Analysis for OCT 13

Nifty eluded all resistances and made a huge rally to make a high of 5109.5 on Oct 12. Caution must be taken at these levels as the Hour TF and Day TF are in OVERBOUGHT mode. Also -ve divergences are present in almost all hour charts.

Nifty sustaining above 5122 would lead to 5160 -5225 - 5410 ranges. But due to the Over Bought nature in Both TF's there is likely to be a correction followed by the upmove.

Weekly Chart: Bearish Crab Pattern:

Day CHART with 5D indicator:

Asper the Day Chart above, the 5D indicator has reached the overbought level but not yet triggered a sell!! One can always use this stochastic indicator for leading. Also the high reached at 5110 NS is exactly meeting the top channel line in purple.

Hour chart with 14-RSI:

In the above Hour chart the 14 RSI is in OverBought status with prominent -ve divergence.

Based on the above conditions, a

Sell can be initiated below 5122 - 88.6% retr of OX  - initial target for C of the pattern

 or a sell below 5150-70 as it is 141% of AB - considering the previous tops.

Important Day parameters:

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5099
PIVOT	5069	5EMA	4980
HI EMA	5018	10EMA	4950
LOW EMA	4922	13EMA	4949
5 SMA	4939	26EMA	4977
50DMA	5038	prev HI	5110
100DMA	5279	prev LOW	4998
200Hr MA	4983

TRADE TABLE:

	Trade Table
Current pattern	O-X	A	B	C(current)
Bearish Shark Day TF	5169-4758	5034	4728	5109.5
Trade initiated
NIL	Retr of BC (NS)
	23.60%	5019.00
	38.20%	4964.00
	44.70%	4939.00
SELL BELOW 5122 as 88.6% of OX = 5122 -initial tgt for C as per pattern
SELL BELOW 5150-70 as 141% of AB = 5160
SL 5180-90

If NS trades above 5122 then next upsides for C
141.4% of AB	5160
161.8% of AB	5223	II TGT AS PER PATTERN
224% of AB	5413	Final tgt as per pattern

The 161.8% retr of AB coincides with the 113% retr of the weekly TF chart and similarly  224% of AB at 5413 - coincides with the 161.8% of the WEEKLY TF chart - shown above. But currently due to the OB conditions, a correction might be due before a rise to 5400 levels. The magnitude of the correction will determine the rise again. So wait and watch.

INTRADAY UPDATE 10.AM:

Shorted at 5125 NF.

Intraday Update 10.45:

If the rising wedge breakdown, it would get the channel support at 5050-40 levels, next at 4950-60 levels Breakdown of 4950 would lead to more downsides.

Intraday Update 2.00 PM

A fast rise possibilty exists at NF 5050-60 ranges. So partbooking may be considered at these levels. also it is 50 DMA support. Failure to hold 5050-40 would lead to futher falls upto 20 DMA.

PART BOOKED SHORTS AT 5070NF - NS near pivot of 5070 and also 50 DMA 

If NS continues to trade below the Day pivot/50 DMA then a sell could be reinitiated. Holding the rest of the shorts.

Intraday update 3.20 PM:

Expecting the close to be below 5080 - the current week's Hema. Unless a new high is made this value would not change. So adding to the shorts coverd in mid day  - current SL close above 5130. After EOD would analyse for revised SL.