Analysis for July 27

NIFTY made a dash towards the low of 5032 levels closing below all parameters and presenting a gloomy picture that it would go to 4500 levels immediately :)!! But as usual market is going to surprise with +ve global clues and a Gap up is certain.

How far it would go up?what are the resell levels if any? should we resell or change coats for a BUY?? Charts Speak for itself!!

Day 5-0 Harmonic Pattern:

The Bullish 5-0 starts at the 0 point, representing an extended down leg to begin the pattern at

X. The initial point X acts as the low of this prior substantial decline. After a quick reactive

bounce to the A point, the structure abruptly continues the decline, only to find support slightly

past the prior low at X. This is the failed wave 3 or wave 5 – in Elliot Wave terms – that

establishes the rest of the structure. However, the important limits from the Harmonic Trading

perspective requires that this X, A extension be at least a 1.13 but not greater than a 1.618.

After that impulsive failed wave is established, the BC leg rallies to at least a 1.618 extension

of the AB length but it does not exceed 2.24. Again, this tight range of 1.618-2.24 is a

defining element of the structure. If the 1.618 limit is not reached, the structure is not a valid

5-0.

AS PER THE TEXT ABOVE: (REFER JUNE 8,13 POSTS FOR PATTERN DETAILS)

Bullish 5-0 pattern:
XA - 4804 - 5020
B - 4770 - 113% retr of XA
C - 5349 - approx 224% retr of AB DONE
D - 5032 - 50% retr of BC - DONE
As per the Pattern Nifty Has completed a 50 % retracement from the High of 5349 which happens to be the 224% retracement of the previous wave 5020 - 4770 - The parameters fits perfectly within the boundary of the 5-0 pattern.

Considering the EW perspective:
 

Within Elliott Wave terms, the AB leg may be a failed wave

3 of a corrective "abc" or a failed wave 5 of an entire completed trend. Although these

are obvious similarities, from the Harmonic Trading perspective, it is important to

examine the structure via its relative Fibonacci measurements to satisfy the pattern

requirements.

It will take some time to begin to identify this structure but the obvious characteristic is the failed

down wave followed by a precise 1.618-2.24 extension. At that point, it is important to

calculate the 50% retracement level with the Reciprocal AB=CD and study the price action in

the PRZ.

Here considering the AB leg as the 5th wave followed by an extended wave of 224% retracement and now a fall upto 50% retracement calls for an UPTREND.

Retracements to watch for:

38.2% - 5153 - 100 DMA/week 5 EMA/current month 5EMA

44.7% - 5174 - Month 5 EMA

50% - 5191  -  Month 5 EMA +20pts

61.8% - 5238 - 20 DMA

If the Months close is above 5175 - then the uptrend would resume.

SYNOPSIS:

BUY ABOVE 5090 - 200 SMA WITH POSITIONAL SL 5040 (PRZ) of the Pattern INTRADAY SL 5080.

WEAKNESS ONLY BELOW THE CURRENT LOW OF 5032 - INTIALTARGET 4991 - 61.8% retr.

Developing Week Levels
CLOSE
PIVOT	5080
HI EMA	5232
LOW EMA	5106
5 EMA	5153
10 EMA	5149
PrevHigh	5164
Prev Low	5032

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5043	5 SMA	5121
PIVOT	5067	5EMA	5113
HI EMA	5156	10EMA	5155
LOW EMA	5094	13EMA	5168
prev HI	5126	20 Hr MA	5104
prev LOW	5032	50 Hr MA	5158
50 DMA	5102	100 Hr MA	5211
100  DMA	5156	200 Hr MA	5201
200 DMA	5099

Analysis for July 26

11.30 AM update:
Nifty has found support near 200/50 DMA yesterday and is still hovering above those levels. 50/200 DMA seems to be a good support - giving a Bullish Golden Cross again with 50DMA over the 200 DMA. So terminate the remaining shorts at current levels - 5100 NS. Aggressive Longs can be taken at the same levels with Stict SL at 5095 (below 200 DMA)EOD close. Today being expiry day - but four more trading days for the month to close - Bulls would try to close this month above the developing 5 EMA at 5150-55 levels.

The FALLING WEDGE( CLICK HERE) has broke out - and Holding the low of 5093 - Nifty Likely to move up to the Chanel Top - 5175 - last months 5 EMA.

Short below 5085 if EOD close is below 5090 NS - 200 DMA.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5110	5 SMA	5133
PIVOT	5103	5EMA	5148
HI EMA	5170	10EMA	5180
LOW EMA	5125	13EMA	5189
prev HI	5122	20 Hr MA	5120
prev LOW	5077	50 Hr MA	5175
50 DMA	5099	100 Hr MA	5227
100  DMA	5159	200 Hr MA	5202
200 DMA	5098

Analysis for July 25

11.00 AM Post:

Nifty has reached 50 SMA and 200 DMA - 5090 levels now. Partbook the shorts created at 5170 ranges and Trail the remaining SL to 5150 DLEMA.

5090 is the support of the Channel and Falling wedge formed in Hour Charts. It also corresponds to 50 SMA and 200 SMA. A pause is likely at these levels.

+ve divergences are also exhibited  in Hour 35D, 14 RSI and 9RSI charts. If 5085 - 80 levels breaks then the next minor support levels are 5040-30 levelsa.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5128	5 SMA	5182
PIVOT	5125	5EMA	5167
HI EMA	5195	10EMA	5195
LOW EMA	5150	13EMA	5202
prev HI	5144	20 Hr MA	5154
prev LOW	5103	50 Hr MA	5192
50 DMA	5094	100 Hr MA	5241
100  DMA	5161	200 Hr MA	5202
200 DMA	5096

Analysis for July 20

BANK NIFTY WEEKLY CHART UPDATE:

Close below the TRENDLINE would pull Bank Nifty further down near the Base of the Triangle formed - and the Lead indicator alsois in favour of it.
If supported then, a very Big upmove is possible as the pattern is  an Inverse H&S with slope tilting dwonwards. The Breakout will be very sharp.

ANALYSIS FOR JULY 20:
Nifty did not show strength in the upmove yesterday terminating at 50% retracement at 5258. The Breakout from the Falling wedge (CLICK HERE) was resisted by a channel.

Week Chart:

The Lead indicator has turned down and the break down of the Low of 5170 would be a channel breakdown, below Week 5 EMa, Day LEMA and 100 DMA.

With an EOD close below the week 5EMA 5220 and Day Lema of 5209, Nifty would get Bearish. The Longs are to be terminated at such a juncture.

Sell  @ 5165 ranges with SL 5190-5220 EOD close.

Developing Week Levels
CLOSE
PIVOT	5223
HI EMA	5266
LOW EMA	5143
5 EMA	5220
10 EMA	5179
PrevHigh	5258
Prev Low	5169

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5243	5 SMA	5215
PIVOT	5245	5EMA	5229
HI EMA	5253	10EMA	5237
LOW EMA	5209	13EMA	5234
prev HI	5258	20 Hr MA	5215
prev LOW	5233	50 Hr MA	5241
10 DMA	5256	100 Hr MA	5268
20 DMA	5235	200 Hr MA	5195
100  DMA	5167
200 DMA	5093

Analysis for july 19

Nifty has  found support at the 100 DMA levels yesterday and has closed above the Day Lema and Day 5EMA.

50% positional shorts were booked out at 5190 levels yesterday and aggressive longs initiated at the same levels with SL below 100 DMA. and today covered the rest in opening 5250NS.

 Retracement to be watched for the Longs taken -                   50% -5259
                                                                                               61.8% - 5280
                                                                                               78.6% - 5310
                                                                                               88.6%- 5328

Buy again in ranges of 5200 levels with SL 5180 EOD

Today EOD close below the Day HEMA below 5250 would set in weakness again.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5216	5 SMA	5214
PIVOT	5203	5EMA	5223
HI EMA	5250	10EMA	5235
LOW EMA	5197	13EMA	5233
prev HI	5223	20 Hr MA	5206
prev LOW	5169	50 Hr MA	5249
10 DMA	5264	100 Hr MA	5266
20 DMA	5231	200 Hr MA	5189
100  DMA	5169
200 DMA	5092

Analysis for July 18

NIFTY LEVELS:
Important Resistance - Day LEMA and Day 5EMA - 5210 - 5230
Important supports - 100 DMA and 200 Hr MA- 5170-5185

Total weakness below 100 DMA would lead to 200 DMA at 5090-5100.
If EOD close above 5230 - then apause in Down move.

So SL for the Positional shorts taken at 5330 levels trailed to EOD close above 5235 - 10Points above Day 5 EMA

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5193	5 SMA	5232
PIVOT	5204	5EMA	5226
HI EMA	5263	10EMA	5240
LOW EMA	5212	13EMA	5235
prev HI	5237	20 Hr MA	5222
prev LOW	5182	50 Hr MA	5262
10 DMA	5273	100 Hr MA	5263
20 DMA	5226	200 Hr MA	5183
100  DMA	5172
200 DMA	5090