13EMA	5072
prev LOW	5159	26EMA	4977
100 DMA	4954	20 Hr MA	5157
200 DMA	5204	50 Hr MA	5115

AGGRESSIVE TRADES:

BUY ABOVE 5215 NS WITH SL HOUR CLOSE BELOW PIVOT 5210/ 200 DMA 5204.

SELL BELOW 5300 WITH SL 5320NS BASED ON THE INITIAL TARGET OF THE BEARISH SHARK PATTERN.