Analysis for sept 30

Nifty found support at Day Low EMA @4900 and gave a huge bounce to reach a High of 5032. This is the 127% retracement of the leg 5006 - 4908 , 20DMA and also the Sept Month Lema. Being the Month close and weekly close the important Month/ Week Levels for sept 30 are:

Week levels		developing levels	Month levels		developing levels
CLOSE	4868		CLOSE	5001
PIVOT	4955	4936	PIVOT	5091	4981
HI EMA	5165	5122	HI EMA	5704	5526
LOW EMA	4888	4845	LOW EMA	5167	5031
5 EMA	4992	5000	3 EMA	5282	5148
5 SMA	4960	5013	3 SMA	5376	5166



In the Bearish Gartley pattern 127% of retr of BC was done today at the high of 5032. Tomorrow if 5032 is taken out then 161.8% retr @ 5066 could be expected. This happens to be the trendline resistance  joining the highs of 5702 and 5169. If this is taken out then the GAP AREA from 5060 to 5113 (current week Hema) remains to be filled.

Trade Table:

	Trades Initiated
Current pattern	X - A	B	C
Developing Bearish Gartley Pattern	5169 - 4758	5006	4906
Trade initiated	SL Hr close blw 4980(Day Pvt/Day Hema )
Bought at 4985 NS	Retr of BC for D (NS)
	61.80%	4968.56	Done
	94.30%	5000.41	Done
	100.00%	5006.00	Done
	127.00%	5032.46	Booked Profits on sep 29
	161.80%	5066.56	Book PP abd trail SL to 5030
when Hour closes abv DHema - trail SL to Day Hema.

If NS closes above 5030 - month Lema then the SL for longs should be trailed to that value. If the DAY closes below 5030 then the monthly TF would remain down.

Retracement with TA parameters:

Important TA parameters for retracements
Day Hema	100.00%	5006.00
Month Lema (current)	127.00%	5032.46
Trend line resistance	161.80%	5066.56
Current Week High EMA	224.00%	5127.52

Intraday Update: 10.am

The Hour close is  4970. So the initial SL mentioned in the trade table is triggered. Now the next entry would be a Long if the Hour close is above 4980 which indicates that the momentum is up with the SL at Hr close below 4970. Else would wait for next entry level.

Short below 5060 if the levels reaches there.

Intraday Update :10.50AM:

Longs were reinitiated at 4990 NS and as it has scaled 5007 todays DHema, would trail the SL cost to cost .

DAY CHART:

If the Hour close is below 4980 NS(to which the SL is placed currently) then the Longs should be converted to shorts with a SL of 5020.NS

Intraday Update 1.30 PM

The longs are stopped out and shorts have been initiated.

The shorts can be booked near the Day Lema at 4920

Intraday Update 2.40PM:

Shorts Partbooked at 4921NF. Holding the rest of the shorts with SL at DAY CLOSE above 4960NSpot.