Analysis for Nov 9

Intraday Update 3.00 PM:

NS has almost reached 88.6% at 5225. Part booking can be done at 5240 NF.

Intraday Update 12.00 noon:

NF in a very small range within a triangle. Breakout of triangle to result in inv H&S.

Bullish view: The previous chart's triangle viewed from the low of 4728 - it look like a pennant - contracting triangle -which is a continous pattern!!

Bearish view: Fast fall is developing!! -

Intraday Update 10.15 AM:

With a High of 5317 till now NS has reached the top of the triangle but 10.am closed below the Day Hema of 5303. With a Hourly close above 5305-5320 the shorts can be terminated and a Long can be initiated.


TAKING A BABY STEP IN LINKING  EW COUNTING & HARMONIC PATTERN:

A trading range has developed within a triangle between 5310-20 to 5270-60. A breakout on either side is required for any moves.

In the above chart, the Bullish Bat pattern is marked in Blue Dotted lines. If the Current C holds at 5325, then as per harmonic ratios,

XA = 5011 - 5400

B = 5202 - 50% of XA

C = 5325 - 61.8% of AB.

Then the max Projected D is 161.8% retr of BC.

The Projections are:

61.8% - 5248

88.6% - 5215
127% - 5167

161.8% - 5127

Now as per EW counts,

IF:

wave a = 5400 - 5201,

wave b = 5201 - 5325

then wave c = minA = 5325-200=5125 - which corresponds to max projection of D in harmonic patten - This level corresponds to the 20 DMA /26 Day EMA.

The above analysis is valid if 5325 holds.

If 5325 is breached then the C of the Harmonic pattern is likely to reach 5377 - 5425  near the 200 DMA.

If 5400 is crossed the it is likely to form a Bullish shark pattern. As per EW count the new C would form the wave b. Then the count for C would vary accordingly.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5289
PIVOT	5282	10EMA	5236
HI EMA	5302	13EMA	5213
LOW EMA	5234	26EMA	5145
5EMA	5273	prev HI	5304
5 SMA	5279	prev LOW	5252
100 DMA	5229	20 DMA	5146
200 DMA	5397
20 Hr MA	5273	50 Hr MA	5288

	Trade Table
Current pattern	X-A	B	C (current)
Bullish Bat pattern	5011 - 5400	5202	5325
Trade initiated	SL close above 5325 NS
Sold @ 5345NF	Proj for D
	61.80%	5248.00	PP booked on Nov 8 5275 NF
	88.60%	5215.00	Book PP
	113.00%	5184.00
	127.00%	5167.00
Trade between 5325 - 5270 - a triangle formation
Buy above 5330 with SL 5303 Day Hema

Projections for C if NS trades above 5325
30 wk MA	61.8% of AB	5324.00
prev Week High	88.60%	5377.00
200 DMA	113.00%	5425.00