Analysis for Oct 18

Nifty made a High of 5160 almost equal to the Sept Month High (141.6% retracement) and faced resistance and made a Low of 5085 exactly at week Hema @ Day Hema and closed at 5118 just below the pivot of 5121.

Closing below the pivot shows signs of weakness and closing below the Day Hema @ 5110 would add to the weakness.

 Considering yesterday High @ 5160 - the week Hema figures out tobe 5109. So a close below 5100 is likely to trigger off a sell upto the 50DMA @ 5012 or the Day Lema @ 5027.

The SAR for the trade initiated at 5110NF is Hr close below 5080. If triggered the shorts can be partbooked at 4995-4967 levels corresponding to 38.2% retracement of the rise from 4728 -5160.

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5118
PIVOT	5121	10EMA	5023
HI EMA	5110	13EMA	5009
LOW EMA	5027	26EMA	4995
5EMA	5074	prev HI	5160
5 SMA	5080	prev LOW	5085
50DMA	5012
100DMA	5268
50Hr	5023	200Hr MA	4995

	Trade Table
Current pattern	O-X	A	B	C(current)
Bearish Shark Day TF	5169-4758	5034	4728	5160
Trade initiated	SL close below 5080
Bought @ 5110NF	Retr of BC (NS)		Retr of AB
	23.60%	5058.00	141.40%	5160.00
	38.20%	4995.00	161.80%	5223.00
	44.70%	4967.00	224.00%	5413.00
If SL Hit at 5080 then SAR with SL Close above 5085

Important TA parameters for retracements
Week pivot	23.60%	5058.00
D.26ema/200HrMA	38.20%	4995.00
20DMA	44.70%	4967.00
Month Lema	50.00%	4944.00

If NS trades above 5160 then next upsides for C
Prev High	141.40%	5160.00
Month 5ema	161.80%	5223.00	II TGTas per pattern
200DMA	224.00%	5413.00	Final tgt as per pattern

With the break of 5080 in closing basis the Bearish Shark pattern would be considered complete and the next pattern would gain upperhand based on HOUR TF which shall form as price unfolds.

Intraday Update 9.30 AM:

On basis of 9.30 closing below 5080 the Longs are terminated at 5060NF and position reversed to short with SL 5085NS  as all ST indicators Hr 5D, 14Rsi, 9 RSI all triggered short.

Intraday Update 12.45PM
4995 is the 38.2% retracement for the rise from 4728 -5160. It coincides with 26Dema and 200Hr MA.
Indicators:
hR 34d - 51.5
   14 RSI - 39.8
   9RSI - 24
   SMACD moving towards zero!!
If 4995 is supported then an intraday rally is possible.

Intraday Update 1.15 PM:

Partbooking of Shorts can be done at 4990-5000. Trail SL to Day Lema @ 5030 for the shorts.

Intraday Update 2.45:

TRADING time BETWEEN 5024 -Day Lema/50 DMA and 5110  -Week High EMA. Either sides breakout would give trending moves where Positional trades would be rewarding.

A close below the DAy Low ema at 5020 would lead to more downsides.