Analysis for April 10

Nifty yesterday formed a Huge red candle confirming the Bearish Baby Candle Pattern (April 9 chart ref. CLICK HERE) and closing below the Day Pivot, 5 EMA and Day HEMA. Close below the Day LEMA would lead to more downsides.

Below is the chart showing support levels of Nifty for this week

FIRST TRENDLINE SUPPORT - 5170 - 5180 - 200 DMA
TRIANGLE SUPPORT - 5100 - 5120 -  40 week MA
CHANNEL SUPPORT - 5050-5070 - 100 DMABreakdown below 5050 leads to 4950 levels -Month LEMA - 61.8% retracement for 4531 - 5629

The Bearish Shark Pattern will be invalidated below 5136 and it would form a Bullish ABCD again and would be labelled as:A-B- 5499-5136
C - 5379 - 61.8% OF AB
Proj for D:
113% - 5104
127% - 5070
161.8% - 4985

THE PROJECTIONS FOR D COINCIDES WITH THE SUPPORT LEVELS PROVIDED IN THE DAY CHART ABOVE.

AS THE HOUR IS OVERSOLD THERE MIGHT BE A BOUNCE FROM THE SUPPORT LEVELS OF 5180 -5200 INITIALLY OR THE 200 DMA -5151.
SO AN AGRESSIVE BUY CAN BE GENERATED AT THESE LEVELS WITH STRICT SL BELOW 200 DMA 5151.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5234	5 SMA	5306
PIVOT	5250	5EMA	5282
HI EMA	5314	10EMA	5281
LOW EMA	5231	13EMA	5284
prev HI	5288	26DEMA	5292
prev LOW	5228	10 DMA	5261
100 DMA	5079	100 Hr MA	5270
200 DMA	5151	200 Hr MA	5312

ANALYSIS FOR APR 9

Nifty has closed just near the Day Pivot and week Pivot. Nifty has formed an Bearish abandoned Baby pattern.

BEARISH ABANDONED BABY -
Look for a white candle in an upward price trend. Following that, a doji whose lower shadow remains above the prior candle’s high. The third day is a black candle with an upper shadow below the doji’s low
As per the above chart the upper shadow of the last candle is below the low of the previous day's candle with a gap down - giving the possibility of a Bearish Abandoned Baby - but it is formed as a spinning top - So a big red candle for follow up would confirm the pattern.

Nifty Has managed to close just at the Day 5EMA. The 10,13 AND 26 EMA'S are Bearishly alligned with a Possible Fast Fall set up. A Close below the Day 5 EMA would call for weakness.


Harmonic Patterns:

After completing a Bullish ABCD pattern in Hour Charts at 5136 - a 61.8% retracement is done to reach 5379.  If Nifty manges to get thro 5380 - breakout above the Day channel and trendline resistance of Hour Charts then the Bearish Shark Pattern (ref chart Mar 23 CLICK HERE) would come into play for much higher targets upto 5550++.

The Long term channel (ref chart March 23 Click here) has given good supports at 5136 lows, and has reached 5379. A Breakout above this is very much required for a good upmove.



WEEK CHART:

SYNOPSIS: A move above 5380 - corresponding to week Hema would Lead to good upmoves. Day/Week close below 5225 would lead to weakness.

Trading Time between 5380 and 5220.
                            

Week levels		Month Levels
CLOSE	5323	CLOSE	5296
PIVOT	5327	PIVOT	5310
HI EMA	5386	HI EMA	5434
LOW EMA	5227	LOW EMA	4940
5 EMA	5315	5 EMA	5201
5 SMA	5310	3 EMA	5247
PrevHigh	5379	High	5499
Prev Low	5279	LOW	5136

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5323	5 SMA	5295
PIVOT	5322	5EMA	5306
HI EMA	5327	10EMA	5291
LOW EMA	5274	13EMA	5292
prev HI	5338	26DEMA	5297
prev LOW	5305	100 Hr MA	5279
50 DMA	5324	200 Hr MA	5320
20DMA	5300

ANALYSIS FOR MAR 23

Nifty had a heavy fall and closed below the Day LEMA and Week LEMA. An EOD close above the Day LEMA 5251 will give a pause to this downmove.

Bullish Crab Pattern:

Development of Bullish Crab Pattern.XA - 4531 - 5629
B - 5171 38.2% of XA - 5209 - DONE
C - 5499 - approx 70.7%(5494)- Done
Holding C, Proj for D:
78.6% -5241 - Done
113%- 5128
127% -5082
161.8% - 4968
224%- 4764

The 113% projection of 5128 is very important as it corresponds to the Long term channel Support. A Bounce off this level is likely if the Channel Support is respected.

If the Channel support is broken NS will drop down to the 127% projection 5082 corresponding to 100 DMA and the downward channel support.

To continue within the Contracting triangle NS must trade above 5210. The Channel support comes to 5080 levels.

Hour channel Suports:

CHANNEL SUPPORTS:
5171 - 5164CHANNEL SUPPORTS:
5080-70

If the channel support is respected at 5171 - then the Bearish Gartley Pattern(Click Here) formed in Hour Charts would continue. Below 5171 it would be a Bearish Shark Pattern.  

Below 5171 - the Pattern would be a Bearish Shark Pattern :
OX - 5629 - 5171
A - 5499 - 70.7% OF OX
with Proj for B as:
113% - 5128
127% -5082.

SYNOPSIS:
TODAY'S TRADING LEVELS:
5210/5171/5128/5082.

Aggressive Sell Below 5210 with Day LEMA as SL.
Aggressive buy at 5171 with Hourly close below 200 DMA @ 5164 as SL
Aggressive BUY at 5128 levels with EOD close below 5082 - 100 DMA as SL.

FOR BANK NIFTY CHARTS CLICK HERE

Week levels		Week Developing levels
CLOSE	5318	CLOSE
PIVOT	5374	PIVOT	5269
HI EMA	5452	HI EMA	5425
LOW EMA	5248	LOW EMA	5234
5 EMA	5338	5 EMA	5302
5 SMA	5401	5 SMA	5334
PrevHigh	5499	High	5372
Prev Low	5305	LOW	5206

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5228	5 SMA	5289
PIVOT	5273	5EMA	5295
HI EMA	5376	10EMA	5317
LOW EMA	5251	13EMA	5324
prev HI	5386	26DEMA	5321
prev LOW	5206	20 Hr MA	5305
50 DMA	5262	100 DMA	5079
200DMA	5164

Analysis for Mar 22

Nifty found support at 50 DMA rallied to hit a century and has just closed below the Day HEMA. Strength in upward movement on a close above Day Hema.

There are both Bullish and Bearish Scenarios at work currently.
Bullish Scenario: 5650++ above 5450 - which corresponds to week Hema, current Month HEma and Contracting Triangle Breakout.

Bearish Scenario: Breakdown below 5233- Week LEMA and Contracting triangle breakdown - Initial Support 200 DMA  - Further Breakdown would lead to 4950 (Month LEMA) levels.

Bullish Crab Pattern Day TF:

Development of Bullish Crab Pattern.XA - 4531 - 5629
B - 5171 38.2% of XA - 5209 - DONE
C - 5499 - approx 70.7%(5494)- Done
Holding C(5499), Proj for D:78.6% -5241 - Done
113%- 5128
161.8% - 4968
224%- 4764

 If the Contracting triangle Breaksout above 5450, then the New C would be 5550++
Above 5629 the Pattern would be Bullish Shark Pattern with C above 5650++

 If the Contracting triangle Breaksdown below 5233, then D would be achieved 4950 --.

Factors Supporting BULLISH SCENARIO:

1. DEVELOPMENT OF A BEARISH GARTLEY PATTERN IN HOUR TF:

Bearish Gartley
XA - 5629 - 5171
B - 5499 - 70.7%
C - 5233 - 78.6%
Proj for D - 38.2% - 5334
50% - 5366
61.8% - 5397
78.6% - 5442
88.6% - 5468
113% - 5533

2. Golden crossover of 50DMA over 200 DMA and Nifty has currently taken the support of 50 DMA for the Past three days.

FACTORS SUPPORTING BEARISH VIEW:

1. RISING WEDGE BREAKDOWN BELOW 5233:

  The week Closing must be above the Week HEMA for upmoves to continue. Currently the Week TA is Down as a Close above the HEMA or PIVOT has not yet materialised. The 5D indicator is also down.

2. FAST FALL SET UP WITH 5Day EMA, 10Day EMA AND 13Day EMA's.

Fast fall set upwith 5EMA,10EMA and 13 EMA.
 5 EMA - 5329
10 EMA - 5336
13 EMA - 5340
The Fast fall setup will be negated only on EOD close above 5400.

SYNOPSIS:
TRADING TIME TILL CLOSE ABOVE DAY HEMA - 5371.
Resistances at 5375 - Day HEMA/week Pivot
                       5395 - 200 Hr MA
                       5401 - Month HEMA/Week 5SMA
                       5435 - current month HEMA
                    
Supports at    5336 - 100 Hr MA/Week 5EMA/Day 5EMA
                      5275 - Day LEMA
                      5250 - 50 DMA
                       5160 - 200 DMA             
                                

Week levels		Week Developing levels
CLOSE	5318	CLOSE
PIVOT	5374	PIVOT	5324
HI EMA	5452	HI EMA	5425
LOW EMA	5248	LOW EMA	5243
5 EMA	5338	5 EMA	5347
5 SMA	5401	5 SMA	5361
PrevHigh	5499	High	5372
Prev Low	5305	LOW	5233

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5365	5 SMA	5319
PIVOT	5331	5EMA	5329
HI EMA	5371	10EMA	5336
LOW EMA	5274	13EMA	5340
prev HI	5372	26DEMA	5328
prev LOW	5256	50 Hr MA	5361
20 DMA	5353	100 Hr MA	5336
50 DMA	5252	200 Hr MA	5393
200DMA	5166