This blog is my trading diary. It is an attempt to organise my analysis and thoughts. I follow the charting methods given in JUST NIFTY blog by Ilango sir and so the charts would have striking resemblance to his charts. I am indebted to Ilango sir for having made this blog possible for me.

September 23, 2011

Analysis for Sept 23

Nifty fell with a big thud and is yet to see more downsides. In the Bullish Shark pattern Nifty has reached 100% retr in Day TF and more than 161.8% in Hour TF. Owing to Global conditions Nifty is likely to gap down today also. This might give the levels of 4850-70 which comes to 200% retracement in Hour TF.



The Lead Indicator 14-RSI would help in spotting the reversal.



Important Week  parameters:

prev weekdeveloping levels
CLOSE5084
PIVOT50465000
HI EMA51645165
LOW EMA49174914
5 EMA50545011
5 SMA49554971


Important Day Parameters:

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE4924
PIVOT49645EMA5037
HI EMA510410EMA5041
LOW EMA500313EMA5040
5 SMA506326EMA5068
20DMA5018prev HI5060
50 DMA5211prev LOW4908
50Hr MA5050
100Hr MA5046


Trades Initiated
Current patternO-XAB
Bullish Shark pattern4978 - 515350175170
Trade initiated - sept 21sept 23 - SL - Hr cl Abv 4955 -W5sma
Shorted Below C at 5160Retr of AB for C
161.80%4922.45
200.00%4864.00Book Profits
224.00%4827.28
Book Profits at 4850-70  trail SL to close above 4910 - prev close


Day TF retracements 94.43%4925.37
for 4911 -5169113.00%4877.46
127.00%4841.34
161.80%4751.56

Intraday Update: 10.45AM:


Booked profits at 4865NF.

Intraday Update 11.45:

224% retr achived in Bullish Shark pattern at 4827 in Hour TF. So a Buy is initiated at this level with SL Hour close below 4800NS.




Intraday update 3.15 p.m

The long initiated at 4835NF was Partly booked at 4920 as yesterday's closing level was reached and did not give any hourly close above it.












2 comments:

manojag said...

Dear Satheesh,
Have been following your pattern analysis with great interest. Have apoint to make here:

On Thursday at 1.43 p.m.at Just Nifty you wrote:

satheesh said...
@ SAM,

When all are Bearish - the Last Wave BC reaches its max target and it will be easy to fish from there!! BIG and HUGE fishes can be caught!! :)

The max target you had given was 127% of AB which worked out to 4922.

Many people at JN have either gone long or cut their shorts based on your above views.
Request you to please give point of invalidation or give all the possible targets so that people can make a proper judgement and then take a call.
Cheers

satheesh said...

@ Manojag,

Thanks a lot for your interest. I have been giving only the immediately achievable targets till now where one could book partial profits. Also after i started posting the Trade Initiated tables i had been giving the part booking levels and Stoploss too.

In harmonic patterns based on the formation of B and C, D can be the retracement starting from a min of 38.2% to 361.8% max. it would not be advisable to give all retracements as targets at one shot-becoz it would be grossly misleading - the main reason being one cannot Predict definetley what target would be achieved.

I had mentioned in the intraday update of thursday " A Buy could be initiated in minimum Qty with SL Week 5MA at 4955. If 4955 is broken on Hourly closing basis then the Longs must be terminated.

Intraday update: 3.00 pm
The long is terminated at 4945."

Always please make a note of the SL as the invalidation point.

In case you have any doubt during trading please do askme. i shall try my best to clarify it.

I hpoe I have clarified your doubt.

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