This blog is my trading diary. It is an attempt to organise my analysis and thoughts. I follow the charting methods given in JUST NIFTY blog by Ilango sir and so the charts would have striking resemblance to his charts. I am indebted to Ilango sir for having made this blog possible for me.

November 1, 2011

Analysis for 1 Nov 2011

The Monthly close yesterday was well above the Monthly pivot, 5EMA and Month Lema. NS is yet to reach the Mnth Hema @ 5484.

The Month Parameters are,


Month Levels
CLOSE5328
PIVOT5152
HI EMA5484
LOW EMA4930
5 EMA5273
5 SMA5280
PrevHigh5401
Prev Low4729


NS closed below the Day Pivot yesterday indicating Weakness. Trading below today's pivot would lead to more weakness.


As per Hour TF,

XA = 5011 -5400
If A =5400 holds, then projection for B,
23.6%  - 5308
38.% - 5251.4
44.7% - 5226
50% - 5205
The 38.2% corresponds to the Day 5ema and 44.7% corresponds to the Day Lema. If NS finds support at these levels then a Bounce back is likely which would lead to the Bullish crab pattern in Hour TF.

So a Buy above 5260 with SL below Day Lema @ 5225 or sell below 5380 - 5400 with close above 200DMA as SL would be the ideal trades.

Week levelsDeveloping
CLOSE5361
PIVOT5282PIVOT5334
HI EMA5206HI EMA5257
LOW EMA4956LOW EMA5075
30wk MA53505 EMA5199
40WK MA53835 SMA5152
PrevHigh5400
Prev Low5085


CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE5328
PIVOT533410EMA5184
HI EMA528713EMA5156
LOW EMA522326EMA5095
5EMA5254prev HI5360
5 SMA5236prev LOW5315
100 DMA5238
200 DMA5407
20 Hr MA528250 Hr MA5173

Trade Table
Current patternO-XABC(current)
 Bearish Shark Day TF 5169-4758503447285400
Trade initiated
NILProj of BC with C @5400Abv 5400next levels
23.60%5241.00224% of AB5415.00
38.20%5143.00161.8% of OX5423.00
224% of OX5678.00

As per week TF the 161.8% projection of 4169 - 4728 comes to 5441

Sell below 5400 with SL close above 5410
Buy above 5260 with SL Close below 5220


Intraday Update: 11.30 AM:

1. A Low of 5277 approx  38.2% proj of 5011 - 5400, is made in NS - above week Pivot.
2. NS trading above the week Pivot of 5282
3. Close of 10 and 11 am is above the DAy Hema
Hence 50% of Longs is initiated at 5290 NS i.e., 5320 NF.

Intraday Update : 1.15 PM:

The 38.2% retr is done in Hour TF - If this Holds then a bounce upto 5286/5307/5323
SL for Longs - Hourly close below 5235 NS - 100 DMA.












1 comment:

satheesh said...

Ravi,

GM. Thanks for your interest. You had asked "How to trade based on these levels"?. A million dollar question which every trader yearns to learn!!. Well I shall explain how I trade.

After spotting the pattern - i mark the possible projections and wait for a confirmation to enter the trade by matching it with important TA parameters mainly Day PIVOT, HEMA and LEMA - which I mention in the trade table.

when NS holds the particular level then I initiate the trade accordingly.

Always watch out for the important TA parameter numbers - put it down in a paaper and get ready for trade. It really helps.

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