Analysis for Oct 19

Nifty Had a Big gap down opening yesterday and found support at Day Lema/50DMA/26Dema (4995-5005) corresponding to approximately 38.2% retracement (4995) of the leg 4728-5160.

If the Low of 5011-4995  holds today then Nifty is likely to reach upto the Day Hema of 5085-95 levels.

Breaking of yesterday's low would lead Nifty to 20DMA at 4968 breaking of which would lead to Month Lema of 4930.

Based on the strength of trading above pivot 5034 Longs can be initiated with SL close below 5010. Strict SL should be maintained for the Longs.

A Bullish crossover of the 50Hr MA over 200Hr ma has occured favouring short term bullishness. the 100MA is still below the 200MA and if it moves over 200MA then it would be bullish else a fast fall is likely to happen. So the Longs must be held with caution booking profits at appropriate times.



A Bullish Pattern has formed in the Hour TF. Holding the present low NS is likely to move towards 5080-5105 - Day Hema - week Hema. Trading above pivot gives strength. Trading below pivot/Day low ema will be weakness.

 So, Longs can be initiated above the Pivot at 5034 with SL below 5010.

Important paramenters for the Day:

CHECK LIST-DAY
CLOSE	5038
PIVOT	5034	10EMA	5026
HI EMA	5093	13EMA	5013
LOW EMA	5022	26EMA	5007
5EMA	5062	prev HI	5058
5 SMA	5093	prev LOW	5011
50DMA	5005
100DMA	5265
50Hr	5045	200Hr MA	4994

TRADE TABLE:

	Trade Table
Current pattern	X-A	B(current)
Probable Bullish Pattern in Hour TF	4728 - 5160	5011
Trade initiated
NIL	Retr of AB (NS)
	38.20%	5067.00
	50.00%	5085.00
	61.80%	5103.00
Buy above 5040 SL Hour Close below 5010

Important TA parameters for retracements
Week pivot	38.20%	5067.00
Day Hema	50.00%	5085.00
Week Hema	61.80%	5103.00

If NS trades below  5011 (B)  then next downsides for B
38.2% of 4728 - 5160	4995.00	50 DMA/200Hr MA
50.00%	4944.00	Mon Lema
61.80%	4893.00	Prev week Low

Intraday Update 10 AM:

Due to the Gap Up opening NS has reached 61.8% retr of AB at 5101 high. - this corresponds to week Hema. If the bullish Hour pattern is coming to play a resistance might be faced at this juncture and NS might move down.

So a short is initiated for intraday at 5095 NS with SL 5115 NS - week Hema.

The retracements to watch are:

38.2% - 5066
61.8% - 5045
78.6% - 5030 -
The 61.8% and 78.6% corresponds to Day Pivot and a Long can be initated here again

Intraday update 12.30 PM:

The Hour close was not above 5115 NS so the shorts are continuing. NS has made a high of 5125 which corresponds to 78.6% retr of AB. So the SL is raised to  Hour close above 5125 considering the PRZ of the pattern.



The retracements to watch are:

 If C Holds at 5125 then D's
38.2% - 5081
44.7% - 5074
61.8% - 5054
88.6% - 5024

Intraday Update 2.15 PM:

If the Right shoulder is to form then the Bullish crab pattern would get completed. If NF trades above 5135 then it would gain strength and the chances of the sholuder formation would be minimised.

5min chart update:

Nf went Past the neckline (red dashed line) and has reached the Purple line at 5157 which is almost 100% retracement. Tomorrow If NF trades above the purple line then it is a inv H & S breakout. Else the formation of next shoulder in the following days!!

TODAY's LESSON LEARNT:

When NS trades firmly above the Day Hema even if the range is between 20 - 30 points - More steam on higher side can be expected and must wait to enter a counter trades. The shorts were entered early today at 5095NS.