This blog is my trading diary. It is an attempt to organise my analysis and thoughts. I follow the charting methods given in JUST NIFTY blog by Ilango sir and so the charts would have striking resemblance to his charts. I am indebted to Ilango sir for having made this blog possible for me.

January 17, 2012

ANALYSIS for JAN 17

50% SHORTS taken AT 4940NS with SL DAY  close above 4960NS.

The Bearish Bat pattern has completed its 161.8% retr target - started from Jan 2(click here)



This has given possibility of  formation of  Bullish ABCD Reciprocal Pattern. (CLICK HERE for details about pattern)

 



 The testing of the upperchannel of the rising wedge along with a 5wave impulsive move,
100 DMA at 4937,
Month 5EMA and 5SMA at 4960 and 4945 respectively all indicates Huge resistance at 4940-60NS levels.

A 50% correction say upto the levels of 4750-70 NS  would give rise to a Huge Upmove - where the Bearish Shark Pattern of Day TF would play its part.


The 50 % reracement would reach near the trendline joining the O & A of the above chart and it would reach 5150++ levels to complete the Bearish shark Pattern at the Pink Trendline joining the previous highs of 5740 - 5400.


Week levels 
CLOSE4866
PIVOT4820
HI EMA4876
LOW EMA4714
5 EMA4787
10 EMA4838
PrevHigh4899
Prev Low4695




PositionalTrade Table 
Current patternA-BC(current)
Bullish ABCD Reciprocal4801-45884969.75 161.8% retr of AB
Trade initiatedDay Close above 4960 
Shorted at 4940NS Proj. for D 
 38.20%4810.00
 161.80%4768.00






January 15, 2012

HAPPY PONGAL !!!!

 

 
HISTORY OF PONGAL:
Pongal is an ancient festival of people in South India particularly Tamils. The history of the festival can be traced back to the Sangam Age i.e. 200 B.C. To 300 A.D. Although, Pongal originated as a Dravidian Harvest festival and has a mention in Sanskrit Puranas, historians identify the festival with the Thai Un and Thai Niradal which are believed to have been celebrated during the Sangam Age.

Observance of Pongal During the Sangam Era (Thai Niradal)
The celebrations of Sangam Era led to today's Pongal celebrations. As part of the festivities, maidens of the Sangam era observed 'Pavai Nonbu' at the time of Thai Niradal which was a major festival during the reign of the Pallavas (4th to 8th Century AD). It was observed during the Tamil month of Margazhi (December-January). During this festival young girls prayed for rain and prosperity of the country. Throughout the month, they avoided milk and milk products. They would not oil their hair and refrained from using harsh words while speaking. Women used to bath early in the morning. They worshiped the idol of Goddess Katyayani, which would be carved out of wet sand. They ended their penance on the first day of the month of Thai (January-February). This penance was to bring abundant rains to flourish the paddy. These traditions and customs of ancient times gave rise to Pongal celebrations.

Andal's Tiruppavai and Manickavachakar's Tiruvembavai vividly describe the festival of Thai Niradal and the ritual of observing Pavai Nonbu. According to an inscription found in the Veeraraghava temple at Tiruvallur, the Chola King Kiluttunga used to gift lands to the temple specially for the Pongal celebrations.

Legends of Pongal
Some legendary stories are also associated with Pongal festival celebrations. The two most popular legends of Pongal are stories related to Lord Shiva and Lord Indra.

According to a legend, once Shiva asked his bull, Basava, to go to the earth and ask the mortals to have an oil massage and bath every day and to eat once a month. Inadvertently, Basava announced that everyone should eat daily and have an oil bath once a month. This mistake enraged Shiva who then cursed Basava, banishing him to live on the earth forever. He would have to plough the fields and help people produce more food. Thus the association of this day with cattle.

Another legend of Lord Indra and Lord Krishna also led to Pongal celebrations. It is said when Lord Krishna were in his childhood, he decided to teach a lesson to Lord Indra who became arrogant after becoming the king of all deities. Lord Krishna asked all the cowherds to stop worshiping Lord Indra. This angered Lord Indra and sent forth his clouds for thunder-storms and 3 days continuous rains. Lord Krishna lifted Mount Govardhan to save all the humans. Later, Lord Indra realized his mistake and divine power of Krishna.

Pongal Celebrations
According to Hindu mythology, this is when the day of the gods begins, after a six-month long night. The festival is spread over three days and is the most important and most fervently-celebrated harvest festival of South India. A special puja is performed on the first day of Pongal before the cutting of the paddy. Farmers worship the sun and the earth by anointing their ploughs and sickles with sandal wood paste. It is with these consecrated tools that the newly-harvested rice is cut.

Each of the three days are marked by different festivities. The first day, Bhogi Pongal, is a day for the family. Surya Pongal, the second day, is dedicated to the worship of Surya, the Sun God. Boiled milk and jaggery is offered to the Sun God. The third day of Pongal, Mattu Pongal, is for worship of the cattle known as Mattu. Cattle are bathed, their horns polished and painted in bright colors, and garlands of flowers placed around their necks. The Pongal that has been offered to the Gods is then given to cattle and birds to eat.
WHAT IS PONGAL?
Pongal is the only festival of Hindu that follows a solar calendar and is celebrated on the fourteenth of January every year. Pongal has astronomical significance: it marks the beginning of Uttarayana, the Sun's movement northward for a six month period. In Hinduism, Uttarayana is considered auspicious, as opposed to Dakshinaayana, or the southern movement of the sun. All important events are scheduled during this period. Makara Sankranthi refers to the event of the Sun entering the zodiac sign of Makara or Capricorn.

In Hindu temples bells, drums, clarinets and conch shells herald the joyous occasion of Pongal. To symbolize a bountiful harvest, rice is cooked in new pots until they boil over. Some of the rituals performed in the temple include the preparation of rice, the chanting of prayers and the offering of vegetables, sugar cane and spices to the gods. Devotees then consume the offerings to exonerate themselves of past sins.

Pongal signals the end of the traditional farming season, giving farmers a break from their monotonous routine. Farmers also perform puja to some crops, signaling the end of the traditional farming season. It also sets the pace for a series of festivals to follow in a calendar year. In fact, four festivals are celebrated in Tamil Nadu for four consecutive days in that week. 'Bogi' is celebrated on January 13, 'Pongal' on Jan 14, 'Maattuppongal' on Jan 15, and 'Thiruvalluvar Day' on Jan 16.

The festival is celebrated for four days. On, the first day, Bhogi, the old clothes and materials are thrown away and fired, marking the beginning of a new life. The second day, the Pongal day, is celebrated by boiling fresh milk early in the morning and allowing it to boil over the vessel - a tradition that is the literal translation for Pongal. People also prepare savories and sweets, visit each other's homes, and exchange greetings. The third day, Mattu Pongal, is meant to offer thanks to the cows and buffaloes, as they are used to plough the lands. On the last day, Kanum Pongal, people go out to picnic.

A festival called Jalli kathu is held in Madurai, Tiruchirapalli and Tanjavur,all in Tamil Nadu, on this day. Bundles of money are tied to the horns of Pongal ferocious bulls which the villagers try to retrieve. Everyone joins in the community meal, at which the food is made of the freshly harvested grain. This day is named and celebrated as Tamilian Tirunal in a fitting manner through out Tamil Nadu.

Thus, the harvest festival of Pongal symbolizes the veneration of the first fruit. The crop is harvested only after a certain time of the year, and cutting the crop before that time is strictly prohibited. Even though Pongal was originally a festival for the farming community, today it is celebrated by all. In south India, all three days of Pongal are considered important. However, those south Indians who have settled in the north usually celebrate only the second day. Coinciding with Makara Sankranti and Lohri of the north, it is also called Pongal Sankranti.
 
 
 

January 13, 2012

Analysis for Jan 13

Intraday Update 2.30 PM:
Nifty Futures made a High of 4917 and the target for Bearish Bat Pattern is almost over. Now as 61.8% retr of 5400 - 5431 is also done at 4899NS, More upsides will be only on Close above 4880 and then the Bearish Shark Pattern of the Day TF would Take over. 

Now retracements of the upmove from 4588 - 4899 must be watched for further pattern development.

NS has resisted exactly at channel top. Missed to watch it earlier. So Terminating the Longs AT COST TO COST.



Intraday Update 2.00 PM:
The SL for Longs is placed at DAy Close below 4860 NS- today's Day HEMA and 50 DMA. Book profits at 4920-30 NS as it is 100 DMA.





Intraday update 12.45 PM:




Intraday update 12.15:
Nifty has gathered support at Day Hema at 4834 so Initiated 50% longs at 4860NF


Intraday Update 11.15 AM:


Todays High -4868 -50 DMA
Today's Low - 4834 -Day Hema.
The range would be resolved by a breakout on either sides. If 50 DMA upsides breakout -then 4932 possible. If it breaks then 4775 - 47NS.



ANALYSIS FOR JAN 13:

Nifty yesterday closed just below the Day Hema and Pivot yesterday - signalling ST weakness.

Week levelsDeveloping levels
CLOSE4754CLOSE
PIVOT4712PIVOT4801
HI EMA4864HI EMA4869
LOW EMA4638LOW EMA4657
5 EMA47485 EMA4776
10 EMA483210 EMA4831
PrevHigh4795 High4877
Prev Low4695LOW4695



Considering the weekly developing levels - Nifty is trading well below the Week 5 EMA and Pivot. Weakness would set in on weekly basis if NS closes below the week 5EMA. Today If 4869 -week HEMA is attempted and could not close above it- which also corresponds to 50 DMA - then there would be a Pause in the upmove.

So as per the weekly levels NS is in trading range between 4800 - 4870.Break of either sides would lead to huge moves.





CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE4831
PIVOT483510EMA4781
HI EMA483813EMA4772
LOW EMA477426EMA4781
5EMA4813prev HI4877
5 SMA4808prev LOW4842
200 Hr MA4770100 DMA4938
100 Hr MA474350 DMA4869
50 Hr MA478320 Hr MA4843



PositionalTrade Table
Current patternX-ABCD(current)
Bearish Bat pattern Hour TF5099-4531480145884877 - 127% of BC
Trade initiated
If 4877 broken upwards then proj for D
141.40%4889.00
161.80%4932.00



If NS trades below 4877 then  projections for downsides
23.60%4808.00
38.20%4766.00
44.70%4748.00


If the Day close is above the Day Hema and subsequently above weekly Pivot then a Positional long could be inititated as upsides are possible.

For Intraday:
Sell Below 4860NS with SL 4880NS - 50 DMA and weekly Hema
Buy above 4830 with Sl 4810NS - Day 5EMA

January 12, 2012

Analysis for Jan 12

The Longs were terminated at 12.00 noon as close was below 4830 as per yesterday's table.


CHECK LIST-DAY      
CLOSE 4861    
PIVOT 4860   10EMA 4770
HI EMA 4823   13EMA 4763
LOW EMA 4759   26EMA 4777
5EMA 4804   prev HI 4877
5 SMA 4791   prev LOW 4842
200 Hr MA4774   100 DMA 4941
100 Hr MA 4736    50 DMA 4879
50 Hr MA 4767             20 DMA 4716



Today Nifty has made a low of 4804 corresponding to the Day 5 EMA.






ST Bullish scenario: A crossover of the 20 & 50 Hr MA over 200 Hr MA. NS has retested the trendline from which the breakout took place at 4804. Supports here would lead to good moves.

Bearish Scenario: Trading well below the 50 DMA.




January 11, 2012

Analysis for Jan 11

Intraday Update 1.15 PM:


In Nifty Hour charts convergence of MAs are present. The 20Hr MA has just crossed over the 200 Hr MA but the 50 Hr MA is fast approaching the 200 Hr MA. If Fast fall develops then huge down moves if crossover happens then huge upmoves. 


If Nifty trades above the 50 DMA @ 4887 and week Hema of 4864 and closes above it then the crossover is likely to take place.


Intraday Update 10.30 AM:

Nifty has made a high of 4864 corresponding to the week Hema - which is also the 38.2% retr from 5400 - 4531. A pause is likely here so Partbooked at 4870NF and Trailing the remaining SL to Close below 4825 Day Pivot.




BEARISH BAT PATTERN:




CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE4850
PIVOT482510EMA4750
HI EMA479613EMA4746
LOW EMA471826EMA4771
5EMA4775prev HI4856
5 SMA4769prev LOW4769
200 Hr MA4775100 DMA4944
100 Hr MA472150 DMA4889
50 Hr MA473320 DMA4711




PositionalTrade Table
Current patternX-ABCD(current)
Bearish Bat pattern Hour TF5099-4531480145884795 - 94.3% of BC
Trade initiatedSL revised to Day close below 4795 Day HEMA
reentered Longs at 4795NF(10 Jan)If 4795 broken upwards then proj for D
113.00%4828.00
127.00%4858.00Achieved
141.40%4889.00Book PP
161.80%4932.00


BOOK PARTIAL PROFITS WHEN NS REACHES 4882-90 AS IT IS 61.8% RETR OF THE LEG 5099 - 4531 CORRESPONDING TO 50 DMA AND TRAIL SL TO 4825 DAY PIVOT


Trade Table
Current patternO-XAB(current)
Bearish Shark pattern5400 - 463950994531
Trade initiated
Projections for C
50.00%4815.00
61.80%4882.00
70.70%4932.00
78.60%4977.00



IMPORTANT TA parameters for projections
127.00%4858.00week HEMA
141.40%4889.0050 DMA
161.80%4932.00100 DMA