Analysis for July 20

BANK NIFTY WEEKLY CHART UPDATE:

Close below the TRENDLINE would pull Bank Nifty further down near the Base of the Triangle formed - and the Lead indicator alsois in favour of it.
If supported then, a very Big upmove is possible as the pattern is  an Inverse H&S with slope tilting dwonwards. The Breakout will be very sharp.

ANALYSIS FOR JULY 20:
Nifty did not show strength in the upmove yesterday terminating at 50% retracement at 5258. The Breakout from the Falling wedge (CLICK HERE) was resisted by a channel.

Week Chart:

The Lead indicator has turned down and the break down of the Low of 5170 would be a channel breakdown, below Week 5 EMa, Day LEMA and 100 DMA.

With an EOD close below the week 5EMA 5220 and Day Lema of 5209, Nifty would get Bearish. The Longs are to be terminated at such a juncture.

Sell  @ 5165 ranges with SL 5190-5220 EOD close.

Developing Week Levels
CLOSE
PIVOT	5223
HI EMA	5266
LOW EMA	5143
5 EMA	5220
10 EMA	5179
PrevHigh	5258
Prev Low	5169

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5243	5 SMA	5215
PIVOT	5245	5EMA	5229
HI EMA	5253	10EMA	5237
LOW EMA	5209	13EMA	5234
prev HI	5258	20 Hr MA	5215
prev LOW	5233	50 Hr MA	5241
10 DMA	5256	100 Hr MA	5268
20 DMA	5235	200 Hr MA	5195
100  DMA	5167
200 DMA	5093

Analysis for july 19

Nifty has  found support at the 100 DMA levels yesterday and has closed above the Day Lema and Day 5EMA.

50% positional shorts were booked out at 5190 levels yesterday and aggressive longs initiated at the same levels with SL below 100 DMA. and today covered the rest in opening 5250NS.

 Retracement to be watched for the Longs taken -                   50% -5259
                                                                                               61.8% - 5280
                                                                                               78.6% - 5310
                                                                                               88.6%- 5328

Buy again in ranges of 5200 levels with SL 5180 EOD

Today EOD close below the Day HEMA below 5250 would set in weakness again.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5216	5 SMA	5214
PIVOT	5203	5EMA	5223
HI EMA	5250	10EMA	5235
LOW EMA	5197	13EMA	5233
prev HI	5223	20 Hr MA	5206
prev LOW	5169	50 Hr MA	5249
10 DMA	5264	100 Hr MA	5266
20 DMA	5231	200 Hr MA	5189
100  DMA	5169
200 DMA	5092

Analysis for July 18

NIFTY LEVELS:
Important Resistance - Day LEMA and Day 5EMA - 5210 - 5230
Important supports - 100 DMA and 200 Hr MA- 5170-5185

Total weakness below 100 DMA would lead to 200 DMA at 5090-5100.
If EOD close above 5230 - then apause in Down move.

So SL for the Positional shorts taken at 5330 levels trailed to EOD close above 5235 - 10Points above Day 5 EMA

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5193	5 SMA	5232
PIVOT	5204	5EMA	5226
HI EMA	5263	10EMA	5240
LOW EMA	5212	13EMA	5235
prev HI	5237	20 Hr MA	5222
prev LOW	5182	50 Hr MA	5262
10 DMA	5273	100 Hr MA	5263
20 DMA	5226	200 Hr MA	5183
100  DMA	5172
200 DMA	5090

Analysis for July 13

Nifty has closed below the Day Pivot, Hema and Lema. Today at EOD if the Week High EMA @ 5271 is taken out then the upmove is likely to continue - A break below the developing Week 5 EMA @ 5210 levels would be a confirmation for the breakdown of the rising wedge.

SL FOR SHORTS TAKEN ON JULY 11 AT 5330 NS REVISED TO EOD CLOSE ABOVE 5275 - WEEK HEMA.

Developing Week Levels
CLOSE
PIVOT	5267
HI EMA	5271
LOW EMA	5131
5 EMA	5212
10 EMA	5167
PrevHigh	5349
Prev Low	5218

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5235	5 SMA	5296
PIVOT	5238	5EMA	5283
HI EMA	5304	10EMA	5269
LOW EMA	5259	13EMA	5254
prev HI	5262	20 Hr MA	5291
prev LOW	5218	50 Hr MA	5296
10 DMA	5295	100 Hr MA	5246
20 DMA	5211	200 Hr MA	5151
100  DMA	5182

Analysis for JULY 11

INtraday Update 2.15 PM:

Break of today's current low of 5302 low will be breakdown of Rising Wedge!!!

Analysis for July 11:
Nifty has closed above the Pivot, Day Hema and 5 EMA. It has almost reached the top of the Rising wedge with Month HEMA at 5342 as a big resistance,

DAy charts and Hour Charts also exhibits -ve divergence and are in OverBought zone. So Caution with Longs is a must.

Aggressive Shorts taken at 5330 NS with SL Hourly close above 5345. It would be carried as positional Shorts if the EOD close is below 5345-50NS.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5345	5 SMA	5313
PIVOT	5326	5EMA	5307
HI EMA	5320	10EMA	5270
LOW EMA	5269	13EMA	5249
prev HI	5349	20 Hr MA	5301
prev LOW	5285	50 Hr MA	5297
10 DMA	5270
20 DMA	5193

Analysis for july 9

Returned from Kashi, Allahabad,dip in Holy Ganges trip Yesterday. Very very nice experience in Ganges and triveni sangamam.  After visiting the place I felt it is a must for anyone to see the beauty of Ganga. The only factor which worried me a lot is the untidiness of the place and pollution!! Will there be a way for Mother Ganga to be clean???

Nifty Has closed just above the Day and week 5 EMA and Hema - exhibiting Bullishness. It has completed a 61.8% Golden ratio retracement for the fall from 5629 - 4770. The Month Hema is ar 5325 and an EOD close above this would be very Bullish. But Caution is required with Longs as all Indicators are in Overbought zone and a little cooling off can be expected.

Todays trading range:  5265- 5295 - 5310 - 5325 - levels Day LEMA - Day 5ema - Day Hema - Month Hema respectively.

I shall update the charts and the harmonic formation charts after EOD.

Aggressive Trades:

SELL BELOW 5300 WITH SL Hourly close above 5325 -  +20 Pts + Day HEMA
BUY ABOVE 5270 WITH SL Hourly Close below 5350 - -20 Pts  Day LEMA

Week Levels
CLOSE	5317
PIVOT	5305
HI EMA	5232
LOW EMA	5087
5 EMA	5200
10 EMA	5151
PrevHigh	5334
Prev Low	5263

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5317	5 SMA	5303
PIVOT	5311	5EMA	5294
HI EMA	5308	10EMA	5249
LOW EMA	5262	13EMA	5225
prev HI	5327	20 Hr MA	5306
prev LOW	5288	50 Hr MA	5268
10 DMA	5232
200 DMA	5074