This blog is my trading diary. It is an attempt to organise my analysis and thoughts. I follow the charting methods given in JUST NIFTY blog by Ilango sir and so the charts would have striking resemblance to his charts. I am indebted to Ilango sir for having made this blog possible for me.

July 20, 2011

Combining Day and Hour TF Harmonic Patterns to Analyse the Movement of NIfty

Combining the DAY Harmonic patterns and the Hour Patterns:



















Bullish Crab Pattern:

In the above chart - the Bullish Crab Pattern with XA 5944-5328, the possible targets the pattern could provide are:

I min tgt =  5689 -61.8% retr of CD –
This is below the Point B of the Bearish pattern with XA=5912-5195

So the second target is 76.4% retr of CD = 5775.

Bearish Butterfly pattern:

The bearish butterfly pattern starts with XA = 5912 – 5197.
XA = 5912-5197
B = 5740 = 76.4% retr of XA
Possibility 1. C = 5547 (as of now)
                      Considering the Fact that D finishes above B and not below the Point B, the min target would be 5740 = 100% retr. This almost coincides with the 200 DMA.
Normally as per the Gartley Pattern, D finishes 127% of BC = 5805. This coincides with the Month High EMA.

Possibility 2: Unless NS surpasses B at 5740 to make a D there is always a possibility of  NS making a lower C at 5468, 5404, 5325, 5258 max upto 88.6% retr of AB.To ascertain the value of C (day) the Bearish Gartley formed in Hour TF would be useful:


IN the pattern shown below the AB of the Day pattern at 5740-5497  will be the XA of the Hour Pattern.

















In the above Hour TF bearish Gartley Pattern,

XA = 5740 – 5497 = 243 pts.
 B = 5653 =  61.8% retr (5647)
 (current )C = 5551 = 61.8% retr of AB (5556.5)
Possibility 1. With C = 5551, then possible targets for D = min 100% retr = 5653
                       Next target is 127% retr = 5680.
                       Next target is 224% = 5780.

Now going back to the Day TF, the Min Target for D must be greater than 5740. So NS may find resistance at 5680 ( 40 WK SMA) levels, and as per the bearish pattern in Hour TF, would again get back to current low of 5551 or lower and then start a journey upward to complete a target of above 5740 – 5805.

Possibility 2: Next target is 224% = 5780  NS not getting resisted at 5680 but continue its journey up after a small pause or just retracing back upto 5630-40 and reaching the target of 5780 – 5800++.

The target of 5780-5805 coincides with,

  1. Month High EMA at 5802
  2. Day TF's Bullish Crab Pattern's target of 76.4% retr = 5775-80
  3. Completion of Day Bearish Butterfly pattern by reaching a point D above B and also 127% retr of XA = 5805.
 So the Possible target expected with this upmove would be 5800++

Considering EW Possibilities ,

The Wave A ended at 5177
The B wave is divided as ABC at 5944, 5197 and the new High likely to be formed at 5800+ or 5900+.Then the C wave down starts.

Made an attempt to fit all parameters in the analysis. Market is supreme. Must trade with appropriate SL  always and  keep part booking at the possible support and resistance levels.

1 comment:

AAR VEE said...

Great Post!!!

Do post a followup of this later.

Regards
RV

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