BYE BYE!!! 2011!!!

The much expected Santa Rally could not go beyond 4800 and has significantly dropped to close at 4646 for the DEC 2011 expiry.

Week Developing levels		Current Month Levels
CLOSE		CLOSE
PIVOT	4696	PIVOT	4759
HI EMA	4899	HI EMA	5321
LOW EMA	4673	LOW EMA	4732
5 EMA	4752	5 EMA	4966
5 SMA	4786	3 EMA	4836
PrevHigh	4801	High	5099
Prev Low	4640	LOW	4531

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	4646
PIVOT	4663	10EMA	4716
HI EMA	4744	13EMA	4729
LOW EMA	4671	26EMA	4793
5EMA	4698	prev HI	4787
5 SMA	4719	prev LOW	4556
20 DMA	4790	100 Hr MA	4716
20 Hr MA	4712	50 Hr MA	4707

ANALYSIS FOR DEC 20

Booked the longs at 4610NF. Closing all positions as i will not be available for the next 10 days. Whenever possible I shall give EOD updates.


PASURAM - 4 -

Nifty made a low of 4556 and bounced back upto the previous Low of 4628 and managed to close above the pivot. Today strength will remain if trading above the pivot and subsequently a close above the Day Lema at 4650 would give some strength for NS to move up. A Break and Close below the 4550 lows guarentees more downsides.

ANALYSIS FOR DEC 19

PASURAM -3:

Nifty broke the Prvious Low of 4639 - making the Possibility of a Santa rally looking Bleak. Is it really so bleak??

The Bearish Bat pattern mentioned earlier gets invalidated and two possibilites are present currently:

MARGHAZHI THINGAL

Andal of Puthur abound with swan in field Had rendered many beautiful musical lyrics of Tiruppavai; Had offered floral garland to Ranga, Having worn foremost in her tresses; Her you extol.

PASURAM - 1- MARGHAZHI THINGAL

ANALYSIS FOR DEC 16

DIAmond pattern update:

Bank Nifty 5min futures Diamond pattern:

Breakout above 8570-90 BNF. Breakdown below todays low of 8431.

HAS SANTA RALLY STARTED??!!!

Below is the December month Data from the year 2002!!!

-	Nifty	Nifty	Nifty	Nifty	Diff betw High	diff betw Low
DATE	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	and close	and Close
31.12.02	1,050.15	1,103.95	1,034.10	1,093.05	10.90	58.95
31.12.03	1,615.85	1,914.40	1,615.70	1,879.75	34.65	264.05
31.12.04	1,960.75	2,088.45	1,944.50	2,080.50	7.95	136.00
30.12.05	2,651.60	2,857.00	2,641.95	2,836.55	20.45	194.60
29.12.06	3,955.70	4,036.20	3,657.65	3,966.40	69.80	308.75
31-Dec-07	5,765.45	6,185.40	5,676.70	6,138.60	46.80	461.90
31-Dec-08	2,755.15	3,110.45	2,570.70	2,959.15	151.30	388.45
31-Dec-09	5,059.30	5,221.85	4,943.95	5,201.05	20.80	257.10
31-Dec-10	5,871.00	6,147.30	5,721.15	6,134.50	12.80	413.35

Almost every year the Close has been pretty close to the Highs!!!

Will Today's low be the bottom - an Analysis!!!

BEARISH BAT PATTERN:

As per the pattern,

XA - 5400 - 4640
B   -5099 - 61.8% retr of XA
C (current) - 4674 - 88.6% retr of AB
Projections for D:
38.2% - 4836
61.8% - 4936
88.6% - 5050.55
113% - 5154
127% - 5213

According to the pattern the ratios expected are,

B  /   C   /    D	B  /   C   /    D
0.500/0.886/1.618	0.618/0.886/1.270
0.500/0.886/2.000	0.618/0.886/1.414
0.500/0.886/2.240	0.618/0.886/1.618
0.500/0.886/2.618

Considering the above table holding the current value of C at 4672 the targets expected are,
  

127.00%	5213.75
141.40%	5274.95
161.80%	5361.65
200.00%	5524.00
224.00%	5626.00

88.6% ratio is achieved - okay - But has it got any major support strong enough for Nifty to Bounce back ??

WEEKLY chart shows a Major trendline support from the previous Lows.

A trendline from the Lows of 2252 and 2555 to today's Low of 4674  provides a good base for a major support.

 The Weekly FMACD has given a Positive Divergence.

 The Lead indicator 5D in weekly charts has triggered a buy with Positive Divergence.

Now to DAY charts:

Positive Divergence is seen in Day macd charts:

A FALLING WEDGE in Day charts:

ALL the above Charts indicate a Short term bottom.


FACTORS WHICH COULD PREVENT A RALLY AND POSSIBILITIES OF NIFTY MAKING NEW LOWS:
    Technical Factors:
1. The fast fall setup formed in Day charts on 9th DEC with the 10EMA, 13EMA and 26EMA
2. Nifty is trading well below the important TA parameters of  Day 5EMA, Week Lema and Month Lema.
 
    Events/news likely to affect:
1. Uncertainity in GLOBAL markets.
2. RBI credit policy

Only by closing above the WEEK Lema of 4783  and Day 5EMA of 4798- on DEC 16 - further upward momentum can be gained. Failure to do so would drag Nifty further down and the Break of the Head and Shoulder pattern formed in Day charts (Click Here) with neckline breakdown at 4600-4620,  would drag nifty to very deep LOWS!!!

ANALYSIS FOR DEC 15

Intraday Update :
Booked the shorts at 4690NF.


Nifty could not surpass the week Hema and Month Lema at 4838 -4833 - Made a high of 4840 and dropped down upto 4750 to close below the Day pivot and Lema - indicating more weakness. Strength would regain trading above Pivot at 4785.

The Bearish Pattern update:

FAST FALL SET UP

FAST FALL:

When the moving averages converge the smaller moving averages and the higher moving averages tend to fall in an order.
When the order of higher moving average to the lower moving average is in a descending manner then the probability of fast fall is very high and the invalidation point will be the smaller moving above the larger moving average and subsequently say in this eg - BNF trading above the highest Moving average.

FAST fall in Nifty Spot Hour:

In the above chart the 20Hour MA was moving towards the 200 MA but could not move past it which resulted in a fast fall.

Consider the below table.:
 

DATE/TIME	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	20	200
05/12/2011 10:00	5,036.50	5,049.45	5,017.80	5,022.45	4,933.57	5,046
05/12/2011 11:00	5,022.55	5,032.75	5,015.05	5,024.25	4,945.37	5,045
05/12/2011 12:00	5,024.60	5,029.75	5,002.55	5,012.15	4,955.31	5,045
05/12/2011 13:00	5,012.25	5,047.10	5,012.05	5,042.80	4,965.50	5,044
05/12/2011 14:00	5,042.75	5,055.20	5,013.40	5,019.55	4,975.67	5,044
05/12/2011 15:00	5,019.65	5,050.25	5,019.45	5,034.85	4,985.81	5,044
05/12/2011 16:00	5,035.15	5,045.75	5,032.85	5,039.15	4,989.22	5,044
07/12/2011 10:00	5,050.10	5,097.10	5,032.65	5,091.50	4,995.90	5,044
07/12/2011 11:00	5,091.50	5,091.85	5,078.50	5,088.10	5,002.32	5,044
07/12/2011 12:00	5,088.00	5,091.35	5,054.60	5,065.05	5,006.99	5,044
07/12/2011 13:00	5,065.25	5,087.95	5,060.20	5,081.35	5,013.95	5,044
07/12/2011 14:00	5,081.50	5,099.20	5,066.10	5,093.90	5,022.08	5,044
07/12/2011 15:00	5,093.75	5,099.05	5,068.20	5,072.10	5,028.84	5,044
07/12/2011 16:00	5,072.20	5,078.95	5,044.25	5,062.60	5,035.32	5,044
08/12/2011 10:00	5,037.40	5,048.90	5,027.75	5,029.85	5,039.75	5,043
08/12/2011 11:00	5,029.85	5,032.70	4,979.95	4,982.45	5,041.15	5,043
08/12/2011 12:00	4,982.55	4,987.50	4,939.00	4,967.95	5,041.15	5,043
08/12/2011 13:00	4,967.75	4,971.20	4,955.20	4,967.05	5,038.77	5,042
08/12/2011 14:00	4,967.25	4,985.55	4,942.85	4,961.15	5,035.42	5,041
08/12/2011 15:00	4,960.75	4,965.30	4,926.40	4,932.00	5,029.51	5,040
08/12/2011 16:00	4,932.10	4,963.85	4,921.65	4,943.65	5,025.57	5,039
09/12/2011 10:00	4,870.75	4,901.90	4,843.85	4,901.35	5,019.43	5,038
09/12/2011 11:00	4,901.45	4,901.70	4,864.70	4,879.50	5,012.80	5,037

From 5035 the 20 MA tried to reach the 200 MA at 5044. Then the 20 MA was 5041.15 and the 200 MA was 5043. the 20 MA could not surpass the 200 MA which resulted in fast fall.