Analysis for May 31

Nifty Has closed above the Day Lema and 5EMA - indicating lack of downward momentum. Today being the Expiry and Month's close if Nifty Closes above 4937 - Month LEMA - and subsequently followed by tomorrow's weekly close above 5EMA, the Bulls task might be easier - Else Niftywould drift Lower.

WEEKLY HARMONIC PATTERN:

Developing Bullish Butterfly Pattern Holding 4788 low:
XA - 4531 - 5629
B -4788- approx 78.6% retr of XA.
Projections for C:38.2% retr of AB - 5109 
44.7% retr of AB - 5164 
50% - retr of AB - 5207
61.8% retr of AB - 5307

Considering the present down movement - the projections seems to be Highy Bullish. The above projections are valid HOLDING THE LOW OF 4788 - 4765. If Broken the next level to watch would be,
88.6% retr of XA - 4656 -which would then become the new B and the projections would vary accordingly.

The above Bullish weekly Projection is supported by the 5D lead indicator.

Nifty has found good channel support at 4788 in weekly charts.

A close above 4930-50 - today being the Month end and expiry is a must for further UPMOVES - as indicated by the DAy S Macd chart:

BEARISH CRAB PATTERN IN HOUR CHARTS:

Development of Bearish Crab Pattern:
XA - 5432 - 4788
B - 5020 - approx 38.2% retr of XA
Proj for C:38.2% - 4931 - corresponds to Month LEMA
44.7% -4916 - approx Day /Week LEMA
50% - 4904 - 
61.8% - 4876
78.6% -4837
88.6% - 4814

SYNOPSIS:
NIFTY IS LIKELY TO GATHER SUPPORTS AT 4905-4915 LEVELS (based on Day LEMA and Month LEMA) INITIALLY AND THE BOUNCE BACK WOULD BE DECIDING FACTOR FOR THE C TO COMPLETE AND THE BULLISH LEG D TO START of the Bearish Crab Pattern.

BUY AT 4905-4920 LEVELS WITH STRICT EOD STOPLOSS OF 4870.

Week levels		Month Levels
CLOSE	4920	CLOSE
PIVOT	4894	PIVOT	5006
HI EMA	5066	HI EMA	5370
LOW EMA	4918	LOW EMA	4937
5 EMA	4997	5 EMA	5128
5 SMA	5004	5 SMA	5216
PrevHigh	4956	High	5280
Prev Low	4804	LOW	4789

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	4951	5 SMA	4954
PIVOT	4956	5EMA	4949
HI EMA	4972	10EMA	4941
LOW EMA	4924	13EMA	4949
prev HI	4971	26DEMA	5007
prev LOW	4945	20 Hr MA	4977
10 DMA	4913	50 Hr MA	4922
20 DMA	4955	100 Hr MA	4911
50 DMA	5134	200 Hr MA	5039
200 DMA	5077

	Trade Table
Current pattern	X-A	B(current)
Bearish Crab Pattern Developing	5432 - 4788	5020
Trade initiated	SL EOD 4870
Buy at 4905-4920 levels	Proj for C
	38.20%	4931.00
	50.00%	4904.00
	61.80%	4876.00
	78.60%	4837.00

ANALYSIS FOR APRIL 30

INTRADAY UPDATE 2.20pm:

If Trendline support is respected then good upmoves.

ANALYSIS FOR APRIL 30:

NIFTY closed with a Doji on friday depicting indeciseiveness. The weekly candle has alco formed an INSIDE DAY pattern - again depicting indesiciveness.

Today being the monthly close is an important day to trigger reversal or continuation of downtrend.

BEARISH FACTORS as per TA:
1. BEARISH ALLIGNMENT OF ALL DAY EMA'S - 5,10,13 AND 26.
2. FAST FALL SET UP OF 100 DMA AND 200 DMA
3. BEARISH ALLIGNEMENT OF ALL HOUR MA'S - 20,50,100 AND 200 Hr MA'S. - likely to lead to a fast fall between the MA'S.

BULLISH FACTORS:
1. PERSISTENT +VE DIVERGENCE IN HOUR CHARTS OF FMACD, 14 RSI AND 9RSI.
2. NIFTY CLOSING ABOVE THE WEEK AND DAY LEMA'S


NIFTY has to close EOD above 5245 DAY HEMA - channel breakout levels also corresponding to 20 DMA.

Week levels		Month Levels
CLOSE	5191	CLOSE
PIVOT	5218	PIVOT	5241
HI EMA	5339	HI EMA	5415
LOW EMA	5187	LOW EMA	5012
5 EMA	5252	5 EMA	5198
5 SMA	5261	5 SMA	5139
PrevHigh	5311	High	5379
Prev Low	5154	LOW	5154

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5191	5 SMA	5238
PIVOT	5189	5EMA	5209
HI EMA	5243	10EMA	5229
LOW EMA	5179	13EMA	5236
prev HI	5223	26DEMA	5256
prev LOW	5154	20 Hr MA	5195
10 DMA	5245	50 Hr MA	5240
20 DMA	5256	100 Hr MA	5247
50 DMA	5319	200 Hr MA	5259
100 DMA	5130
200 DMA	5136

POSSIBLE POSITIONAL TRADES:
BUY ABOVE 5220-5230(MONTH 5EMA AND CHANNEL BREAKOUT)WITH SL 5175- (DAY LEMA)

ANALYSIS FOR APRIL 27

IMPORTANT  LEVELS TO WATCH EOD TODAY:

MONTH 5 EMA -5201
WEEK -
CURRENT LEMA - 5189
CURRENT 5EMA - 5252
DAY:
5 EMA -5217
DAY LEMA - 5191

Analysis for april 16

200 DMA - 5148.  Prev Low 5135. Holding above this level on closing basis is a necessity for futher upmoves. If EOD closing is above the Day LEMA of 5217 -  it would be first sign of pause of downmove.

Hourly charts exhibit + divergence:

Week levels
CLOSE	5207
PIVOT	5227
HI EMA	5359
LOW EMA	5213
5 EMA	5279
5 SMA	5284
PrevHigh	5307
Prev Low	5185

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5207	5 SMA	5238
PIVOT	5233	5EMA	5244
HI EMA	5293	10EMA	5257
LOW EMA	5217	13EMA	5262
prev HI	5307	26DEMA	5292
prev LOW	5185	10 DMA	5261
20 DMA	5269	100 Hr MA	5254
200 DMA	5148	200 Hr MA	5295

20 Hr MA	50 Hr MA	100Hr MA	200Hr MA
5,253	5,279	5,255	5,296
5,253	5,276	5,254	5,295

FEW CHARTS OF APRIL 12

Bank Nifty Futures 5 min Chart:

Breakout above today's high 10455 BNF.

DAY CHARTS 5D:

NIFTY DAY SUPPORT RESISTANCE:

BREAKOUT ABOVE 5310-20 NS
NIFTY HOUR CHART:

Analysis for April 10

Nifty yesterday formed a Huge red candle confirming the Bearish Baby Candle Pattern (April 9 chart ref. CLICK HERE) and closing below the Day Pivot, 5 EMA and Day HEMA. Close below the Day LEMA would lead to more downsides.

Below is the chart showing support levels of Nifty for this week

FIRST TRENDLINE SUPPORT - 5170 - 5180 - 200 DMA
TRIANGLE SUPPORT - 5100 - 5120 -  40 week MA
CHANNEL SUPPORT - 5050-5070 - 100 DMABreakdown below 5050 leads to 4950 levels -Month LEMA - 61.8% retracement for 4531 - 5629

The Bearish Shark Pattern will be invalidated below 5136 and it would form a Bullish ABCD again and would be labelled as:A-B- 5499-5136
C - 5379 - 61.8% OF AB
Proj for D:
113% - 5104
127% - 5070
161.8% - 4985

THE PROJECTIONS FOR D COINCIDES WITH THE SUPPORT LEVELS PROVIDED IN THE DAY CHART ABOVE.

AS THE HOUR IS OVERSOLD THERE MIGHT BE A BOUNCE FROM THE SUPPORT LEVELS OF 5180 -5200 INITIALLY OR THE 200 DMA -5151.
SO AN AGRESSIVE BUY CAN BE GENERATED AT THESE LEVELS WITH STRICT SL BELOW 200 DMA 5151.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5234	5 SMA	5306
PIVOT	5250	5EMA	5282
HI EMA	5314	10EMA	5281
LOW EMA	5231	13EMA	5284
prev HI	5288	26DEMA	5292
prev LOW	5228	10 DMA	5261
100 DMA	5079	100 Hr MA	5270
200 DMA	5151	200 Hr MA	5312